~ Dance With The Dragon ~

Amid the furor from hundreds-of-thousands -perhaps millions- of protestors, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announces a ‘suspension‘ of the proposed extradition law that would have permitted extradition of Hong Kong residents to Chinese law enforcement.

Lam apologized on Sunday, for the way the Hong Kong government handled the proposal but she did not fully take the controversial law off the table.  The ripple effect of the proposal itself now calls into question the autonomy of Hong Kong, and many observers foresee it is now only a matter of time before China takes a tighter grip.
Currently Hong Kong is not subject to the same economic consequences within the U.S-China confrontation.  As long as Hong Kong is considered ‘autonomous’ they remain detached from U.S. tariffs and other measures targeted to China.  However, if China breeches the increasingly unclear barriers, judicial and legal systems intended to provide that autonomy – well, then the situation could change.  Hong Kong is tenuous at best.
(more…)

The latest set of statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows all of the professional pundit claims of higher prices on imported goods due to Trump tariffs are simply disconnected from reality.  In actuality the year-over-year prices of import products are actually dropping:

U.S. Import prices fell 0.3 percent in May, the first monthly decline since a 1.4-percent drop in December. Import prices advanced 1.8 percent from December to April before the downturn in May. The price index for overall imports decreased 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, matching the drop in January. These were the largest over-the-year declines since the index fell 2.2 percent in August 2016. (See table 1.)

The U.S steel and aluminum tariffs have been in effect globally since 2017. Tariffs on softwood lumber (Canada) & durable appliances (S. Korea), same duration.  Additionally the first set of tariffs on China is now well over a year old; and the second set of expanded tariffs on China began a month ago; again, no material impact to the delivered price.
Despite two years of claims by the professional media that tariffs would lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers, as you can see above the reality is quite different.
(more…)

President Trump has taken the leverage of economics to levels of geopolitical strategy never seen before.  Nowhere is the genius strategy more clear than in the way Trump has positioned the trade reset and confrontation with China.
In hindsight every move since early 2017 including:  (1) the warm welcome of Chairman Xi Jinping to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate; (2) the vociferous praise poured upon Xi; (3) the November 2017 tour of Asia; (4) the direct engagement with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un; the strategic relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; and a host of smaller nuanced moves have been quietly building toward a conclusion.
The upcoming G-20 summit is the last chance for Trump and Xi to reconcile considerable differences and President Trump has the strongest strategic position any Chinese official has ever faced.
After Beijing walked away from previous agreements between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He, Trump initiated a series of punishing economic consequences that had to have been well planned in advance.
The economy in China is reeling from the pressure applied; and stunningly it has only been a month since the consequence phase began.
In addition to tariff increases, the U.S. blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co., threatened other major Chinese tech companies and essentially cut-off China from the international supply chain it needs to sustain itself.  Beijing responded by drawing up a list of “unreliable entities” and making threats against any enterprise that would walk away from business engagement with China.  The totalitarian response has worsened the situation, and more companies have announced their intent to decouple from Beijing.
An important aspect, missed by most observers, is the ideology and outlook within any Chinese engagement. Quite simply, if it does not benefit China it is not done.  Therefore any negotiation with China is challenging because Beijing will cede no ground they view as already won.
(more…)

Apparently Justin from Canada is coming to the White House for a meeting with President Trump…

WHITE HOUSE – President Donald J. Trump will welcome Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada to the White House on June 20, 2019. The visit will reaffirm America’s deep partnership with Canada, and allow the two leaders to address opportunities and challenges related to expanding bilateral cooperation.
President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau will discuss the shared economic interests of their countries, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and opportunities to drive more growth and create jobs in both the United States and Canada. The two leaders will also discuss the upcoming G20 Summit, which will take place from June 28 to 29 in Osaka, Japan. (read more)

Last month, Manny Montenegrino had a good discussion with Ezra Levant about the current issues with the relationship between Justin from Canada and President Trump.  Against the backdrop of this upcoming visit, it’s worth revisiting:
(more…)

Earlier today President Donald Trump delivered remarks introducing a ‘Second Chance’ hiring and workforce development initiative. The ‘Second Chance’ program is the follow-up initiative to complement the ‘First Step Act’ which the President signed last year.
‘Second Chance’ is a way to give everyone an opportunity to reestablish themselves economically and support their family financially.  This was really an uplifting and enjoyable event at the White House. [Video and Transcript]

