For those following the nuance within ongoing U.S. trade discussions you have likely noted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speaking optimistically about a potential for a U.S. Mexico trade agreement. However, simultaneously the U.S. trade team is not optimistic about any deal with Canada.
Mexico’s President-Elect Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has changed the trade dynamic internally within NAFTA for two reasons: #1) because the agriculture sector is much more critical to Mexico than it is to Canada; and #2) AMLO acknowledges and accepts the NAFTA fatal flaw; his manufacturing economy is based on the assembly of imported parts – like Canada, Mexico doesn’t actually manufacture much (ex. no aluminum smelters).
[Pompeo congratulating AMLO – Not an accidental delegation]
In the big picture AMLO wants to advance the Mexican manufacturing base; expand the aggregate economic base; and also stop the corporate exploitation of the Mexican farm worker. In these objectives U.S. President Trump is more than willing to be a partner with President Lopez Obrador. Heck, President Trump would actually love to assist AMLO on that agenda; it is mutually beneficial.
Diametrically, in Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has doubled-down on the retention of the fatal flaw and does not want an expanded domestic manufacturing base. The enviro-nuts of his base just will not support it. Therefore, Canada is loggerheads with the United States because Canada is demanding to retain their NAFTA access to the U.S. market, and simultaneously retain their ability to broker imported Chinese goods.
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