The Trump Doctrine is easiest to describe as: deploying economic leverage to achieve national security interests.  The Trump Doctrine is unique and stunningly effective.

Many of the geopolitical decisions have multiple facets which connect like small gears on a much larger machine.  One of those small dual-purpose gears is the Doctrine as it is applied to Pakistan.  The downstream moves impact China, our #1 geopolitical and economic adversary, then Russia, and also support new alliances with India and the broader Middle-east.

Toward China = ♦Squeeze #3. In 2017 Trump and Secretary Tillerson, now Secretary Pompeo, put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. The U.S. removed $900 million in financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.  [NOTE: Last month the World Bank began discussions about a financial bailout for Pakistan.]  Again, more one-way bleed for China. {Go Deep}

When President Trump removed the $900 million in aid to Pakistan, he empowered the Pentagon via Defense Secretary James Mattis, with an option to give $300 million to Pakistan if Mattis felt positive steps were being taken to change behavior.  Today the Pentagon announces no change in behavior is noted:
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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has submitted a regulatory 90-day notification to congress outlining the intent to modify the U.S. trade deal with Mexico according to mutually agreed terms.
However, the Canadian trade priorities; including retention of protectionist tariffs (dairy) and non-regulatory barriers (telecom/banking); in combination with subsidies (lumber/aeronautics), make Canada joining the deal almost impossible.

Canada is scheduled to meet with Lighthizer again on Wednesday, but it seems very doubtful the political needs for Justin Trudeau would allow any three-way agreement.
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There’s an Associated Press report published today presenting a ridiculously slanted version of the Bruce Ohr testimony from the perspective of two leaking democrat congressional staffers who were present. However, if you fly passed the nonsense narrative engineering, and go way down in the article you might note this (emphasis mine):

[…] One of the meetings he recounted was a Washington breakfast attended by Steele, a Steele associate and Ohr. Ohr’s wife, Nellie, who worked for the political research firm, Fusion GPS, that hired Steele, attended at least part of it.
[…] That breakfast took place amid ongoing FBI concerns about Russian election interference and possible communication with Trump associates.
[…] That revelation prompted the FBI to open the counterintelligence investigation on July 31, 2016, one day after the breakfast but based on entirely different information.  (link)

Breakfast with “a Steele associate” on July 30th, 2016.
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U.S. Trade Represenative Robert Lighthizer releases a statement announcing the administration is filing a NAFTA Section 2202 trade modification “notification of intent” letter to congress:

Washington, DC – U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today issued the following statement regarding the status of trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada:
“Today the President notified the Congress of his intent to sign a trade agreement with Mexico – and Canada, if it is willing – 90 days from now.  The agreement is the most advanced and high-standard trade agreement in the world.  Over the next few weeks, Congress and cleared advisors from civil society and the private sector will be able to examine the agreement.  They will find it has huge benefits for our workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses.
“We have also been negotiating with Canada throughout this year-long process.  This week those meetings continued at all levels.  The talks were constructive, and we made progress.  Our officials are continuing to work toward agreement.  The USTR team will meet with Minister Freeland and her colleagues Wednesday of next week.”  (link)

Under the original 1993 terms and Chapter 22 of the Implementation Act, Lighthizer notifies congress that trade parties have modified the terms; this is the Section 2202 notification of modification. Ninety days after the date of the notification the U.S. and Mexico can sign the new terms of agreement; congressional approval is not required. [Canada can still join the U.S-Mexico agreement but they need to act fast.]
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Deploying her best cutesy high school routine at the Canadian Embassy in Washington DC, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland gives an update on the state of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States.
The presentation is fraught with *tells* highlighting how every word is carefully selected through the prism of domestic politics. Chrystia now heads back to Canada for debriefing, discussion and poll-testing of Canadian sentiment. She will meet again with USTR Lighthizer next Wednesday with an answer as to whether or not to include Canada in the 2202 notification.

Continual emphasis on the severity of Canadian politics is needed to understand the latest developments in the U.S-Canada trade negotiations.
The Trump administration set a deadline of today for Canada to join the U.S-Mexico trade agreement and make the NAFTA replacement agreement a three-way pact.  The concessions needed by Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland to join the agreement were politically devastating.