.
[Transcript] THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Please, please. Great occasion.
I want to welcome everyone to the White House. We’re here today to announce a vital new action that we’re taking to help former inmates find a job, live a crime-free life, and succeed beyond their wildest dreams. (Applause.)
(more…)

If you’ve got the time this is well worth watching.  Larry Kudlow is Chairman of the National Economic Council and delivers a strong voice amid the economic team of assembled by President Trump.
Kudlow provides value because he comes from the Wall Street economic punditry networking group that just doesn’t understand MAGAnomics, or ‘America First’ Main Street policy.   President Trump has taught Kudlow a great deal.  So Kudlow’s value is heightened by his ability to explain Trump’s Main Street policy to his old Wall St. tribe; who genuinely have no concept of Main Street policy (hence, they’re always puzzled).

(more…)

The New York Times has a report this evening surrounding U.S. Attorney John Durham questioning CIA officials about the origination of the Trump-Russia investigation.
However, a closer look at the substance underneath the NYT reporting and it doesn’t actually look like Durham is questioning the CIA about the investigation itself; rather it appears he is questioning the CIA about how they came to the conclusions within the January 7th, 2017, Intelligence Community Assessment, or ICA.

(New York Times) […] Mr. Barr wants to know more about the C.I.A. sources who helped inform its understanding of the details of the Russian interference campaign, an official has said. He also wants to better understand the intelligence that flowed from the C.I.A. to the F.B.I. in the summer of 2016.

(more…)

Against the intense leverage being applied by President Trump, last week Beijing doubled-down and threatened punishment against any company that would leave China and begin manufacturing elsewhere.
The totalitarian response was predictable and expected.  However, also predictable was the corporate response to the threats.
As we shared:  “China is counting on prior western investment being so significant that a corporation will be reluctant to withdraw. However, in this outlook Beijing seriously underestimates the free market because communist controlled China doesn’t understand the action of a inherently free market.
The first loss is the best loss. If walking away from an investment provides more financial security and stability than attempting to retain a grip on a tenuous position – corporations will walk away.” (more)
Now today – “Nintendo Moves Some Switch Production Out of China”:

TOKYO— Nintendo Co. is shifting some production of its Switch videogame console to Southeast Asia from China to limit the impact of possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made electronics, said people who work on Nintendo’s supply chain.
It is another example of manufacturers adapting to the tariff threat. Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group said Tuesday that it was ready to move assembly of Apple Inc.’s iPhones out of China if necessary, and Japan’s Sharp Corp. , which is controlled by Foxconn, said last week that it planned to move production of personal computers to Taiwan or Vietnam.

(more…)

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcome Polish President Andrzej Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda to the White House.  The relationship between the U.S. and Poland is one of the cornerstones of a newly invigorated united alliance in Europe.
President Trump visited Warsaw, Poland, (July, 2017) where he delivered a speech vowing to confront “new forms of aggression” targeting Western values. The President and First Lady received a very enthusiastic reception during their visit to Poland.
Ahead of a bilateral meeting between the two leaders they held a press availability in the oval office.  [Video and transcript]

.
•President Donald Trump says he is seriously considering a return visit to Poland this fall. •The United States will send 2,000 more service members to Poland as he announces a broadening security and economic alliance. •The Polish government will pay for the infrastructure to support additional troops. •Poland will purchase 32 U.S. made F-35 fighter jets. •The U.S. and Poland have agreed to $8 Billion sales of liquefied natural gas.
[Transcript] PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. We have the very great privilege of having the President of Poland with us and his very powerful and lovely wife. Thank you very much. It’s great to be with you again.
(more…)

Yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a press conference to answer questions about the U.S-Mexicos migration and border security agreement. After reviewing some info from today, I’m inserting a graphic into Pompeo’s transcribed responses to better understand the “45 days” aspect. [Video and Transcript]

.
[Transcript – (emphasis mine)] SECRETARY POMPEO: A couple things this afternoon. First, I’ll give some remarks later this week that are consistent with what we’ve been working on for my entire time here in the Indo-Pacific.
I’ll be speaking to a group of Indian business leaders in preparation for the trip that I’ll take in a couple weeks where I’ll be visiting India, an important part of President Trump’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. And I’m looking forward to the opportunity both to give the set of remarks about how it is our relationship is so closely tied economically, but also importantly the things that the United States and India can continue to do to build out what is an incredibly important relationship for both countries.
(more…)