In June 2018 President Trump instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to initiate a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods (Round #1).  After two months of China refusing to negotiate renewed trade deals in good faith President Trump instructed Lighthizer to increase the tariff rate to 25% in August (Round #2).  There is a third tranche of tariffs scheduled for January 1st, 2019.

With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the results are now measurable.  A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf below), identified that approximately 4.5% of the tariff is being carried by American consumers.  The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.

(Via Bloomberg) President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.
That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.

(more…)

The most consequential long-term challenge being confronted by President Trump surrounds the influence of communist China, and their state-controlled economic conquest strategy.
To quantify the scale of the issues, in 2017 President Trump commissioned a Section 301 review by the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  In March 2018, Lighthizer delivered his report.  That initial report became the baseline for the tariffs levied against Beijing.  Yesterday, Lighthizer released an update of that ongoing review.  The report is below:
[scribd id=393902698 key=key-kjNtouzB6djFEcPBapQB mode=scroll]
.
Remember, the Chinese red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. Cunning is part of ‘The Art of War’.
President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.
(more…)

An article published originally in the U.K. Telegraph, and republished via Yahoo News outlines growing fear within the U.K. government and British intelligence officers surrounding President Trump discovering how far they were involved within “Spygate”.
The facts are not uncommon to anyone who has done research into the events of 2015 and 2016; however, the interesting aspect surrounds the current level of anxiety which indicates something is soon to become very public.
The central concern of the British officials surrounds President Trump declassifying evidence that will outline a coordinated effort by a weaponized U.S. intelligence apparatus to use their foreign counterparts for two aspects:  (1) to spy on the Trump campaign in 2016; and (2) to help carryout an entrapment scheme that would become the baseline for the FBI’s counterintelligence operation which evolved into Mueller’s Russian election interference investigation (aka. the “insurance policy”).
According to the Telegraph outline the current U.K. Prime Minister is intentionally being kept out of the communication loop because British intelligence are fearful President Trump might ask about her knowledge.  Keeping Theresa May blind to the U.K operations against Trump provides plausible deniability if questioned.  Additionally, all British embassy staff in the U.S. have been told to say absolutely nothing if questioned.
(more…)

CTH has pointed, repeatedly, toward a very specific economic and financial dynamic  because President Trump is uniquely focused on Main Street’s “real economy“.
Everything happening in/around the financial markets is very predictable when you focus on understanding the principles of Main Street MAGAnomics and how those basic principles diverge from Wall Street’s “paper economy” (currently weighted by tech stocks).

Everything is happening in a very predictable sequence. Few understand the MAGAnomic reset and what was predicted to happen in the space between disconnecting a Wall Street economic engine (globalism and multinationals) and restarting a Main Street economic engine (nationalism/America-First).  In 2016 CTH explained where we would be today. With current Wall Street events, perhaps it is worthwhile remembering the CTH forecast.

Originally outlined far more than a year ago. Reposted by request on Oct 11th.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; however, many have been visible for a long time – some even before the election victory in November ’16.  What is happening within the financial markets should not be a surprise.
If we get too far in the weeds the larger picture is lost. Our CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.
(more…)

If you want a prelude to how the democrat/globalist/left-wing political machine is gearing up to disrupt any U.S. economic success, here it is.   With the opportunity to discuss important and consequential economic initiative with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Yahoo Chief Narrative Engineer, Andy Serwer, runs through a litany of political talking points.

.
There has been some banter about the possibility of Wilbur Ross being replaced next year, possibly by Mick Mulvaney.  While all such media speculation should be taken with a grain of salt, this interview highlights the foreseeable landscape of confrontation.
(more…)

Reposted by request – There are massive multinational interests inherently at risk from President Trump’s “America-First” economic and trade platform. Believe it or not, President Trump is up against an entire world economic establishment.
When we understand how trade works in the modern era we also understand why the multinational control agents within the current system are so adamantly opposed to U.S. President Trump.  In essence, this is a structural economic battle that is being waged politically.
The biggest lie in modern economics, willingly spread and maintained by corporate media, is that a system of global markets still exists.
It doesn’t.

