Earlier today U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper held a press briefing. Video below. When the transcript is available it will be posted HERE.

(more…)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released Q4 (November) import/export data showing a considerable drop in the U.S. trade deficit. [Release Here]  Exports increased approximately .7 percent ($208.6 billion) while imports dropped one percent ($251.7 billion.  Lowering the overall trade deficit to $43.1 billion.

While the pundits are surprised at the strong result, it should not come as a surprise to many CTH readers.  During Q2 (June) and Q3 (July, Aug, Sept) the rate of GDP growth was impacted -in part- by inflated U.S. purchases as companies bought holiday merchandise earlier than normal.  This was an effort to avoid looming tariffs, and as a result companies increased their overall inventory.  We predicted Q4 purchases (Oct, Nov, Dec) would be lower specifically because of this backlog of retail inventory.
With the massively successful holiday season now over, those inventories have sold.  Specifically because the value of imports are deducted from the GDP calculations, there will likely be a much stronger Q4 GDP growth resulting from less import activity.
The Wall Street financial pundits are too focused on the multinational side of the ledger; and they simultaneously don’t review data from a Main Street perspective; therefore they don’t see -or pretend not to see- the common sense equation staring them in the face.
(more…)

Any headline that uses the phrase “France Warns” immediately requires a background review to understand the big picture driving French fears.
Just like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thinking he could outwit President Trump’s policies on NAFTA trade (he failed), Trudeau’s bestie, French President Emmanuel Macron, has stupidly exhibited similar shortsightedness.  In the case of both leaders their weasel moves have put their nations’ into a precarious economic position.
To consider the future for France, it would be wise to remember last year when President Trump arrived to attend the G-7 in Biarritz, France, President Macron was waiting at the Hotel du Palais to ambush Trump for an unscheduled luncheon (pictured below):

This was just one example in a series of scripted weasel-moves played by Macron in an attempt to pontificate his importance for the international audience.  Another example from the same event was Macron inviting the Iranian foreign Minister to the G7 for sideline meetings unrelated to the topics being discussed in Biarritz.
In an effort to create leverage against the U.S. position, President Macron never discussed his Iranian invitation -in advance- with the U.S. delegation.  It did not go over well.
The EU, and specifically France, have a dependence on foreign energy sources as a result of their ridiculous climate policies and narrow thinking.  In essence the EU wants to do business and receive oil from Iran; however, U.S. sanctions against Iran forbid those business deals.  Ergo Macron attempted to inject influence and position his interests.
As stated, the ambush approach did not go well, but POTUS played it cool.
(more…)

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared on Fox News, CBS, NBC and ABC to discuss the killing of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani and the current status with Iran.  Here’s the roundup:
CBS Margaret Brennan clutches her pearls and sits aghast at the audacity of the United States to kill a terrorist on foreign soil: “what right do you have” she condescendingly snarls, positioning herself as more experienced in the world than Secretary Pompeo.  With dramatic flair and purposeful constitution, Brennan rises to protect the Iranian regime.

.
ABC George Stephanopoulos is shocked, s.h.o.c.k.e.d, that U.S. policy would mean Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani could be killed.
(more…)

Fox News host Dan Bongino interviews Rudy Giuliani for his podcast.  The topics include increased crime in New York City; Iran, the ‘Spygate” surveillance scandal; the IG report on FISA abuses against the Trump campaign, and Joe Biden’s history of corruption.
The interview starts around 04:00 minutes into the video.

(more…)

This speech was originally delivered in late November 2012 after the presidential election.  Setting aside nuances in the Romney aspect watch this video again… in hindsight… and contrast specifically against current events.
Stay with it… watch it all the way through.  Pay attention to the specific subject matter outlined, the details as encapsulated, and contemplate what Bill Whittle says in this video against VERY CURRENT events: “a president who believes in his message“…

(more…)

On the day the administration briefs congressional leadership about the details of the strike that killed Iranian terrorist Qasem Soleimani, President Trump warns Iran about consequences for any retaliatory strike against Americans:

(more…)

A good day for a MAGAnomic pause and reminder…
In 2015 we discussed candidate Trump’s economic positions and how they would impact the economy.  CTH anticipated that MAGAnomics would be reversing three decades of federal reserve monetary policy. After about a year of analysis and discussion, in 2016 CTH presented a theory: “A new Dimension in Modern Economics“.

CTH shared a possibility of what could happen if Trump Economic Policy was shifted to favor Main St. over Wall St.  One aspect we presented was how Federal Reserve monetary policy would be oddly disconnected from its ability to influence inflation… Today:

SAN DIEGO (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting too-low inflation for years to come, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday, and may need a new policy framework to lift inflation back up to the Fed’s 2% goal.
“We don’t have a really good understanding of why it’s been so difficult to get inflation back up,” Daly said at the annual American Economics Association meeting in San Diego.

(more…)

Reports of new late-night U.S. airstrikes north of Baghdad are starting to be confirmed.  According to developing reports a convoy of two or three vehicles carrying Iran-back Shia Militia leaders was targeted near Taji in Northern Baghdad. [Convoy pic below]

The strike is reported to have killed Qais Khazali, one of the people the US named as responsible for storming of US Embassy in Baghdad.  Also Shibl al-Zaydi is now confirmed to have been killed. Shibl was the leader of Kata’ib al-Imam Ali or the Imam Ali Battalions.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Air strikes targeting Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces umbrella grouping of Iran-backed Shi’ite militias near camp Taji north of Baghdad have killed six people and critically wounded three, an Iraqi army source said late on Friday.
Two of the three vehicles making up a militia convoy were found burned, the source said, as well as six burned corpses. The strikes took place at 1:12 am local time, he said. (link)

It would appear the U.S. has ongoing excellent intelligence on the movements of key Iranian militia leadership operating in Iraq, and are now working through a list of those targets as they attempt to move around.
(more…)

This afternoon President Trump delivered a statement on Iran outlining the successful preemptive strike against Iranian terrorist leader Qasem Soleimani.

…“We took action last night to stop a war. We did not take action to start a war.”…

.
[Rough Transcript] Thank you very much, and good afternoon.
As president my highest and most solemn duty is the defense of our nation and its citizens. Last night, at my direction, the United States military successfully executed a flawless precision strike that killed the number one terrorist anywhere in the world, Qassem Soleimani.
Soleimani was plotting imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel, but we caught him in the act and terminated him.
(more…)