Canada Begins First Steps Toward USMCA Ratification….

Chrystia Freeland has presented the initial procedural process for  the Canadian Parliament to take up a bill to pass the USMCA.  However, the Canadian window is short, if they don’t ratify the trade pact by the end of June, the Canadian parliament will go into legislative recess until after the general elections October 21st, 2019.

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada took a first step toward ratifying the new North American trade agreement on Monday just three days ahead of U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s trip to Ottawa to discuss the passage of the treaty.
Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland presented what is known as a “ways and means motion” to the House of Commons, which opens the way for the formal presentation of a bill.

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President Trump Delivers Remarks on Supporting Farmers and Ranchers – 3:15pm EDT Livestream…

President Trump is holding a White House event to support Farmers and Ranchers and announce a transitionary aid package to help during the restructuring of the global supply chain and a reset in U.S-China engagement. Anticipated start time 3:15pm EDT.
Quite a remarkable presser.
UPDATE: Video Added


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All Pretense Dropped – Chairman Xi Calls for Chinese to Support New "Long March" for Trade War…

In a clear signal toward the trade conflict with the United States, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping is preparing his nation for a protracted trade conflict. Chinese state-run media have been deploying propaganda to shift public opinion toward the U.S. as a direct threat, and the latest developments by Xi showcase that agenda.

(South China Post) Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for the nation to embark on a new Long March and “start all over again”, in the most dramatic sign to date that Beijing has given up hope of reaching a trade deal with the United States in the near term.
Xi is in Jiangxi province for his first domestic tour since the escalation of the trade war two weeks ago. Jiangxi is where China’s defeated Red Army started its fabled Long March in 1934, and Xi’s choice of destination is being viewed as an effort to invoke a spirit of endurance and to rally public spirit amid rising tensions with Washington.

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Steve Scalise Discusses China, USMCA, Trade and Possible Bid for Louisiana Governor…

Louisiana congressional representative and house minority whip Steve Scalise discusses current trade and economic initiatives from President Trump’s agenda.  Representative Scalise outlines the importance of the challenge to China and the benefits within the USMCA agreement.
Beyond the economics, Scalise notes the recent report about running for Louisiana governor stemmed from a short, off-the-cuff, conversation with President Trump and he dismisses the seriousness of the discussion.


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Sunday Talks: Pat Toomey and Chris Wallace Discuss GOP Position on Trade and Immigration…

Notice how Wallace never interrupts a Wall Street Decepticon?   Senator Pat Toomey (U-CoC) and swamp gatekeeper Chris Wallace discuss tariffs on China, the immigration crisis and a possible threat from Iran.


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"Strategery" – President Trump Instructs Ross and Lighthizer to Focus on Auto Sector….

Further evidence there will be no further engagement with China surfaces in an announced specific shift in directive from President Trump today focusing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and USTR Lighthizer on a sector, not a specific nation.
The auto industry is the key sector on two specific trade fronts: the EU trade reset and the ongoing negotiations with Japan.  Both trade agreements center heavily on the auto-sector; and both Japan and the EU have cemented intransigent trade positions.

Enter President Trump to cut the Gordian knot.
It’s a small but important note that President Trump had previously assigned geographic trade responsibilities.  Wilbur Ross has the EU as his primary focus and Robert Lighthizer has authority over Asia.  Today the White House connects the objective of both Ross and Lighthizer as President Trump instructs the U.S. Trade Representative to engage in discussions around the specifics of the auto-sector:

White House – […] Following an extensive review of the Department of Commerce’s Section 232 automobile report, President Trump today issued a proclamation directing the United States Trade Representative to negotiate agreements to address the national security threat, which is causing harm to the American automobile industry. (more)

The President has designated the auto industry as a critical component of national security [More Here].  With Ross’s report in hand, the possibility of increasing tariffs on foreign automobiles is the leverage POTUS gives to Lighthizer along with the mandate to engage.
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President Trump Removes Steel and Aluminum Tariffs From Canada and Mexico….

