There is a lot of rapid information about events worth putting into a calendar context to see the democrat mapping.   David Holmes has just been added to Thursday’s public impeachment testimony (Nov 21st); he will join Fiona Hill.  In essence this rapid addition highlights Schiff on a tight schedule, and his portion ends November 21st, this week.

Additionally today, as expected, it is now reported that Pelosi will take up a short-term continuing resolution (CR) tomorrow to fund government; that will push govt funding to December 20th aligning with the mid-December budget vote plans: Impeach, USMCA and budget).  This intentionally designed delay aligns with Pelosi and House counsel Doug Letter requesting a delay in SCOTUS review of arguments for Trump Taxes.  Everything gets punted to after Thanksgiving; then mid-December they will flood the zone.
However, outside of the House control, Lindsey Graham has announced Dec 11th as the date for Horowitz to testify, which makes the likely FISA report on/around Dec. 2nd.
It’s worth putting it all into a calendar to see how the end of the year is shaping up.
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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss two key economic and trade issues: (1) the current status of U.S-China trade discussions “round one”; and (2) the status of USMCA ratification (Pelosi’s delay).
Nothing in the China trade discussion is solid, until everything in the China trade discussion is settled; this is one of the key aspects to President Trump’s directive to USTR Robert Lighthizer.  No deal is a more favorable outcome than the construct of a trade deal that cannot be enforced.
On the USMCA ratification, again it all falls upon the politics of Pelosi.  The agreement would pass tomorrow if it were put up to a vote; there is no controversy.  Speaker Pelosi is holding back the ratification vote for pure political purposes.

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USMCA ratification is the first domino in long-chain of ‘America First’ economic benefits. As soon as USMCA passes a wave of North American investment will surge. The downstream consequences includes leverage for U.S-China, U.S-Europe, U.S-India and U.S-U.K trade agreements.
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Earlier today Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared for an interview with Maria Bartiromo on the status of phase-one for the U.S-China trade deal, Huawei and ZTE national security concerns, and Speaker Pelosi blocking ratification of the USMCA agreement.
Secretary Ross cautions the Chinese deal is contingent on some very particular and important enforcement details. Additionally Ross discusses the potential national security issues with 5G network and AG Bill Barr having strong concerns about Huawei and ZTE.

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Leader Kevin McCarthy just put some specific dates to a sequence we anticipated several months ago.
During a Fox interview with Laura Ingraham (I’ll look for video) McCarthy predicts Speaker Pelosi will bring up the impeachment vote on/around December 16th; then follow-up the impeachment vote with USMCA ratification and the budget passage on/around December 20th allowing the Democrats to go home for the holidays with all three goals accomplished.
This prediction by Leader McCarthy is very likely. Earlier today Speaker Poli-Grip said passing the USMCA was “imminent“.  In essence, she’s holding the USMCA vote as an ace to highlight a bipartisan legislative accomplishment by her party.
We noted last month: Nancy Pelosi will bring the USMCA to a vote timed with the impeachment vote. This plan allows democrats to try and dilute the political nature of the impeachment scheme by referencing the Trump administration USMCA vote as an example of Democrats not being political. This is how they scheme.

…’See, we’re not politically motivated, we’re giving the same president we are impeaching a win; because this trade deal is in the best interest of America.  Just like the impeachment of this corrupt president is in the best interest of America’….

A very strong jobs market, and wage growth for the middle-class at the highest rate in decades, continues to benefit Main Street USA.  As noted within the sales and earnings report from Walmart today, the U.S. middle-class continues to thrive in a MAGA-driven U.S. economy.

(Reuters) […] Consumer spending going in to the crucial holiday season remains healthy, Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. Retailers earn a sizeable chunk of their annual revenue during November and December.
“The consumer remains in pretty good shape, employment situation is good, fuel prices are low … wage growth is pretty good,” he said. (more)

It is easy to forget how two-years-ago the doomsayers and financial pundits were claiming President Trump’s tariff policies were going to create massive price increases.  They were completely wrong in their predictions.  The latest U.S. inflation reports show low inflation at 1.8 percent year-over-year.
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Funny stuff amid headlines discussing the likelihood of President Trump postponing a 25% tariff on European autos.  What the pundits are missing is how President Trump has positioned a myriad of trade dynamics that make EU action unavoidable.   This is the fun stuff, so let’s enjoy the details.
The current headlines surround President Trump “postponing” a 25% tariff on EU automobiles as an outcome of the major EU manufacturers (mostly Germany) promising increased investment in their U.S. operations.  By itself this would be considered a win for President Trump, but that’s not the whole picture, not even close.

What the more broad trade and manufacturing dynamic includes will explain what EU economists are only just now starting to realize.  Yes, the major European auto-makers will put more investment into the United States (thereby lessening the EU industrial economy); however, the auto decision is not because they are presenting a magnanimous benefit of sorts, but rather it is a foregone conclusion; an unavoidable reality due to a previous trade agreement construct.
Within the USMCA agreement President Trump negotiated a win-win-win for Mexico, Canada and the U.S. through a requirement that 75 percent of North American auto content must originate from manufacturing within North America.  Failure to reach that threshold means the auto company will be subject to a 25 percent tariff to bring the product to the U.S. market.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a statement out today that underlines why so many global forces are against President Trump: “there are trillions at stake”.

(Reuters) – An interim U.S.-China trade deal that rolls back some tariffs has the potential to improve the International Monetary Fund’s baseline economic forecasts, which show the two countries’ trade war slowing global growth significantly this year, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. (read more)

The baseline for the position of the IMF is the open secret amid global economic that few will ever discuss openly.  The U.S. economy generates approximately $21 trillion in total activity; roughly 20 percent of total global economic activity.
When the U.S. maintains a $500 billion per year trade deficit with China, essentially we are sending China trade dollars Beijing then uses to purchase industrial products from the EU an other nations.  Any reduction in the U.S-China deficit means China has less dollars to distribute; as an outcome the global economies have access to less U.S. wealth.
The process to retain U.S. dollars inside our own economy, President Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, is the heart of what most call the global economic slowdown.  As a result the position of the IMF is better when the U.S. maintains a deficit, and the position of the IMF is weakened by any process that stops that exfiltration of wealth.
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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the latest excellent jobs report and the overall strength of the U.S. economy.
Additional points of interest discussed are the U.S-China trade negotiations, the status of the internal Beijing communist control over their economy and the ongoing issues with the EU.  Lots of good MAGAnomic news.

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White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox Business to discuss the purpose and intent of the USMCA and the ongoing China trade discussions.
What Navarro skims upon is the heart of the economic purpose behind the USMCA as requested by President Trump and constructed by USTR Lighthizer. The USMCA establishes an internal North American manufacturing system; this provides the alternative for Asian manufacturing of goods for the U.S. market.
This manufacturing system is why Mexico is “all-in” to support the USMCA. Additionally, the economic benefits within the system as constructed is exactly why Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is willing to pressure House democrats to ratify and also back-up President Trump on other geopolitical issues (immigration controls etc).

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On the Stock Market dynamic. Currently there is a great deal of investment capital waiting to see where the money should be placed. Investment in China has dropped dramatically; investment in Southeast Asia shifted, but new investment is pending this outcome. Multinationals are calculating the TCP (Total Cost of Production), and if the new USMCA is passed there will be a triggering effect of North American investment because the uncertainty will be eliminated.
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White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro discusses the lack of action from Speaker Pelosi on ratification of the USMCA.
As CTH has outlined since the July 2019 alliance meeting between Pelosi and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the strongest likelihood is the House will table the ratification vote until after the 2020 election. It is a strategic political decision.

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