Pontificating economic globalists are stuck between empirical good news and their preferred anti-Trump tariff narrative.  Economic media like the Wall Street Journal are filled with angst, as Trump’s manufacturing MAGAnomics continues to destroy their decades-long talking points and globalist preferences.

The analysis of June factory and manufacturing indicators from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) highlight an expanding reality: increased production, increased new orders, increased employment, and demand outpacing supplies and transportation capacity.  Yes, all of this means the Main Street U.S. economic engine is firing on all cylinders.  We can only imagine what the Q2 numbers will reflect when it’s all rolled up.

ISM DATA – “Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index at 60 percent or above for the 14th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low. The Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, reading at 60 percent of higher for the third consecutive month. Consumption, described as production and employment, continues to expand in spite of labor, skill and material shortages.

What does this mean in blue collar language?  Short term: OVERTIME pay folks…. maximum earnings possibilities as demand for factory and manufacturing has all employment working maximum production shifts. Long term: upward wage pressure, jobs, jobs, jobs.
For the Truck Drivers?  Work, work, work.  You got a rig, they need it hauled. Everywhere.
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Today U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue announced another campaign to protect and defend his Wall Street contributors against initiatives that benefit Main Street U.S.A. This is not the first time, and unfortunately it will likely not be the last time.
For a great historic reference consider THIS ARTICLE from 2014; when the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced their direct attack against the Tea Party backed candidates that threatened to remove the massive lobbying power of Tom Donohue’s corrupt officials. That 2014 reference point has two parts. I strongly urge anyone who would defend the U.S. CoC approach to read both.

The overwhelming majority of economic punditry and opinion come from salespeople on the purchased payroll, direct and indirect, of the chamber. It is one of the most, check that, it is the most corrupt and abusive enterprise in the history of our nation. They are pulling out a very familiar playbook.

(Reuters) – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday denounced President Donald Trump’s handling of a global trade dispute, issuing a report that argued the tariffs imposed by Washington and retaliation by its partners would boomerang badly on the American economy.

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President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte in the Oval Office at the White House.
During remarks President Trump notes a phone call with Mexico’s winning presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; and ongoing interviews/discussions with possible Supreme Court nominees.  [Four SCOTUS nominees were interviewed today and three or four more will come in the next few days.]
On the trade front President Trump notes the ongoing issues with the WTO (World Trading Organization), and a possible confrontation looming over structural changes needed to reset global trade disparities and establish open markets.

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Mexico’s president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador “AMLO” easily won yesterday’s election with 54% of the vote; the highest vote total in three decades.  In addition his MORENA party won an absolute majority in both the Mexican Senate (38% +/-) and the Chamber of Deputies (38% +/-).

The multinational financial community is in the process of evaluating how the nationalist win will impact all prior investing.  One of the key issues is NAFTA.  Multinational corporations have poured billions into Mexico as a structural method to utilize the trade deal to gain access to the U.S. market.
Despite his campaign position, AMLO is now affirming a positive intention to renegotiate NAFTA; however, he is speaking from both sides of the current issue.  Example:

[Today] Lopez Obrador said he supports reaching a deal on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Canada.
[…]  Lopez Obrador said he will propose that his own team of experts be included in the talks. The winning candidate said he will make that proposal in a meeting Tuesday with current President Enrique Pena Nieto.

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Within the German economy the auto-sector holds the largest political influence.  Because of this dynamic all German politicians kneel at the knee of the big industrial auto manufacturers.  It has been said that losing support from within the auto-sector is much worse on a German politician than losing support from party or parliament.
Because of this dynamic; and specifically because the German auto-sector is dependent on the United States as their biggest customer, President Trump holds leverage over German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  This makes Fraulein Merkel unhappy.

President Trump wants three EU issues resolved: 1) Germany to contribute the minimum 2% of GDP for their own NATO defense.  2) Germany/EU to support enhanced sanctions against Iran; and  3) President Trump wants all German/EU protectionist trade barriers and tariffs lowered or eliminated – and new trade deals negotiated.
To gain momentum on these initiatives, President Trump is using the economics of trade as leverage.  Trump has suggested a 20% tariff on all EU automobiles shipped into the U.S. [The same standard now likely proposed toward Canada]  The German auto-sector, and as a consequence the German economy, simply cannot survive without low cost access to the U.S. market, their biggest customer.
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With new spark plugs, Kuddles was thrilled to discuss the latest economic key performance indicators.  National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow talks about the health and growth of the U.S. economy with Maria Bartiromo.

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Today Canada released an updated list of retaliatory tariffs designed as countermeasures to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum tariffs [SEE HERE] which will begin Sunday, July 1st.
Additionally, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains, and Employment and Labour Minister Patty Hajdu, announced they would initiate an emergency program to use Canadian taxes compensate workers, expand unemployment benefits, and subsidize impacted industry.  Yes, in a transparent display of political ideology (throwing capitalism directly out the window), Canada doubles-down on centralized government subsidies to offset market impacts.   Brilliant ‘eh!

Chrystia Freeland made the announcement on the floor of a Hamilton steel factory Friday. In a rare backdrop, Ms. Freeland actually entered a factory with machines and things, to deliver the carefully choreographed political message (video below – watch the last minute to understand).
Team U.S.A. have applied tariffs to Canadian softwood lumber, Steel and Aluminum as Canada refuses to negotiate new terms for NAFTA where North American products are prioritized.  Canada demands the ability to continue importing Asian, mostly Chinese, products for their assembly-based market.
With the latest counter-move by Justin and Chrystia from Canada, it is increasingly likely President Trump will levy a 20% tariff on imported Canadian automobiles.  Last month (May) the Canadian economy dropped over 31,000 Full-Time jobs.
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Earlier today President Trump delivered remarks celebrating the six month anniversary of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.   Today is also the last business day of the second quarter.

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Long time CTH readers might note in 2015 when we first saw candidate Trump’s economic policy initiatives, we began outlining the sequential economic possibilities if President Trump won. So far, all is going according to plan – STUNNINGLY According To Plan.  Seriously, go back and look –FEBRUARY 2016– two-and-a-half years ago.
The possibilities were obvious.  As a result we predicted repeatedly that Q2 of 2018 would be the beginning of the largest period of U.S. GDP and wage growth in the past 30 years.  Q2 2018 ends tomorrow and the results of Q2 will be announced in the next few weeks.  Everything is happening in a logical sequence as a result of Trump’s MAGAnomic plans.
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On the six-month anniversary of the tax cut/tax reform legislation passage, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sits down with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the current status of all MAGAnomic initiatives.
Tomorrow is also the last day of the second quarter (April, May June), and today is the last business day of Fiscal Year 2018 third quarter (fiscal years start Oct. 1st).

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Segment two below. Ivanka Trump joins Secretary Mnuchin to discuss results.
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Following the groundbreaking ceremony, President Trump delivered remarks to a Wisconsin audience to commemorate the opening of the massive high-tech industrial complex.

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