Giddy up… President Trump has fulfilled another campaign promise to confront China and hold firm.  As promised, three decades of Donald Trump’s intense commitment to stop the exfiltration of Amerian wealth is on display today.

When you plant your tree in another man’s orchard don’t be surprised when you end up paying for your own apples….

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer; U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin; U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. President Donald Trump are confronting Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice-Chairman Liu He… and now consequential things get economically very serious.
There are going to see multiple geopolitical background moves now as the confrontation shifts to the painful phase…. who can outlast the economic standoff.

WASHINGTON DC – Negotiations to end the US-China trade war came to a surprisingly early close in Washington on Friday with no signs of a deal – reportedly just hours before the Chinese delegation will return to Beijing.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters at noon that the talks had been constructive as he left the US trade representative’s office, where negotiators held their latest round of talks in an attempt to end a months-long trade dispute. (more)

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Today President Trump outlines an approach to head-off the anticipated retaliation from China over the increase in U.S. tariffs that began today. Whether this is structurally possible, or whether this is Trump’s attempt to diminish the leverage carried by Vice-Chairman Liu He, is an interesting question. However, the strategy is clear.
Overall U.S. inflation remains low relative to the economic gains from MAGAnomic policy. [Current CPI HERE].  GDP and wage growth are both exceeding inflation. As such, now is indeed the best time to confront China. President Trump notes this today in a tweet:

Inflation in the U.S. remains low overall at 1.8%…. now is the perfect time to hit Beijing with expanded tariffs.  However, President Trump knows China will retaliate through the multinationals on Wall Street.  President Trump knows China will specifically target the U.S. Agriculture sector. China will likely attempt to put pressure on Trump by refusing to buy U.S. farm product. The BIG AG multinationals will go bananas.
The BIG AG multinationals, those who control food/farm production, also control key Senators; they have been purchased through lobbyists. This is part of the Big Club approach/strategy.  Wall Street and the U.S. Senate will be aligned to support China; as a consequence President Trump needs to counteract their effort.
President Trump’s approach to counteract China’s strike against the U.S. agricultural community is visible in a series of tweets today.  I don’t necessarily agree with the proposal long-term, BUT I do understand the short-term objective…. optimum expediency.
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This is the big one.  This is the inflection moment.  Tonight around 5:00pm Chinese Vice-Chairman Liu He will engage with team U.S.A. on the substantive issues around the future of the U.S-China trade relationship.   Trillions at stake.
At midnight tonight the tariffs on Round One of Chinese goods are scheduled to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent.  Round Two is yet determined.  The background for the disposition of TEAM USA was outlined HERE.

Mnuchin – Trump – Lighthizer and Ross

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin previously worked a 150-page outline agreement with China on seven chapters of trade issues covering: Theft of U.S. intellectual property; protection for trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation.  Last week China reversed course on all of the substantive agreements. 
Today Vice-Chairman Liu He is going to try to justify to President Trump why China can no longer accept the commitments they made over the past three months.
It cannot be overstated how everything in/around DC must first be filtered through the prism of this inflection point.  At the heart of U.S. politics, the majority of the Senate Chamber is aligned with the Chinese through purchased multinational lobbying interests. Again, there are trillions at stake.  Wall Street through K-Street has paid the Big Club to defend their multinational/financial interests from President Trump.
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USTR Robert Lighthizer has filed the official notification with the federal register for the increase in Section 301 tariffs from 10% to 25% effective Friday (full pdf below).  Additionally Reuters has exclusive details of the collapse in U.S-China trade talks.
As most CTH readers are aware, Lighthizer has focused heavily on the enforcement mechanisms within the trade talks. [Previous Bookmark] Apparently, when the 150 page draft agreement was presented to the Chinese politburo, Beijing balked at allowing the U.S. to hold controlling enforcement over the trade agreement terms.

The fallback presentation from Vice-Chairman Liu was: we cannot put the binding enforcement mechanisms in writing, you’ll have to ‘trust us’ to honor the agreement; at which time Lighthizer said no-way.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) – The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.
The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters.

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In the aftermath of GM’s announcement to close the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly facility, President Trump worked earnestly to get GM to sell the facility and save jobs for the region.  Today President Trump and GM CEO Mary Barra announce the likely sale to Workhorse Group pending UAW union approval.

Washington (AFP) – General Motors Wednesday announced plans to invest $700 million in Ohio and to sell a shuttered plant to a company that makes electric trucks, drawing cheers from President Donald Trump who has assailed the US automaker for cutting American jobs.

“GREAT NEWS FOR OHIO!” Trump tweeted, revealing the details ahead of the company’s official announcement.

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We have discussed the Chinese outlook toward trade and negotiations at great length.  One of the overriding issues has always been the zero-sum disposition of China as it relates to any engagement. To wit: if it does not benefit China, it simply is not done.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome.  If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war.  In politics or economics the same perspective is true.  It is a zero-sum outlook. (link)

Against the collapse of trade negotiations, the ideology of Chairman Xi Jinping is showcased today in the first official responses from the Chinese government toward the U.S. initiating tariffs due to Beijing’s duplicitous reversal on prior commitments.

(SCMP) Beijing will not make concessions in trade talks in response to Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, Chinese state media said in a commentary published a day after the US president announced increases in duties on Chinese goods.
“Things we think are advantageous for us, we will do it even without anyone asking,” People’s Daily reported on its WeChat account on Tuesday.
“Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”

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CTH shared last week the visibility of a cross-party political and economic horse-trade {Go Deep}.  It would appear some evidence toward that likelihood is gathering:

(Schumer link)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer want their infrastructure proposal.  President Trump wants a fundamentally realigned geopolitical trade reset.  No doubt Pelosi/Schumer will attempt to get their political win and simultaneously eliminate any Trump win.  However, until the weeds are reached they are each playing their role.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the most excellent April jobs report and the continued forecast for U.S. economic growth.
Director Kudlow points out the greatest current economic benefits are being felt in the blue-collar Main Street sector; and rebuts former Vice President Joe Biden’s comments on the administration policy.

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Well, it looks like the outcome of a horsetrading deal is starting to assemble.  President Trump meeting with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer et al, to discuss a $2 trillion infrastructure deal.   Despite their schemes and plots this is worth watching:

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Democrats don’t want the baggage of a tax increase heading into 2020… so Schumer punts the financing of the $2 trillion to President Trump; forcing the White House to deal with the dirty part (likelihood a gas tax increase), while Schumer/Pelosi keep clean hands on the high-brow aspect of beautiful infrastructure. That part is politically predictable.
That said, CTH can see the outline a deal where Democrats exchange votes for President Trump’s trade deals (specifically USMCA); to offset the Wall Street Republicans that will vote against the trade agreements; in return for provisions of an infrastructure deal that will benefit Pelosi/Schumer.
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Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, discusses the booming U.S. economy, the future outlook and why he supports the USMCA deal.

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