A combination of the NAFTA “Fatal Flaw” & transnational Chinese shipments, was always at the heart of President Trump placing steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico during negotiations that culminated in the USMCA trade agreement.  The goal was to block China from dumping product into the U.S. through the doors of Canada/Mexico.
Within the USMCA President Trump and Robert Lighthizer placed a specific rule Article 32:10 which grants the U.S. the right to veto (control) Canadian and Mexican purchase agreements with “Non FTA Market Countries”, ie. China.

This Article 32:10 rule is at the core of the USMCA agreement.   However, after the USMCA agreement was reached President Trump kept the Steel/Aluminum tariffs in place.  For those who don’t understand Trump (insert Chrystia Freeland here) the question was always: why?
Quite simply the answer behind the question was President Trump’s retention of leverage. Yes, in 2018 the USMCA was agreed to; however, the USMCA was not ratified by either Canada or Mexico…. it was only an agreement.  Why would Trump remove critical leverage on an initial promise.
Trump is not a politician; he’s a businessman who knows promises are paper until they become action. Additionally, President Trump is a tactician; the tariff leverage was held until such a time as removing it would generate an immediate gain in national compliance toward his trade objective… That’s the actionToday:

(Bloomberg) President Donald Trump said the U.S. will lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, boosting efforts to encourage lawmakers to ratify a new North American trade deal.
“I’m pleased to announce that we’ve just reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico and will be selling our product into those countries without the imposition of tariffs or major tariffs,” Trump said at an event Friday. “Hopefully Congress will approve the USMCA quickly.”

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China's Huawei, and 70 Affiliates, Placed on U.S. Trade Blacklist….

The overall strategery here is brilliant.  After two years of rope-a-dope…. Trump exits the corner for the championship rounds in the trade fight: First the body blow, China boxed-in with trade confrontation and consequences of retreat from agreement (Mnuchin and Lighthizer);… Then whammo, the roundhouse XO placing telecom under national security review (Navarro and Pillsbury); then upper-cut, Wilburine places Hauwei and affiliates on Commerce Dept. trade blacklist…  Lions and Killers and Strategists, oh my.

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday it is adding Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and 70 affiliates to its so-called “Entity List” – a move that bans the telecom giant from buying parts and components from U.S. companies without U.S. government approval.
U.S. officials told Reuters the decision would also make it difficult if not impossible for Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, to sell some products because of its reliance on U.S. suppliers.
Under the order that will take effect in the coming days, Huawei will need a U.S. government license to buy American technology. Huawei did not immediately comment.

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Unusual Agreement – Friedman and Bannon Align on China (Somewhat)…

Good discussion between Tom Friedman and Steve Bannon on the ‘big picture’ of the U.S. -vs- China geopolitical trade confrontation.   Friedman is an insufferable prog on methods, but he recognizes the President Trump approach is necessary.  Worth Watching:


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Where academic Friedman is helplessly naive is on the key point of how a coalition approach toward China is a pipe-dream.  When it comes to economics each entity has unique self-interests.  Put fifty self-interested governments together (ie. TPP) and you end up with paralysis of analysis and no action; as each entity fights to hold their own interest over the group interest….. While China grows in the background.
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President Trump Points Out Alternate Favorable Trade Partners – The 2017 "Golden Ticket" Summit….

CTH was wondering how long it would take for President Trump to point out the brutally obvious…. Thanks to some advanced planning that everyone ignored, there are multiple trade alternatives to China:

Perhaps now people will reference President Trump’s long-game strategy which has been evident since his marathon Asia trip in November 2017.
Long before media pundits starting noticing/considering how serious President Trump was about structurally resetting the entire landscape of a U.S-China trade relationship,  President Trump quietly and methodically laid the groundwork with personal visits to: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Japan); President Moon Jae-in (S-Korea); President Tran Dai Quang (Vietnam); and President Rodrigo Duerte (Philippines).
Oh, how quickly the media forgot.
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