In order for Canada to accept or join, via a NAFTA 2202 modification, they would need to agree to the U.S-Mexico modification terms. For Canada they would have to:

• open their telecommunications and banking sector (eliminate non tariff barriers).
• eliminate soft-wood (lumber) and aeronautics subsidies.
• begin a process of lowering their assembly use of Chinese/Asian goods.
• accept the rules of origin for North American manufacturing.
• eliminate protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products.
• accept the U.S-Mexico terms for arbitration and dispute resolution.

President Trump and U.S. Lighthizer are holding all the cards.  As we previously highlighted they don’t care if Canada doesn’t join; the U.S. would likely prefer to send congress a NAFTA 2205 withdrawal notification removing the U.S. from the original 1993 NAFTA construct in combination with a simultaneous 2202 modification notification for the U.S-Mexico side of the agreement.
This would allow the U.S. to go into a one-on-one trade negotiation where six months and a day from the 2205 notice. The U.S. would then apply 25% auto tariffs on Canadian made vehicles while negotiating a bilateral deal. Canada is in a very weak negotiating position; politics are paramount for the Canadian team; their exit needs political cover.  Media need to help the optics for the Canadian team.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks Friday, August 31, 2018 about the Canadian perspective on trade negotiations with the U.S. – Everything about the Canadian position is framed through the prism of politics not economics. Virtue signalling is the primary tactic.
Trudeau and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland are in a tenuous position, they cannot accept the terms of the U.S-Mexico deal because they cannot afford to drop the protections and carve-outs within their highly controlled and subsidized economy. Canada would have to: drop telecommunications and banking barriers; drop protectionist tariffs on Dairy and agricultural products; and drop subsidies for the lumber and aeronautics industry.

Well, there’s yet another promise kept.  Candidate/President Trump always said he would deploy the “killers” to renegotiate trade deals:

…‘When it comes to negotiating, “Robert Lighthizer is a vicious son of a bitch.”…

~Gordon Ritchie

Somehow I think this type of criticism will only elevate U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in the eyes of President Trump.
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It will be very interesting when the joint committee releases the transcript from Lisa Page and Bruce Ohr.   In another article containing information from Bruce Ohr’s closed-door testimony we highlight two key points (emphasis mine):

Kim Strassell – […] Congressional sources tell me that Mr. Ohr revealed Tuesday that he verbally warned the FBI that its source had a credibility problem, alerting the bureau to Mr. Steele’s leanings and motives. He also informed the bureau that Mrs. Ohr was working for Fusion and contributing to the dossier project.

The admission that Nellie Ohr was contributing to the dossier is a really important specific point.  We always suspected some of the dossier content was attributable to Mrs. Ohr, this confirms that suspicion.
Additionally, on the day before Mr. Ohr testified to congress, embarrassingly the New York Times launched a proactive defense surrounding his predicted testimony; within the August 27th article they cited Fusion GPS as a source saying Nellie Ohr never worked on the dossier (see screengrab):

(article link)

Whoopsie…
Obviously Mr. Ohr did not tow-the-media-predicted-line.
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Last Sunday Representative Darrell Issa was being interviewed by Maria Bartiromo about the testimony of Bruce Ohr when Issa innocuously said that Nellie Ohr was working for Fusion GPS in 2015.  Previous to that statement by Issa the timeline for Nellie Ohr working with Fusion GPS began in April of 2016 (simultaneous to Fusion beginning the contract work for the Clinton Campaign and sub-contracting of Chris Steele).

If the 2015 date was correct, this was a big deal; a VERY BIG deal.  Well, today amid other revelations within an excellent report by Chuck Ross at the Daily Caller, the 2015 date is confirmed:

[…] Republicans pressed Ohr about how his wife, a Russia expert named Nellie Ohr, came to work for Fusion GPS.
Ohr testified that Fusion approached his wife for a job and that she began working for the research firm in late 2015. California GOP Rep. Darrell Issa said Ohr testified that his wife was paid $44,000 by Fusion GPS. As TheDCNF has reported, Ohr did not disclose his wife’s Fusion income on his annual ethics disclosure form.

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