Great interview segment between Lou Dobbs and Michael Pillsbury discussing the status of the U.S-China trade conflict.  Pillsbury notes how the Chinese analysts likely fell into the trap of believing what most western financial media were saying about domestic opposition to President Trump’s policies.
https://youtu.be/pilqeV2aNeE?t=4m48s
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One of the aspects to President Trump that bears a continual reminder is the importance of actual economic victory over optical political victory.   President Trump is primarily focused on the former, and only concerned about the latter as it relates to his goal:

….to fundamentally restructure the way the American economy interacts with the global community. Economic security is national security.

That’s what President Trump cares about. President Trump’s outlook on economic security is only superseded by one measure: his willingness to use the U.S. military to protect U.S. persons from physical threats of harm.
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President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump participate in a celebration of military mothers at the White House earlier today [Video and Transcript].

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[Transcript] East Room – 4:30 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Great job. Thank you very much. And thank you for being here. And, Melania, you did a beautiful job in organizing this incredible celebration of America’s military mothers. That’s good. I had a great mother — Mary. I loved my mother. I miss my mother.
Military moms are the backbone of America. I know it is still two days away, but I wish everybody right now a very Happy Mother’s Day. Happy Mother’s Day, everybody. (Applause.) Happy Mother’s Day. Thank you.
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Giddy up… President Trump has fulfilled another campaign promise to confront China and hold firm.  As promised, three decades of Donald Trump’s intense commitment to stop the exfiltration of Amerian wealth is on display today.

When you plant your tree in another man’s orchard don’t be surprised when you end up paying for your own apples….

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin; U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. President Donald Trump are confronting Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Chairman Liu He… and now consequential things get economically very serious.
There are going to see multiple geopolitical background moves now as the confrontation shifts to the painful phase…. who can outlast the economic standoff.

WASHINGTON DC – Negotiations to end the US-China trade war came to a surprisingly early close in Washington on Friday with no signs of a deal – reportedly just hours before the Chinese delegation will return to Beijing.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters at noon that the talks had been constructive as he left the US trade representative’s office, where negotiators held their latest round of talks in an attempt to end a months-long trade dispute. (more)

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Today President Trump outlines an approach to head-off the anticipated retaliation from China over the increase in U.S. tariffs that began today. Whether this is structurally possible, or whether this is Trump’s attempt to diminish the leverage carried by Vice-Chairman Liu He, is an interesting question. However, the strategy is clear.
Overall U.S. inflation remains low relative to the economic gains from MAGAnomic policy. [Current CPI HERE].  GDP and wage growth are both exceeding inflation. As such, now is indeed the best time to confront China. President Trump notes this today in a tweet:

Inflation in the U.S. remains low overall at 1.8%…. now is the perfect time to hit Beijing with expanded tariffs.  However, President Trump knows China will retaliate through the multinationals on Wall Street.  President Trump knows China will specifically target the U.S. Agriculture sector. China will likely attempt to put pressure on Trump by refusing to buy U.S. farm product. The BIG AG multinationals will go bananas.
The BIG AG multinationals, those who control food/farm production, also control key Senators; they have been purchased through lobbyists. This is part of the Big Club approach/strategy.  Wall Street and the U.S. Senate will be aligned to support China; as a consequence President Trump needs to counteract their effort.
President Trump’s approach to counteract China’s strike against the U.S. agricultural community is visible in a series of tweets today.  I don’t necessarily agree with the proposal long-term, BUT I do understand the short-term objective…. optimum expediency.
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House Intelligence Committee ranking member Devin Nunes discusses James Comey’s recent comments and the ongoing efforts against Attorney General Bill Barr.

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The full James Comey town hall event is below:
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The Southern District of New York has released a criminal complaint to accompany the seizure of a North Korean freighter “Wise Honest” (Full pdf below). The freighter was seized by Indonesian authorities on/around April 2, 2018 [media story here]. However, the background story of Wise Honest is more interesting.

The indictment outlines how the freighter was used to transport coal from North Korea to China and Russia and back-haul heavy equipment from Chinese ports into the DPRK. However, the transport network changed with the timing of increased sanctions on the DPRK.  Simply, the ship was routed to avoid being caught for violating sanctions.
The indictment also outlines how Chinese entities in Hong Kong assisted with routing the vessel to avoid maritime surveillance. There’s an aspect here that overlays a prior set of CTH discussions surrounding U.S. Navy training for a potential U.S. maritime blockade.
You might remember November 2017 CTH discussions about U.S. vessels conducting training exercises in/around shipping lanes. In 2017 and 2018 there were some maritime collisions that seemed to align with the possibility of these training exercises. In June 2017 The USS Fitzgerald was one such example near the coast of Japan.
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This is the big one.  This is the inflection moment.  Tonight around 5:00pm Chinese Vice-Chairman Liu He will engage with team U.S.A. on the substantive issues around the future of the U.S-China trade relationship.   Trillions at stake.
At midnight tonight the tariffs on Round One of Chinese goods are scheduled to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent.  Round Two is yet determined.  The background for the disposition of TEAM USA was outlined HERE.

Mnuchin – Trump – Lighthizer and Ross

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin previously worked a 150-page outline agreement with China on seven chapters of trade issues covering: Theft of U.S. intellectual property; protection for trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation.  Last week China reversed course on all of the substantive agreements. 
Today Vice-Chairman Liu He is going to try to justify to President Trump why China can no longer accept the commitments they made over the past three months.
It cannot be overstated how everything in/around DC must first be filtered through the prism of this inflection point.  At the heart of U.S. politics, the majority of the Senate Chamber is aligned with the Chinese through purchased multinational lobbying interests. Again, there are trillions at stake.  Wall Street through K-Street has paid the Big Club to defend their multinational/financial interests from President Trump.
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President Trump flew into Tyndall Air Force Base to tour the ongoing hurricane recovery effort ahead of a panhandle rally.  After the visit and briefing President Trump will be heading to a MAGA rally at the Aaron Bessant Park Ampitheater in Panama City Beach, FL. President Trump is expected to speak at 8:00pm EDT.
UPDATE: Video Added

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USTR Robert Lighthizer has filed the official notification with the federal register for the increase in Section 301 tariffs from 10% to 25% effective Friday (full pdf below).  Additionally Reuters has exclusive details of the collapse in U.S-China trade talks.
As most CTH readers are aware, Lighthizer has focused heavily on the enforcement mechanisms within the trade talks. [Previous Bookmark] Apparently, when the 150 page draft agreement was presented to the Chinese politburo, Beijing balked at allowing the U.S. to hold controlling enforcement over the trade agreement terms.

The fallback presentation from Vice-Chairman Liu was: we cannot put the binding enforcement mechanisms in writing, you’ll have to ‘trust us’ to honor the agreement; at which time Lighthizer said no-way.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) – The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.
The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters.

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In the aftermath of GM’s announcement to close the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly facility, President Trump worked earnestly to get GM to sell the facility and save jobs for the region.  Today President Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra announce the likely sale to Workhorse Group pending UAW union approval.

Washington (AFP) – General Motors Wednesday announced plans to invest $700 million in Ohio and to sell a shuttered plant to a company that makes electric trucks, drawing cheers from President Donald Trump who has assailed the US automaker for cutting American jobs.

“GREAT NEWS FOR OHIO!” Trump tweeted, revealing the details ahead of the company’s official announcement.

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