CBS via YouGov has released a series of battleground polls for New York, Pennsylvania and California (full pdf’s below). Interestingly the polls are not identical questionnaires; instead they appear geographically nuanced, specifically on the Democrat queries.
However, there are some rather interesting trend similarities which are embedding as the campaigns of the three remaining republican candidates take on increased importance:
- The electorate has made up their mind. There is only about 3% of the electorate who might change their vote. There will not be any “surging” per se’.
- Donald Trump’s overall appeal is across all demographics and internal ideologies.
- Donald Trump wins with women voters, and higher information political consumers.
- Very Importantly – Trump is seen as most authentic and capable as a political change agent.
- Trump also leads with Hispanic voters in California, and absolutely crushes the competition with the Asian electorate.
- The most important issue in all three states (NY, PA, CA) are jobs/economy. And economic voters are overwhelmingly Trump voters. (Trump also leads on the alternative issues – second place: security/terrorism)
- Conversely, Ted Cruz is seen as the most “inauthentic” candidate in the race.










