As of the 2:00pm Advisory – Florence remains a weakened tropical storm as massive amounts of rain and flooding continue to be a problem for North Carolina and South Carolina. “Rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.”
Florence is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the east of the center in heavy rain bands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. (more)

According to the latest 2:00pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center Florence remains a hurricane with 75mph winds as it meanders on the coast slightly southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.  Coastal communities on the Northern (top side) of the storm are dealing with severe coastal erosion and storm surge; those communities on the Southern (or bottom) of the storm fortunately have outflow winds.
Because Florence is essentially on the border of the Carolinas, the North Carolina coast is being hammered with inbound winds, storm surge and coastal erosion. The South Carolina coast has outbound winds and little storm surge.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over water. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland.
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Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8 West. 50 miles south of Moorehead City, 60 miles east-south-east of Wilmington, North Carolina. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence core moves inland on Friday.

A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Tonight, Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
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Secretary Wilbur Ross is in North Carolina today touring the NOAA facility and listening to projections of how long Hurricane Florence may disrupt rail, road and shipping transport.  Mr. Ross then calculates the economic impact.

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There will be a 2:00pm interim update soon.  As of the 11:00am update this morning Florence had dropped wind speed to 105mph (Cat2) but remained on the previously forecast track. Florence is located approximately 145 miles east-southeast of Wilmington and traveling forward at 10mph.
[Hurricane Center] Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a further decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday night.
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According to the 11:00pm advisory Hurricane Florence has weakened to a Category 2 storm with winds at 110mph.  Forward speed is still around 17mph and it is located approximately 280 miles east south-east of Wilmington North Carolina. [16 hrs away]

Time Lapse Forecast Map Available Here

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday. (read more)
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Just when you think we might have reached peak Trump Derangement Syndrome; along comes an even bigger nut to raise the bar on crazy:

Tweet Link – Article Link

Apparently President Trump is such a significant presence he now commands control over planetary meteorology.  Who knew?

As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes.  I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.  Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power.  This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild.  Don’t expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.
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The 5:00pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows the massive storm has lost a little internal power but the forecast path is now considerably worse.  The projections put Florence actually making near landfall and simultaneously shifting south buzz-sawing both the North Carolina and South Carolina coast with hurricane winds.
The projected path is incredible.  SEE HERE (hit play) a hurricane paralleling the coastline while retaining strength is one of the most damaging outcomes possible.  This also increases the storm surge potential with multiple tide cycles.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 72.5 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday.
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The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center is 2:00pm today.  President Trump delivers a strong message of caution and concern ahead of the storm’s arrival.

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On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. Florence is still forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast.
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