House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy appears on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss several ongoing political issues.
In the first two-thirds of the interview Leader McCarthy discusses Iran attacking the Saudi oil facility, and the ramifications therein. Speaker Nancy Pelosi holding back the USMCA hoping to get past the Canadian election; and the current field of 2020 democrat candidates. McCarthy holds the opinion that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democrat candidate for President.
In the last third of the interview (@11:15) McCarthy discusses the upcoming IG report on FISA abuse.  McCarthy believes: Andrew McCabe will be indicted; the IG report will identify culpability for James Comey, and the construct of a soft coup will be highlighted.

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This is funny in so many ways; especially for CTH readers who have a far better-than-ordinary understanding of the big picture Trump goals around China.
(1) CNBC tweeted this story last night (note the date/time). (2) It is written exclusively from the perspective of the Goldman Sachs analysts who represent the U.S. multinational position. (3) However, the article was actually written on May 12, 13, 2019.

What is funny about CNBC pushing this story, NOW, is how the claims within the CNBC story can be fact checked; and their predictions are, well, absurd (especially in hindsight).   Keep in mind this was written in May, and tweeted last night for some reason:

(Via CNBC) “Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.

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Former WH strategist, Steve Bannon, appears in DC at a “Clear and Present Danger China” event to discuss China.
The first half of the Bannon’s presentation reflects why he had to leave the white house; reactionary, influenced by media, vulnerable to fake news, and lacking stability.  However, the second half of the video reflects why Mr. Bannon was a valuable strategist.
[Video prompted to 06:26 – just hit play]

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Iranian backed Houthi terrorists used ten drones to attack Saudi oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province.  The attack caused Saudi Arabia to shut down half of their crude production facilities; repairs are underway.

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In response to the attack President Trump called Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MbS) to offer his support:

White House – Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to offer his support for Saudi Arabia’s self-defense. The United States strongly condemns today’s attack on critical energy infrastructure. Violent actions against civilian areas and infrastructure vital to the global economy only deepen conflict and mistrust. The United States Government is monitoring the situation and remains committed to ensuring global oil markets are stable and well supplied. (read more)

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From the first moment when he announced his intent to run for President of the United States in 2015, Donald Trump was very clear on one specific aspect to his view of why people would vote for him.  As a candidate, he repeated it often:

So the reporter said to me the other day, “But, Mr. Trump, you’re not a nice person. How can you get people to vote for you?”
I said, “I don’t know.” I said, “I think that number one, I am a nice person. I give a lot of money away to charities and other things. I think I’m actually a very nice person.”
But, I said, “This is going to be an election that’s based on competence, because people are tired of these nice people. And they’re tired of being ripped off by everybody in the world.”

President Donald J Trump continues to highlight that message today:

It’s funny, from time-to-time people ask “how is CTH consistently able to predict what Donald Trump will do about a complex issue”?  In reality the answer is simple, go back and re-read his hour long campaign kick-off speech. [See Here]
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The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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In a quiet admission of food dependency, China purchased 600,000 tonnes of soybeans yesterday (link), and simultaneously announced that U.S. pork and soybean imports would be exempt from further tariff increases.
The surface message Beijing is selling, surrounds their magnanimous panda narrative of reaching out to diminish trade friction.  However, below the surface everyone knows China cannot feed itself,and if food prices keep rising they could likely have growing unrest.

Beijing’s decision to not enhance tariffs of pork and soybeans is very self serving; particularly because China owns Smithfield foods, the largest producer of U.S. pork.  In essence China has lessened tariffs against their own company.

(SCMP) China has announced that it will exclude imports of US soybeans, pork and other farm goods from additional trade war tariffs, opening the door for significant purchases of agricultural products.
The official Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday that China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce made the exemption in response to the US’ decision of postpone an increase in the tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese goods from October 1 to October 15.

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During an interview with Fox Business Maria Bartiromo White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro outliness how the USPS, the postal system, has been heavily subsidizing “incoming mail of a number of countries to the tune of hundreds of million dollars a year.”  Navarro notes he is meeting with foreign ambassadors and representatives of the State Department at the Blair House in Washington, D.C., to work on changes to the current mail system.
Additionally, Navarro explained that he will be traveling to Geneva, Switzerland, on Sept. 23 for a third “Extraordinary Congress” and there will be two issues/options on the ballot: (1) allows all countries in the postal union to self-declare rates, ending a terminal dues system that costs countries to subsidize incoming mail. (2) A “multispeed approach,” allowing the U.S. to self-declare rates immediately.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy.  These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports.  In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected.  The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.

 

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A series of very strong internal economic evaluations today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) show the Main Street economy is perfectly positioned with maximum benefit to the U.S. middle-class.
First, despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, saying Trump tariffs on China would create massive inflation…. It Ain’t Happening!  Overall year-over-year inflation is hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; that’s a low inflation rate.  Rate has firmed up now with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate remains consistent.   [See Below]

A couple of important points.  First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative.  Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector… Except ‘food at home’.
Which brings us to the second important point.  Notice how food prices have very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent.  That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:
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