Every element of global economic trade is controlled and exploited by massive institutions, multinational banks and multinational corporations. Institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and World Bank control trillions of dollars in economic activity. Underneath that economic activity there are people who hold the reigns of power over the outcomes. These individuals and groups are the stakeholders in direct opposition to principles of America-First national economics; for brevity these are called ‘globalists’.
The modern financial constructs of these entities have been established over the course of the past three decades. When we understand how they manipulate the economic system of individual nations we begin to understand why they are so fundamentally opposed to President Trump and their execution of a business plan to influence U.S. politics.
(more…)

Some call it ‘Globalism vs Nationalism’, at other times it is best described as “Wall Street -vs- Main Street”; however, the overarching bigger picture is a battle over economics and the financial power structures that oppose President Trump.
CTH has often said ‘everything is about the economics’, because it is. Ask the ‘why’ question five times to any issue and you will find the root issue is money.  Power, greed and control, it is all about the money and the economics.
Opposition to President Trump’s singularly unique and transformational reset of the U.S. economic system boils down to a battle against the ‘Big Club’.

Every political confrontation is a move within this dynamic. The structural battle is not based on party affiliation, it is based on control and ownership of economics.  This confrontation represents the biggest challenge; a brief example:
Hundreds of millions were spent on the 2018 election by owners within the ‘Big Club’; at a surface level those expenditures are discussed by punditry thus: “we were outspent” (insert Kevin McCarthy and/or Ronnda McDaniel here). But if you have followed the challenge more closely, over the course of years/decades, you have a more substantive understanding of the dynamic.
Billionaires on one side of the UniParty spend hundreds-of-millions in opposition to the MAGA agenda. That agenda, that economic agenda, is the existential threat to the Big Club’s grip on power.
Here’s the critical aspect: When it comes to the economics, there are no big spending billionaires on the nationalist side of the equation.  The interests of Wall Street Democrats and Wall Street Republicans are based on globalism; Wall Street not Main Street.
(more…)

At the White House today President Trump participated in the Diwali Ceremonial Lighting of the Diya, the Hindu festival of lights.  Anyone paying close attention to the Trump administration over the past two years will note the warmness expressed toward India and Hindu.
We should all pay close attention because you might not see it now, but this will have a direct impact in your household.  While the action by the President is an open and genuine expression of cultural respect and warmth, there is also a stunningly not subtle geopolitical aspect via President Trump’s background diplomacy/strategy to use India (remember: “indo-pacific) as leverage in the larger Red Dragon confrontation.
India is key part of Trump’s counter-strategy that deconstructs Chairman Xi’s One-Belt/One-Road approach toward global economic conquest. Keep watching:

.
[Transcript] Roosevelt Room – 2:04 P.M. EST – THE PRESIDENT: I am thrilled to be here for the celebration of Diwali, the Hindu Festival of Lights, and I am honored to host this beautiful ceremony at the White House. Very, very special people.
(more…)

Success in the midterm election secured power for House Democrats.  The discussion then moves to how are the democrats going to use that power?  Representative David Cicilline, co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, indicates their intended set of priorities in a series of Sunday talking points.
Democrats in the House intend to raise taxes on individuals and corporations; roll back the MAGAnomic policy for corporate tax incentives (investment, jobs, and manufacturing) and create a bigger gap between low and top income earners through their spending controls.  In essence, Democrats take control over income earnings (via tax policy) and distribute it to their constituents based on need. [Historic Fabian approach]
Simultaneously, the House committees (Oversight, Judiciary, Intel, Finance) will begin immediate investigations of the Trump administration, writ large, and -using those investigations- secure the pathway to the 2020 election cycle.

.

Cecilline admits OUR CTH PROJECTION is entirely accurate.

(more…)

The words from Peter Navarro will come as no surprise to any CTH reader who is fully engaged and reviewing the multi-trillion stakes, within the Globalist (Wall St.) -vs- Nationalist (Main Street) confrontation.
For several decades Wall Street, through lobbying arms such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (Tom Donohue), has structurally opposed Main Street economic policy in order to inflate profits and hold power – “The Big Club”. This manipulative intent is really the epicenter of the corruption within the DC swamp.
U.S. National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro discusses how Wall Street bankers and hedge-fund managers are attempting to influence U.S.-China trade talks. He speaks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
[wpvideo 0kCDXSwK]
Originally outlined a year ago. At the heart of the professional/political opposition the issue is money; there are trillions at stake.
President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; however, many have been visible for a long time – some even before the election victory in November ’16.
(more…)