For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years… Then came the era of Trump.

MAGAnomic policy is based around a very simple free-market process.  Increase domestic economic investment; expand new business and expansion in existing business; that expands the need for employment; drive those jobs, jobs, jobs and watch wages rise naturally as employers compete over an increasingly valuable labor pool.

Business Insider – The pharmacy-chain owner Walgreens Boots Alliance announced Thursday that it will make investments of about $150 million to boost mainly its in-store wages in fiscal 2019 in wake of President Donald Trump’s tax reforms.
[…] US retailers are scrambling to keep workers as they look for opportunities with higher pay and attractive benefits. The US unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of 3.7% in September. According to the Bureau of Labour statistics, there were 757,000 retail-job openings across the United States in July, which is about 100,000 more than a year ago.

(more…)

There has been a great deal of background activity in the past 72 hours surrounding the U.S. and Canada trade negotiations.  However, some of that activity has become more brutally obvious; a deal is not likely to happen.
Against growing visibility the Canadian team of Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland were intent on using opposition to Trump for maximum domestic gain, President Trump declined a bilateral meeting with Justin from Canada at the U.N. General Assembly; and today U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told a group an agreement was unlikely.
Additionally, in a video taken today during the U.N. luncheon it is clear President Trump has no time for the political schemes of Justin Trudeau. The moment happens at 02:45 of the video below:

.
It is difficult to see from the video above, however in the camera angles below it is much more transparent.
(more…)

Bloomberg reported earlier today that President Trump was likely to pull the trigger on round #2 of tariffs against $200 billion in Chinese imported goods. Duh. Surprise fail. President Trump has not bluffed on a single tariff initiative since he started executing new U.S. trade policies to reset all trade relationships.
According to Jennifer Jacobs reporting (one of the few reliable) Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Lighthizer met Thursday to review the current status of ongoing trade deals. This is a good nugget, because it’s likely that same meeting contained the forward instructions toward Lighthizer for the Canada discussions.
According to the report, President Trump, Ross and Lighthizer are adjusting the specifics of the $200 billion Chinese products targeted based on the two-weeks of domestic feedback they received. I would actually anticipate a combination of increased tariffs on the Round #1 sector (25% on $50 billion), and the application of new sectors within the $200 billion Round #2 target.

• Reuters Article Here
• Bloomberg Article Here
• USTR Prior Notification Here

(more…)

Remember the ju-ju bones?… Well….  The U.S. Main Street economic engine is almost firing on all cylinders as brick-and-mortar retailers drop their historic complaints of e-commerce impacting their sales and foot-traffic, and instead begin seeing the real life consequences from a resurgent American middle-class.

Target CEO Brian Cornell: “There’s no doubt that, like others, we’re currently benefiting from a very strong consumer environment — perhaps the strongest I’ve seen in my career.”  “We’re seeing a great consumer response … unprecedented traffic. As we go back and look, we’ve never seen traffic growth like this.” (link)

The growth in retail foot-traffic is a critical KPI for the economy.  Despite economic and business school theory (pushed over the past 20 years), everything of consequence is dependent on a thriving American middle-class; blue and white collar.
(more…)

When discussing or reviewing trade deals, particularly NAFTA, it is important to remember two baselines: (1) The trade reset is President Trump’s personal legacy initiative; it’s personal – ignore media banter – it’s personal; like, the most important thing he ever thinks about. Always. 24/7. (2) President Trump has no multinational corporations or financial interests with leverage/influence over his decision-making.

There are trillions at stake.

We begin:

“We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week,” Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters.

Here’s where it becomes important to note that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has twice asked Jesus Seade to remain AFTER hours when all other trade officials have concluded discussions. Closed-door conversations between Lighthizer and Seade; and no-one else. [Refer back to the two Trump baselines again]
Next, before reviewing the comments and presentations of the media regarding the U.S. Mexico NAFTA status; again reference the team approach, and the division of responsibility. Today, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is meeting with the twitchy Chinese delegation – again, their arrival is not a matter of scheduling happenstance; it is directly related to the ongoing 301 hearings that began two-days-ago, Monday.
(more…)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox News to discuss the incredible strength of the economy and how the media is refusing to cover the story.
Chairman Kudlow goes through a series of economic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to stress how this specific set of MAGAnomic Main Street policies is delivering real, tangible, financial benefits to the middle-class and average Americans.

