As the House impeachment of President Donald Trump becomes more of a forgone political conclusion it’s worth considering what terms and conditions Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will extract in order to preserve a Trump Presidency.
Most political pundits will not correctly outline the status of the possibilities, because most political pundits are willfully blind to the structure of the McConnell Senate.
First, McConnell doesn’t care about holding a majority position in the Senate.  Whether he is a majority leader or a minority leader doesn’t matter to McConnell. In fact McConnell’s political skill-set does better in the minority than the majority.
The preferred political position for Mitch McConnell is where he has between 45 and 49 republican Senators, and the Democrats hold the Majority with around 55.  Of course with Reid’s retirement, this would now be with Majority leader Chuck Schumer holding office.
Why does McConnell prefer the minority position?
The answer is where you have had to actually follow Mitch McConnell closely to see how he works.   When the Majority has around 52 to 55 seats, they need McConnell to give them 8 to 9 votes to overcome the three-fifths (60 vote) threshold for their legislative needs.  It is in the process of trade and payment for those 8 to 9 votes where McConnell makes more money, and holds more power, than as a sitting Majority Leader.
The 60 vote threshold, and McConnell’s incredible skillset in the minority, is where he shines.  Each of the needed votes to achieve sixty is worth buckets of indulgence to the minority leader.  This is why McConnell never changed the Senate rules for legislative passage.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on CNBC earlier today to discuss the status of U.S-China trade discussions, the latest issues with tariffs on French goods, and the bigger picture issues within the EU that we previously discussed.
Ross highlights the additional tariffs on China scheduled for December 15th are currently still planned to take effect unless something substantial changes in the position of China.  Additionally, and interestingly on the French and EU tariffs, Secretary Ross reminds the financial pundits of the $7.5 billion WTO authorized award against the EU that would be in addition to the $2.4 billion in tariffs now scheduled for French products.

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Pay attention to what Ross says in that interview; the administration is being remarkably open and consistent.  Given the adversarial position exhibited by French President Emmanuel Macron today; and against the backdrop of continual EU intransigence on trade reciprocity; I suspect once the USMCA is passed we are going to see a *severe* shift in tone within the U.S. trade position toward both China and the EU.
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The act that President Trump signed today is a law that requires the U.S. to review all of the democracy issues within Hong Kong to assess whether any Chinese violations to Hong Kong autonomy are happening.  If so, the U.S. can take remedial steps to punish China.

The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act would require the State Department annually re-certify Hong Kong’s autonomous nature, in order for the so-called “special treatment” the U.S. affords Hong Kong to continue. (more)

Keep in mind a dual purpose to this latest move:  Hong Kong holds a special trade status with the U.S. and is exempt from tariffs placed on China.  Part of the punitive action President Trump could take against China involves tariffs against Hong Kong.

Today, I have signed into law S. 1838, the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” (the “Act”). The Act reaffirms and amends the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, specifies United States policy towards Hong Kong, and directs assessment of the political developments in Hong Kong.
Certain provisions of the Act would interfere with the exercise of the President’s constitutional authority to state the foreign policy of the United States. My Administration will treat each of the provisions of the Act consistently with the President’s constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations.
~  President Donald J Trump

Again, back to the big picture, is this an action that would indicate President Trump is actually looking for a U.S-China trade agreement?   Of course not.  So why now, what changed?…  The USMCA!   It’s all connected folks.

The New York Federal Reserve made a quiet admission two days ago that was missed by almost all financial media.  In the NY Fed economic blog they admitted everyone was wrong, President Trump’s 2017 tariffs against China did not lead to increased U.S. consumer prices [Read Here].  The Fed also said imports of the Chinese products affected by U.S. tariffs have fallen by an annualized $75 billion. That’s a huge chunk of business U.S. purchasers have shifted to Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.

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Within this dynamic lays the real reason why Beijing cannot wait for a 2020 election hoping that Biden or Bloomberg can stop their bleeding.  Before going into more depth, this brief explainer from Charles Payne will help establish a framework.  WATCH:
What Payne outlines is correct; however, the internal Chinese ‘tariff-offset’ dynamic is actually even a little deeper.  Overlaying the NY Fed research we can see that Beijing has attempted to offset the Trump tariffs in four majority ways:
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Steve Bannon appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the pros and cons of a partisan impeachment.  Bannon was one of the early political observers who identified the likely entry of Mayor Michael Bloomberg into the 2020 race.
Bannon notes that Bloomberg has enough money to outlast the field; however, I doubt Bloomberg can fill a venue. If there’s no connection to the base party voter, candidate Bloomberg just can’t win the primary.

