As the House impeachment of President Donald Trump becomes more of a forgone political conclusion it’s worth considering what terms and conditions Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will extract in order to preserve a Trump Presidency.
Most political pundits will not correctly outline the status of the possibilities, because most political pundits are willfully blind to the structure of the McConnell Senate.
First, McConnell doesn’t care about holding a majority position in the Senate.  Whether he is a majority leader or a minority leader doesn’t matter to McConnell. In fact McConnell’s political skill-set does better in the minority than the majority.
The preferred political position for Mitch McConnell is where he has between 45 and 49 republican Senators, and the Democrats hold the Majority with around 55.  Of course with Reid’s retirement, this would now be with Majority leader Chuck Schumer holding office.
Why does McConnell prefer the minority position?
The answer is where you have had to actually follow Mitch McConnell closely to see how he works.   When the Majority has around 52 to 55 seats, they need McConnell to give them 8 to 9 votes to overcome the three-fifths (60 vote) threshold for their legislative needs.  It is in the process of trade and payment for those 8 to 9 votes where McConnell makes more money, and holds more power, than as a sitting Majority Leader.
The 60 vote threshold, and McConnell’s incredible skillset in the minority, is where he shines.  Each of the needed votes to achieve sixty is worth buckets of indulgence to the minority leader.  This is why McConnell never changed the Senate rules for legislative passage.
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President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump participate in the 2019 National Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony on the Ellipse in Washington DC.

…“At Christmas we remember this eternal truth: every person is a beloved child of God. As one grateful nation, we praise the joy of family, the blessings of freedom and the miracle of Christmas. On behalf of Melania and our entire family, Merry Christmas and God Bless you all.”…

~ President Donald Trump

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Hunter Biden, Chris Heinz and Devon Archer created an international private equity firm. It was anchored by the Heinz family alternative investment fund, Rosemont Capital.
The Rosemont group described themselves as “a $2.4 billion private equity firm co-owned by Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz,” with Devon Archer as “Managing Partner.”
As Vice-President Joe Biden (Hunter’s dad) and Secretary of State John Kerry (Chris’s dad) negotiated sensitive and high-stakes deals with foreign governments, Rosemont secured a series of exclusive financial deals with those same foreign governments. Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz made millions.  Today John Kerry endorses Joe Biden:

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Bilat #4 was a private meeting between President Trump and Denmark Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and closed to public.  [Greenland purchase?…]
Prior to Bilat #5 President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’ hold a media availability prior to their meeting. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. We just met with the Prime Minister of Denmark. Had a great meeting and discussed a lot of things, including trade.
And now we’re meeting with a friend of mine — a good friend of mine, the Prime Minister of Italy. And we have many things to discuss, including trade and military and all sorts of different things that we’re working on together. And he’s done a terrific job, become very popular in Italy. A very popular man, as — I’m not surprised to say that.
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In the second bilateral NATO meeting of the day, U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hold a joint press availability.
Unfortunately for U.S-Canada relations, at the conclusion of their bilat Trudeau went to a NATO reception at No. 10 Downing Street and was caught on mic disparaging President Trump with French President Emmanuel Macron. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, thank you very much, everybody. A question was asked just a little while ago about supporting the people protesting in Iran and are going through a very tough period. And we do support them totally and have supported them from the beginning.
The question was asked: “Do we support them” — I thought — “financially?” And we haven’t supported them. I don’t know that we’ve ever been actually asked to support them, financially. And I — you know, if somebody asked, maybe we would. But we support them very, very seriously. The people that are protesting in Iran, they’re looking for their freedom, and we are fully in support of them.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on CNBC earlier today to discuss the status of U.S-China trade discussions, the latest issues with tariffs on French goods, and the bigger picture issues within the EU that we previously discussed.
Ross highlights the additional tariffs on China scheduled for December 15th are currently still planned to take effect unless something substantial changes in the position of China.  Additionally, and interestingly on the French and EU tariffs, Secretary Ross reminds the financial pundits of the $7.5 billion WTO authorized award against the EU that would be in addition to the $2.4 billion in tariffs now scheduled for French products.

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Pay attention to what Ross says in that interview; the administration is being remarkably open and consistent.  Given the adversarial position exhibited by French President Emmanuel Macron today; and against the backdrop of continual EU intransigence on trade reciprocity; I suspect once the USMCA is passed we are going to see a *severe* shift in tone within the U.S. trade position toward both China and the EU.
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The synergy, flow and timing of the U.S. trade and economic team is just a marvel; a brilliant assembly of perfectly in-tune economic and trade professionals.
As President Trump touched down in the U.K. to attend the two-day NATO summit, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announces the completion of a Section 301 review of France’s Digital Services Tax (DST).
After determining the value of the French tax on U.S. internet services at $2.4 billion; Lighthizer announces a 100%  countervailing duty on a carefully selected $2.4 billion in French imports.
Obviously the agenda for the bilateral NATO meeting between U.S. President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron just changed.  LOL, you have to love Team USA.
Oh, but wait, wait… it gets better….
We have to remember, THIS $2.4 billion U.S. tariff against France would be on top of the $7.5 billion (per year) countervailing duty recently won from the Airbus subsidy case in the WTO…. and by law France cannot retaliate.
Oh my, President Trump strolls into the NATO bilat with Macron while holding a $10 billion legally justified countervailing tariff position.  How’d ya like ‘dem grapes?
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Chopper pressers are the best pressers.  Earlier today President Trump paused to talk to the press pool prior to departing the White House for the NATO summit in the U.K. [Video and Rough Transcript Below]

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[Rough Pool Transcript] – President Trump … we’re fighting for the American people. It has not been a fair situation for us because we pay far too much as you know. Secretary Stoltenberg said we were responsible — I was responsible — for getting over $130 billion extra from other countries that we protect, that weren’t paying. They were delinquent. So we’ll be talking about that. We’ll be talking about a lot of things.
We are leading the world now on the economy, and we have been almost since I became president. But we are substantially ahead of anybody else. Nobody’s even close. You know that very well. And I look forward to having a number of very, very productive days for our country. We’ll be working hard. Do you have a question?
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade “negotiations” :::nudge-nudge, wink-wink::: and highlights the ‘phase-1’ fulcrum is China committing to the $50b Ag purchase without condition.  Secretary Ross also notes the December 15th date just happens to be “good timing” if the U.S. team is “forced” to put more tariffs on China.  LOL.
Additionally, Mr. Ross notes the challenge of a strong dollar as it relates to allied nations who are stimulating their own economy by sending us even cheaper stuff, ie. Brazil.

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Whenever we discover a financial analyst who understands the new dimension in U.S. economics (rare) it is worth revisiting them from time-to-time. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian was one of the first MSM pundits to: (a) accept the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street via de-globalization; and (b) begin to explain why that matters in the era of Trump.
El-Erian appeared this morning on Fox Business News to discuss President Trump’s re-imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally El-Erian discusses trade tensions, market outlooks, consumer strength, recession fears, and the drag the rest of the world is placing in the U.S. economy.

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The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.”  The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out.
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