Bank of Canada Lowers GDP Forecast Amid Continued Upward GDP for U.S….

A tale of two contrasting sets of economic priorities. The U.S. economy continues to outpace all economic forecasts.  Recently U.S. retail sales, wage growth and housing starts have exceeded all expectations.  Tomorrows announced U.S. GDP growth is positioned to exceed all previous doomsayer predictions from the professional financial back-bench.
However, the economic results in Canada are going in the opposite direction.  The Bank of Canada cut their GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.2% today.  A forecast drop of half a percent is a massive drop considering the prior rate of growth was meager at best.

Two full years into the advancement of America-First priorities, the international community is now admitting they can only find growth and value in U.S. investments.

(Via Reuters) […] The [Canadian] central bank now expects economic growth in the first half of 2019 to be lower than anticipated in January, when it released its last monetary policy report, due to a slowdown in Canada’s oil sector, the negative impact of global trade policies and a weaker-than-expected housing sector.

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U.S. Wins Softwood Lumber Tariff Dispute -vs- Canada at WTO…

There’s a term called “zeroing” at the heart of this World Trade Organization decision that supports President Trump, Secretary Ross and USTR Lighthizer.
When an industry product like Canadian softwood lumber is shipped into the U.S. for sale at a lower price than exists in Canada, the U.S. Commerce department calls thatdumping“.  If the Canadian product is the same or higher in the U.S. as it is in Canada there is no dumping.  No dumping is a “zero” or normal price differential; hence “zeroing”.

The Canadian government is subsidizing their lumber industry by allowing tree removal from federal land at discounted rates so long as the lumber is exported.  This made softwood lumber cheaper in the U.S. than in Canada and set up the dumping issue.
[NOTE: This is the same issue with Steel and Aluminum from China]
U.S. lumber mills were going out of business because Canada was dumping subsidized product into the U.S. market at a discounted rate.  As a consequence, in 2017 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross instituted a 20% tariff on Canadian lumber to protect the U.S. lumber industry.  The tariff is a countervailing duty to offset the Canadian subsidy. ie. “zeroing”.
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Sunday Talks: Larry Kudlow -vs- Margaret Brennan…

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Face The Nation to discuss issues with the U.S-Mexico border and possible economic ramifications if the security issues are not addressed. Additionally, Kudlow discusses the USMCA trade deal and the status of current negotiations with China.


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President Trump Visits Newly Constructed Border Security Barriers…

Earlier today President Donald Trump visited a newly constructed replacement barrier at the U.S-Mexico border.  After meeting with border patrol officials the president stopped to answer questions from the media.


[Transcript] 2:02 P.M. PDT – THE PRESIDENT: So, behind us is the wall. That’s the new wall. We’ve done a lot of it, and we’re doing a lot more. You see it over here. This is, unfortunately, a protection that I guess you need, because you don’t know who’s on the other side of the border. I hope it works. This is just a concrete protector.
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March Jobs Report – 196,000 Jobs Gained, Unemployment Rate Remains 3.8%, Wage Growth 3.2%….

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March employment report earlier today showing strong job growth of 196,000 with the unemployment rate remaining 3.8%.  Also, in March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $27.70, following a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.

The employment result was stronger than most analysts predicted; and comes amid stronger home sales and higher manufacturing numbers.  The economy is strong, balanced and shows no signs of weakness.  January and February were also revised upward by 14k.
The strong March (+196k) makes the weak February report (+33k) look like an outlier.  Using January (+312k), the three-month average is now 180,000 jobs gained.

(Via CNBC) […] Economists had been expecting 175,000 jobs for March. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% as expected.

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President Trump Delivers Remarks on China Trade and U.S-Mexico Border Issues (Video and Transcript)…

President Trump delivered remarks today during a White House Opportunity and Revitalization economic group meeting. [Video and Transcript Below] What is the axiom that needs to be continually referenced when contemplating the forces aligned against President Donald Trump?  “There are trillions at stake“.
President Trump is single-handily navigating U.S. interests amid a landscape where the entire BIG CLUB is aligned against him.  All but a handful of DC politicians are owned by Wall Street’s BIG CLUB (Donohue and McConnell); multinationals & allied media. Meanwhile, to enhance their self-interests/plans, the ‘Occupy’ left-wing Democrats have abandoned all prior positions and joined a tactical alliance with Wall Street in the hopes of removing President Trump.  These are the forces against all ‘America First‘ policies.


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[Transcript] -White House – […] PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’re losing, a few years ago, two hundred, routinely, to China. We can’t do that. We’re going to turn it around. It’s got to be a great deal. If it’s not a great deal, we’re not doing it.
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MAGAnomic Report: Weekly Jobless Claims Reach Lowest Point in 50 years…

This is a rather remarkable statistic [Technical Data Here] Weekly unemployment claims dropped to 202,000 for the week ending March 30th.  That’s the lowest level of jobless claims since December 1959.  More people are working today than ever in U.S. history. [The DOL jobless claims statistic is not connected to the unemployment rate; the BLS unemployment report for March will be announced tomorrow morning.]

(Via CNBC) The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite slowing economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 30, the lowest level since early December 1969, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

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Reminder: China's Structural Economic Weakness – Why they Need "One-Belt, One-Road"…

[Originally posted in 2017] To understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy it becomes necessary to understand how structurally weak the Chinese economy was when created.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy -manufacturing- they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and lightly discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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