Day One Schedule – President Trump Delivers Opening Remarks – Davos, World Economic Forum – 5:30am Livestream…

President Trump traveled overnight to Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum.  [Livestream Links and Daily Schedule Below] I found it very interesting that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was not on the Dec. delegation list.
The U.S. Delegation includes: Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin; Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross; Labor Secretary, Eugene Scalia; Transportation Secretary, Elaine Chao; U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer; Under Secretary for Growth, Energy and Environment (DoS), Keith Krach; Asst to the President, Ivanka Trump; Asst. to the President, Jared Kushner; and Asst. to the President / Deputy for Policy Coordination, Christopher Liddell.
The 2020 Davos economic conference will be a little more important to watch this year (as it was in 2017) due to the completed U.S. Trade Agreements (S Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and China) and the predicted focus for the Trump administration to pivot from Asia to the EU and U.K. for the next critical phase of the ‘America-First’ global trade reset.
There will likely be a great deal of attention upon the opening remarks by President Trump scheduled to be delivered at 5:30am ET / 11:30am Switzerland.
UPDATE: Video Added


(more…)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Discusses U.S-China "Phase-One" Trade Reforms – Compliance Standards…

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appears on FOX Business to discuss the U.S-China ‘phase-one’ trade agreement, the benefits, enforcement mechanisms and retention of tariffs and particular sanctions until compliance can be reviewed.
Phase-1 establishes the baselines; resets the ability of U.S. companies to enter China; establishes rules for market entry; and sets the parameters for enforcement.  Any future phase is contingent upon evaluation of phase-one enforcement mechanisms.


(more…)

Sunday Talks: Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses Sanctions Against Iran and Upcoming U.S-China Trade Signing…

Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the latest round of sanctions against Iran.  Secretary Mnuchin notes the economic engagement by China with Iran may open up Beijing to countermeasures for violating sanctions.
Additionally, Secretary Mnuchin outlines some aspects of the U.S-China ‘phase-one’ trade agreement and affirms the key point of enforcement mechanisms built into the agreement by U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer.  The official signing is this coming Wednesday.


(more…)

Taiwan Votes to Retain Freedom From China – Tsai Ing-wen Easily Wins Re-election…

The results of a massive turnout vote in Taiwan reflect the country wishes to remain free from the overbearing influence of communist China.

(Hong Kong Free Press) […] Taiwan’s incumbent leader Tsai Ing-wen has won Saturday’s presidential election, defeating her Beijing-friendly rival Han Kuo-yu by a wide margin.
[…] With 8.1 million votes as of 10:30pm, Tsai won the highest number of votes of any presidential candidate in Taiwan’s history of democratic elections. Han, on the other hand, received just over 5.5 million votes, according to the Central Election Commission (CEC).

(more…)

MAGAnomics – U.S. Trade Deficit Drops 8.2% in November to $43.09 Billion…

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here]  Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion.  Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers.  During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal.  This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory.  We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold.  Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
(more…)

China's Communist State Council Promises to Offset Economic Slowdown…

Perhaps the status of the economy in China is even worse than many have suspected.  An interesting public statement from their State Council today highlights a promise by China to support jobs during their current economic downturn.

Against the backdrop of Hong Kong’s protests toward Beijing oppression, a rebellion of the people against the command authority is the single-most feared action by those in charge of government.  If the economy is in worse position than previously thought, this latest statement might explain some of Beijings’ recent trade and economic concessions.

(Reuters) – China will step up support for employment to cope with rising pressure on job security due to internal and external challenges, the cabinet said on Tuesday, as the world’s second-largest economy slows.
Simultaneous downturns in the services and manufacturing industries pose a major problem for authorities seeking to keep a lid on unemployment and prevent social unrest as economic growth decelerates to near three-decade lows.

(more…)

President Trump Tweet Signals Ongoing Hostage Negotiations…

An interesting tweet from President Trump today with a clearly coded message to North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un.  Within the message President Trump notes an ongoing dialogue with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping about Kim’s status.

The hostage negotiations happening against the backdrop of a negotiated ransom, the U.S-China “phase-one” trade agreement:

BEIJING (Reuters) – China will make good on a pledge to purchase more than $40 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products under the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal between the two countries, China’s top agriculture consultancy said on Friday.

(more…)

Germany Frets – China Threatening German Auto Industry if Huawei 5G is Blocked…

At the same time Beijing is reportedly promising internal reforms to retain access to a vital and necessary U.S. market for Chinese goods, Beijing is threatening Germany if they block Huawei technology from their 5G network China will announce German autos are unsafe for import…. Chancellor Angela Merkel is in a pickle.

According to Bloomberg analysis, German automakers sold approximately seven million cars to China in 2018.  The Chinese Ambassador to Germany said this weekend: ” “If Germany were to take a decision that leads to Huawei’s exclusion from the German market, there will be consequences. The Chinese government will not stand idly by.”

(SCMP) […] The Chinese ambassador in Berlin has stirred up a fresh controversy over the tech giant Huawei after he threatened “consequences” if it was excluded from Germany.

(more…)

Rare Interview – U.S. Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer Explains "Phase One" of U.S-China Trade Deal…

USTR Robert Lighthizer made a rare appearance in the media to discuss the “big picture”, and some specifics, around the U.S-China phase-one agreement.
Ambassador Lighthizer notes the principle challenge is generating an enforceable set of standards -within a written agreement- between a totally controlled communist economic system (China) and a free-market system (USA).  No other nation has ever tried, and there is no preexisting trade agreement to facilitate a mapping.  What Lighthizer is constructing will be what all nations will start to use going forward.  This is historic stuff.
Arguably, next to President Trump, USTR Lighthizer is one of the most consequential members of the administration. What he is constructing, with the guidance of President Trump, is going to influence generations of Americans.


.
[Transcript] MARGARET BRENNAN: This week, the U.S. and China agreed on the first phase of a trade deal that would roll back some American tariffs. It’s expected to be signed in early January. We’re joined now by the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, the top negotiator in those talks with Chinese officials. Good to have you here.
U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT LIGHTHIZER: Thank you for having me, MARGARET.
(more…)

USTR Releases Summary "Fact Sheet" Outlining U.S-China Phase One Agreement…

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has released a two-page summary fact sheet [pdf link here] outlining the “Phase-One” agreement in principal.  From research into the material the principal agreement appears to be an 86-page document covering nine chapters.  The fact sheet covers the top lines of seven chapters:

(more…)