U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is testifying tomorrow at 10:00am to the House Ways and Means committee; later in the afternoon Ambassador Lighthizer will testify before the Senate Finance Committee.

The New York Times has received an advance copy of USTR Lighthizer’s opening statement, and the liberal publication is apoplectic the Trump administration plans to outline an even more aggressive stance toward the World Trade Organization (WTO).

According to the pearl-clutching Wall St. class, Lighthizer is going to inform congress of Trump/USTR plans to demand tariff reciprocity; and Lighthizer will indeed raise tariffs against any nation that continues to attempt one-sided benefit. [EU will go bananas]

One method to approach tariff inequality would be for the U.S. to lower the import value threshold for non-tariff exemptions. Currently the U.S. does not apply import duties to any product valued under $800. This is a great benefit to China, southeast Asia, and U.S. on-line retailers such as ebay and Amazon; however, the zero tariff threshold hurts U.S. manufacturers because China and other nations do not reciprocate.

It is anticipated that USTR Lighthizer will inform congress the U.S. will lower that import threshold to match the same value level applied by other nations. Obviously the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Wall Street multinationals will not like this approach.

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On Thursday afternoon President Trump delivered remarks after a tour of the Ford Motor Company Rawsonville Components Plant in Michigan. [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Well, thank you very much. I like that dais very much, actually. That’s very special. Nice wood. Beautiful like the dashboards on your cars, Bill. Right?

MR. FORD: Absolutely.

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. And I just heard you’re going to be having two more — two thousand more jobs right down the road for the Bronco, which is a big winner. That’s great. Fantastic job. Thank you very much, Bill.

MR. FORD: Thank you, sir.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) building an advanced chip factory in Arizona.

Additionally, Wilburine also highlights new moves by the commerce dept. amending its longstanding foreign-produced direct product rule and the Entity List to narrowly and strategically target Huawei’s acquisition of semiconductors that are the direct product of certain U.S. software and technology.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk is drawing a line in the sand in his fight against authoritarian rules in California.  After several days of intense debate and argument with the arbitrary rules of the local Almeda County authorities, Musk says he’s reopening his auto plant:

FREMONT, Calif. — Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Twitter Monday that the company has restarted its California factory in violation of local government orders.

In the afternoon tweet, Musk wrote that he would be on the assembly line and asked that he be arrested if authorities take anyone into custody. State law allows a fine of up to $1,000 a day or up to 90 days in jail for operating in violation of health orders. (link)

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.K. Secretary of State for International Trade Elizabeth Truss announced today [joint statement] the beginning of a series of fast-tracked trade negotiations toward a new free trade agreement. [USTR Release]

In the foreground is a trade agreement between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. However, in the more strategic background context these negotiations create leverage for the U.K. in their post-Brexit negotiations with the European Union. First from today:

LIGHTHIZER – […] The US negotiating team will be led by Dan Mullaney, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East; and the UK negotiating team will be led by Oliver Griffiths, Director for US Negotiations at the Department for International Trade. Over 200 staff from U.S. and UK government agencies and departments are expected to take part in the negotiations.

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A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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Canada completes the North American cycle with their ratification of the USMCA to replace NAFTA. Mexico and the U.S. ratified the new trade agreement last year and January respectively.  The Canadian parliament did so yesterday.

CANADA – Canada on Friday formally approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), taking the last legislative step to implementation of the deal to replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The trade deal, ratified by the Mexican legislature last June and by Congress in January, was formally ratified by the Canadian Senate Friday, and shortly thereafter received royal assent, the Canadian governor general’s approval.

The deal was passed through the legislature before Parliament shut down for five weeks in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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Most people are aware the Wuhan coronavirus has become an economic contagion within China. However, the scale of the contraction is only now being quantified and the data doesn’t match the visible reality.
When evaluating the data showing drops in exports from China is worthwhile to consider the lack of visible supply-chain disruption formerly predicted by global economic “analysts”.  According to Reuters; to the extent data can be gathered from within a closed communist system; total exports from China dropped 17.2% in January and February.

The lack of factory production has cut the estimated growth rate within China by half.  However, is that a cause?  – or – Is that a cover?  For decades corporations have moved to a supply chain process known as Just-In-Time (JIT) inventory.
If Chinese component manufactured goods were part of a critical corporate supply chain, and with more than 30-days of source disruption quantified, there would be impacts by now. Where are the crippled customers?  There are no measurable, demonstrable, citations for missing component parts making downstream finished goods impossible.  There are lots of anticipatory declarations, but no shortage has materialized.
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In August of last year federal authorities raided the homes of United Auto Workers (UAW) President Gary Jones who was under investigation in a nationwide corruption sweep.  Today an indictment was unsealed charging Jones with embezzling more than $1 million in union funds.  His former deputy was arrested in September.

DETROIT (Reuters) – Former United Auto Workers (UAW) President Gary Jones was charged on Thursday with embezzling more than $1 million of union funds amid a U.S. corruption probe that has raised the specter of a federal government takeover of the union.
Jones, 62, of Canton, Michigan, was charged in an information, a court document typically used when the government has reached a plea deal with a defendant. J. Bruce Maffeo, a lawyer for Jones, declined to comment. The documents were filed previously and unsealed on Thursday.

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During a mid-afternoon session at the U.S. embassy’s Roosevelt House in New Delhi, India, President Trump met with U.S. and India business leaders. The president cancelled his prepared remarks to the business investors, instead he took questions from roundtable participants.