In 2015 CTH outlined how candidate Donald Trump’s proposals were in-line with those who had long argued for a return of “economic nationalism”.  We also outlined when those proposals (now policy) are implemented, Fed action would be essentially irrelevant.

The Federal Reserve is pegged to the Wall Street Economy.  President Trump’s policies are pegged to the Main Street Economy.  There is a disconnect; a new dimension in U.S. economics; and very few people understand what happens in this space between them.
Thirty-five years ago Fed monetary policy impacted the U.S. economy directly because almost all activity (durable good manufacturing) was within our borders.  The natural dynamic of inflation could be influenced by the Fed.  Rate changes could offset inflation and also enhance domestic investment etc.
However, as time progressed that manufacturing activity -the basic underpinning of middle-class jobs, wages etc- shifted overseas.  When monetary policy became controlled by multinationals (Wall Street influencers purchasing politicians), capital investment moved to generate purely higher profits.  Businesses, specifically manufacturing, went abroad.  As a consequence the determination of prices, ie ‘inflation’, was no longer influenced by the Fed because the actual economic activity was/is outside the U.S. borders.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
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It was only a matter of time before someone explained how the Chinese advisors to Chairman Xi Jinping are using President Trump’s inability to hold the coup plotters accountable as evidence they can wait out the President.
This is the crossover, where a lack of accountability for “Spygate” now begins to negatively influence the geopolitical, economic and strategic position of President Trump.  However, there’s an upside to this dynamic….
In several interviews the president has noted his preference to keep the DOJ and FBI issues at a distance and deferred action to others. The economic reset is President Trump’s #1 priority.  If Trump identifies the lack of DOJ and FBI accountability as an impediment to the economic program, he may become much more engaged.

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SHANGHAI—Plodding progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week is partly the result of a new tactic from Beijing, which increasingly thinks waiting may produce a more-favorable agreement.

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Last night President Trump gave a lengthy 26 minute interview to C-Span and journalist Steve Scully. [Full Video Here] Here’s some video excerpts from the interview:

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Former Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker appears with Lou Dobbs to discuss ongoing issues in/around the DOJ and FBI.
Matt Whitaker notes the corrupt members of the FBI/DOJ who have left the institution; but stops short of criticizing current FBI Director Chris Wray. Whitaker expresses strong support and respect for John Ratcliffe’s nomination to ODNI.
Whitaker positions himself as an advocate for transparency, but is careful not to be critical of those in the DOJ and FBI who are working diligently against releasing documents that would actually bring about transparency.  The implied message is that declassification of material will ultimately force transparency…. [but he doesn’t say it].

…Every minute spent outraged at what Comey, McCabe or Muller did yesterday, is one minute less that Bill Barr is being held accountable for what he is not doing today…

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The financial media still doesn’t get it… Obviously! Transfixed and jaw-agape at seemingly at-odds aspects to a new engagement with Beijing, the MSM financial media are clueless. They are genuinely disconnected, and have no idea what is going on.
The majority of financial pundits are perplexed at what they can see on the surface. USTR Robert Ligthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are beginning discussions with Beijing. Meanwhile President Trump’s tweets seem to dismiss the potential of the deal-making. The media call this mixed-messaging; however, that’s not what this is.

Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful last week when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First trade policy, there’s was a very clear picture. However, as we expected, most pundits and trade analysts ignored the administration message.
Commerce Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class when he said the current objective for Mnuchin and Lighthizer was to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.
That was a big tell.
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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, there’s big news in here.  Actual Bombshells! For real Tick Tocks and much much more….

Former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker appeared on Fox News to discuss the replacement of Dan Coats with John Ratcliffe as head of the ODNI, and the current status of AG Bill Barr’s ongoing reviews into prior DOJ and FBI (mis)conduct.
Whitaker posits the placement of Ratcliffe as looking at the aggregate intelligence apparatus and seeing if there “are systemic issues and failures for how the investigations were kicked-off”; and the engagements with other countries (FBI and CIA).
Additionally Whitaker summarizes U.S. Attorney John Durham as focused on the origin of the intelligence operation against candidate Trump and “prosecuting anyone that needs to be prosecuted“.  [By the way, that seems to confirm Durham as an official “investigation”, not a “review”.]
Then comes the BOMBSHELL…. (@01:26 below) while seemingly not realizing what he just said, Whitaker outlines U.S. Attorney John Huber as reviewing “anything related to Comey’s memos and the like.”  Boom… There it is.
THAT finally explains why the DOJ is fighting the release of the David Archey declarations in the FOIA lawsuit by CNN.  [Listen carefully at 01:26 of the interview]

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Until that obscure comment, likely a slip that not many would catch, there has been no valid explanation by the DOJ about any investigation of the Comey memos, which would also encompass the “Archey Declarations”.
If U.S. Attorney John Huber is indeed looking at those Comey memos, that would explain why the DOJ is fighting the release of the Archey Declarations in the DC Circuit Court with Judge James E Boasberg.  Now it makes sense.  That little obscure comment by Whitaker is a big effen’ deal.
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Speaking to WMAL radio, former U.S. Attorney Joe diGenova informs the audience that declassified documents will begin to be made public starting Wednesday July 31st.
Additionally, Mr. diGenova states confidently that U.S. Attorney John Durham is not conducting a “review”, but is conducting a full criminal investigation with a grand jury empaneled and currently receiving testimony from witnesses.
The comments come at 04:58 of the audio/video below [Prompted just hit play]

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Obviously Joe diGenova is making a very specific statement with measurable and specific action to come on very specific day.  Good news !!

On May 23rd, 2019, President Trump gave AG Bill Barr unilateral authority to declassify documents.  A month later, against the backdrop of more evidence surfacing showing corruption within the DOJ and FBI (June 14th, 2019), and with a negative balance in the trust account, twenty three House republicans asked President Trump not to wait.
Here’s the list of material possible for declassification, and the intelligence offices who hold custodial authority over the compartmented documents. This was the original list as outlined in 2018:
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Representative John Ratcliffe tweets a statement after President Trump announces his nomination for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI):

There has been some speculation that ODNI Dan Coats needed to step aside because he was refusing to comply with the declassification process.  It’s worth waiting to see if that assumption is accurate, or if the speculation is unfounded.  However, there is validity to the speculation based on the structure of how executive declassification is done.
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Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh was touring some of the congressional district of Elijah Cummings in 2018 when she said:

…”What the hell – we should just take all this shit down. Ooh, you can smell the rats”…

h/t Michael Sheridan – WATCH:

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