Against the backdrop of massively consequential events, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had an important interview today with Maria Bartiromo.
The interview covers multiple topics to include: China dropping tariffs; the overall status of the U.S. economy; potential economic impacts from the Coronavirus; an important legislative infrastructure program, and much more…  However, there’s a statement within the interview that subtle but highly important.  [Listen Carefully at 04:46]

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Long-term CTH readers may remember a key point, since we initially outlined the consequences of President Trump’s policy objectives in 2016, that everyone should carefully consider the scale of President Trump’s opposition.
We encapsulated by saying: “there are trillions at stake“.
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Even before the Coronavirus surfaced in China there was lower manufacturing factory activity within the Chinese economy.  The necessary response within China to control the spread of the Coronavirus has been to shut down most commerce.  Factories, schools &  businesses throughout China are empty as various containment measures are underway.

The direct result of this response is a severe drop in economic activity.  Many analysts are speculating about how this cessation of production might impact supply chains that use Chinese component goods.  Obviously, with manufacturing facilities closed any downstream multinational company relying on those products may have supply issues as soon as existing inventories deplete.
There is a natural lag before the manufacturing void hits the consumer market; however, the financial markets are forward looking and they are already reflecting severe drops in stock prices, depending on the dependency/exposure of the company and/or sector.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese stock and commodity markets fell heavily on Monday as the death toll from a coronavirus epidemic in China rose to 361 and investors retreated into safe-haven assets in the first trading session after an extended Lunar New Year break.

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As we start to head deeper into the 2020 presidential election year, there is some very good news for President Trump about how Americans rate their satisfaction; and some very bad news for Democrats who are trying to impeach this success.
According to the latest data from Gallup: “Americans’ average satisfaction rating for the 27 issues Gallup has tracked consistently since 2001 is now 47%. This is up three points from a year ago and is the highest since the January 2005 poll.”
In the measures of satisfaction covering the first three years of President Trump in office there are some remarkable increases in key measures:

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As President Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union speech to congress, these results will likely provide some measurable data for him to highlight.  Satisfaction with the U.S. economy has jumped a whopping 22 percent since President Trump took office.
As noted above, the economy, national security, military and state of race relations all provide double-digit increases in American satisfaction during President Trump’s first three years in office.
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Earlier today President Trump traveled to Dana Incorporated, a manufacturing facility for axel housings and machined products in Warren, Michigan, to celebrate the signing of the USMCA trade agreement with American workers.  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, let’s get back to work. Come on. (Applause.) I love that song, but every once in a while, we have to get back to work. (Laughter.)

So I am very honored to be at Dana Incorporated, a tremendous company, a plant in Warren, Michigan. We’re very proud of Michigan. (Applause.) Dana has been around — I also like it because we happened to win here, so I was very happy with that. (Applause.) Very happy with that.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:

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The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
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Reuters is well known for promoting a globalist, open border, multicultural agenda.  So it doesn’t come as a surprise to see Reuters targeting Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) for blocking central-American migrants; and rebuking AMLO for working with President Donald Trump to stop mass illegal migration.
It is too early to tell whether Mexico is genuine in their commitment to stop the highly organized and funded traveling caravans, which often contain thousands of marching border-crossers; however, the economic leverage, tariffs President Trump threatened for non compliance during 2019, was not simply an idle threat.  It appears AMLO has realized that President Trump doesn’t bluff.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador faces growing criticism he is doing U.S. President Donald Trump’s bidding after erecting a “wall” of security forces who clashed with Central American migrants near the Guatemala border this week.
Mexico, under the threat of punitive U.S. tariffs, has bowed to Trump’s demands to contain mass movements of migrants traveling through the country toward the U.S. border.

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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, says the USMCA positions the U.S. to begin focusing on a new trade agreement with Europe and others. Secretary Ross notes the administration initiates the EU from a position that talks will be successful. It is only if talks are not successful that Europe has to worry about tariffs. Too funny:

…”Frankly, I’ve seen a little bit of a sense of panic among some of the Europeans, because they know that with us solidifying both the USMCA and China ‘phase-one’ we’re in much stronger negotiating position than we’ve ever been”…

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Ivanka Trump and IBM CEO Ginni Rometty discuss new U.S. jobs, the U.S. workforce, tech-training, innovation, paid family leave, IBM’s growth in cloud computing and global economic outlooks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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During a pause between meetings President Trump sat down for an interview with CNBC in Davos, Switzerland.  Joe Keren notes the talk of Davos is the strength of the U.S. economy and how the results of the America-First national economic policies of President Trump are stronger than all Davos attendees anticipated.
This wide-ranging interview may even be better than the Fox Business interview as it presents more depth of insight into the next steps for President Trump’s global trade reset.  Obviously Europe is not looking forward to negotiating new reciprocal trade agreements with the Trump administration.  WATCH:

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At the conclusion of two days of meetings and discussions, President Trump holds a press conference prior to departing the World Economic Forum.  Surprisingly President Trump invited Roberto Azevedo, Director General of the World Trade Organization, to give remarks.  [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Please come on up, Roberto and Larry. Robert, Steve, come on up.
Good afternoon. We’ve had a tremendous two days here. We’ll be heading back right after this conference, and I’ve just concluded some additional meetings. We’ve had a lot of them. I think Davos has treated us really beautifully. It’s been a tremendous success. Everyone is talking about America’s unprecedented economic success. It’s really the talk of the town, so to speak.
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