(more…)

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) is an assembly and survey of small business owners throughout the U.S.  In the latest survey (full pdf here) overall optimism is the second highest ever recorded at 107.9 (the highest reading was 108 in 1983).

The full press release is available here.  The full pdf of the survey is available here. The executive summary outlines the overall content and highlights the sentiment amid Main Street U.S.A.:

[…] Although some panned any celebration of the 4.1 percent second quarter GDP growth, small business owners beg to disagree. At least in the small business sector of the economy, Main Street’s performance over the last 21 months is unprecedented based on reports for the past 45 years by hundreds of thousands of NFIB’s member firms. Owners have never been so optimistic for so long. This has translated to improved employment and investment spending that buoys GDP growth, even at the end of what will be the longest expansion in modern history.
Consumer sentiment is at record high levels. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of our economy, posted 4 percent growth in Q2. Historically revised data show that consumers have been saving much more than thought, and income gains in recent months have been solid, providing support for spending in the second half. The record levels of firms reporting higher compensation is a clear indication that wages will be rising further in the second half.

(more…)

Methinks Maria Bartiromo is the only media person who has caught on to “the secret“.
Within her wording and presentation today, inside this interview Fox News Maria Bartiromo hints toward her understanding of the Trump trade strategy as it pertains to Mexico, Canada and ::cough:: NAFTA ::cough::

 Nudge/Nudge – Elbow/Elbow – Wink/Wink – Say no more/Say no more!

.
After the end of Round #6 (January 2018), it was obvious to POTUS Trump a NAFTA renegotiated deal was impossible.  In March, 2018, Team Trump stealthily began moving in a different direction.  In June,2018, Canada accidentally made the admission there were no ongoing talks between the U.S. and Canada.  The reasoning is simple yet stunning.
(more…)

Thankfully we don’t have to worry about those pesky diabetic septuagenarians running amok with bags of illegal Arkansas ginseng any longer.  Today a federal conviction hopes to stomp out the underground treatment of Alzheimers, heart disease, fatigue, erectile dysfunction, hepatitis C, high blood pressure and menopausal symptoms….

MISSOURI – […] The Springfield News-Leader reports 77-year-old Kermit Schofield and his wife, 73-year-old Sandy Schofield were sentenced Tuesday.
The couple farms and sells herbs in Theodosia, a town of about 250 people near the Missouri-Arkansas border.
Federal prosecutors say that between June 2013 and August 2015 the Schofields illegally bought more than 100 pounds of ginseng in Arkansas. Prosecutors say the couple bought the ginseng outside the permitted time frame for purchasing ginseng in Missouri, and they knew it was illegal transport ginseng out of Arkansas without a state certification. (more)

(more…)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July 2018 employment report today (full pdf with tables below) highlighting continued growth in jobs.  Overall private employment gained 170,000 jobs, while government employment decreased 13,000 jobs for a net gain of 156,000 new jobs.   The BLS unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%.
[*Note this footnote:  “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up to +268,000, and the change for June was revised up to +248,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 59,000 more than previously reported.”]  Huh, funny that…. some revision eh?
July’s labor participation is holding steady at 62.9%, with 155,965,000 employed within the U.S. workforce. (Table A-1)
Blue and White-collar Main Street jobs continue to lead the MAGAnomic resurgence. (table B-1) Construction jobs increased 19,000 jobs; manufacturing gained 37,000 jobs; and trade/transportation and utilities gaining 15,000.
With extra cash in their pockets, the U.S. worker/consumer continued to spend and retail employment added 7,100 new workers in July.   (Table B1) Interestingly, and reinforcing a long-ago CTH prediction, the consumer spending growth (leading to increases in employment) is specifically in the consumable goods sector (food, clothing, etc.).   This is connected to the increase in work-time (table B2); an oft overlooked aspect to the economy.
Truck transportation gained 4,400 jobs in July (everyone needs truckers), which is in line with the high wage growth (3.4%) within this sub-set of the transportation industry.

(more…)