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I can’t stop laughing…. just too darned funny.  CTH has long outlined how President Trump has taken the decades-long panda-mask game/approach of Beijing and mirrored it right back upon them.  Today Chinese Coucillor Wang Yi, while delivering a strongly worded statement to G20 ministers, is positively verklempt in his open admission therein.
Our President Trump is the only person who could have delivered this wonderful outcome… well done.  Beijing is very angry about how a U.S. President is disrupting a new world economic order that China has so artfully manipulated for the past two decades.

It is simply beyond delicious.

(Reuters) – The United States is the world’s biggest source of instability and its politicians are going around the world baselessly smearing China, the Chinese government’s top diplomat said on Saturday in a stinging attack at a G20 meeting in Japan.
Relations between the world’s two largest economies have nose-dived amid a bitter trade war – which they are trying to resolve – and arguments over human rights, Hong Kong and U.S. support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss two key economic and trade issues: (1) the current status of U.S-China trade discussions “round one”; and (2) the status of USMCA ratification (Pelosi’s delay).
Nothing in the China trade discussion is solid, until everything in the China trade discussion is settled; this is one of the key aspects to President Trump’s directive to USTR Robert Lighthizer.  No deal is a more favorable outcome than the construct of a trade deal that cannot be enforced.
On the USMCA ratification, again it all falls upon the politics of Pelosi.  The agreement would pass tomorrow if it were put up to a vote; there is no controversy.  Speaker Pelosi is holding back the ratification vote for pure political purposes.

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USMCA ratification is the first domino in long-chain of ‘America First’ economic benefits. As soon as USMCA passes a wave of North American investment will surge. The downstream consequences includes leverage for U.S-China, U.S-Europe, U.S-India and U.S-U.K trade agreements.
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Steve Bannon appears on Fox News to discuss the ongoing impeachment issues with Maria Bartiromo.  Within the discussion Bannon highlights the larger position about how Trump’ America-First foreign policy is antithetical to the one-way interventionist model that ultimately provides U.S. politicians with a process to sell their office to the benefit of foreign governments.  The Biden-Ukraine issue is a direct example of that process.
Everything about POTUS Trump’s policy is against the business model that allows DC politicians to trade U.S. foreign policy for their own financial benefit.  Trillions at stake.
Bannon correctly points out that only public pressure is going to force change upon the swamp. President Trump is a vessel for a process to stop DC corruption; but the DC politicians themselves will never vote to diminish their own interests. That’s the issue with the republicans in the Senate during an impeachment trial.

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On the Democrat race I agree with Bannon on 90% of his presentation, except I would replace “centrist” with Wall St (multinationals) and Hollywood. The Dem party is fueled by multinational interests and Hollywood support that is aligned with China and multinationals et al. With Biden falling they are trying Buttigieg; if that doesn’t work, they’ll need someone to hold/protect their interests.
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a plan, at least the collective ideology behind her has a plan.  Her recent trip to Jordan and Afghanistan are part of that plan; everything is essentially connected.    Pelosi will do whatever is needed to hamper the U.S. economy in an effort to weaken President Trump’s relection bid.  Blocking the USMCA is part of that aspect.
The visit to Jordan and Afghanistan was purposeful ground work in preparing to seed the narrative that President Trump’s withdrawal from mid-east conflict is evidence of dangerous foreign policy.  Again, just like the USMCA stall, the larger goal is to weaken the President in advance of 2020.  Everything is connected.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to be realizing the Democrat’s hatred for ‘America-First’, which weakens their personal financial position, is their driving ideology.

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Hat Tip OverTheMoonbat for making sure we didn’t miss this segment from last week.  This video also explains why Larry Kudlow, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross and Peter Navarro have tended to spend more time discussing economic policy with CNBC analysts than Fox Business.   However, before watching, it is worth revisiting the background.

For three years CTH has explained the challenge in dealing with, or renegotiating with, the Beijing, China ideology.  Encapsulated thus in 2018:

[…] China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.
China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.
Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.
If it does not benefit China, it is not done !

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