March Jobs Report – 196,000 Jobs Gained, Unemployment Rate Remains 3.8%, Wage Growth 3.2%….

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March employment report earlier today showing strong job growth of 196,000 with the unemployment rate remaining 3.8%.  Also, in March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $27.70, following a 10-cent gain in February. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent.

The employment result was stronger than most analysts predicted; and comes amid stronger home sales and higher manufacturing numbers.  The economy is strong, balanced and shows no signs of weakness.  January and February were also revised upward by 14k.
The strong March (+196k) makes the weak February report (+33k) look like an outlier.  Using January (+312k), the three-month average is now 180,000 jobs gained.

(Via CNBC) […] Economists had been expecting 175,000 jobs for March. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% as expected.

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President Trump Delivers Remarks on China Trade and U.S-Mexico Border Issues (Video and Transcript)…

President Trump delivered remarks today during a White House Opportunity and Revitalization economic group meeting. [Video and Transcript Below] What is the axiom that needs to be continually referenced when contemplating the forces aligned against President Donald Trump?  “There are trillions at stake“.
President Trump is single-handily navigating U.S. interests amid a landscape where the entire BIG CLUB is aligned against him.  All but a handful of DC politicians are owned by Wall Street’s BIG CLUB (Donohue and McConnell); multinationals & allied media. Meanwhile, to enhance their self-interests/plans, the ‘Occupy’ left-wing Democrats have abandoned all prior positions and joined a tactical alliance with Wall Street in the hopes of removing President Trump.  These are the forces against all ‘America First‘ policies.


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[Transcript] -White House – […] PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’re losing, a few years ago, two hundred, routinely, to China. We can’t do that. We’re going to turn it around. It’s got to be a great deal. If it’s not a great deal, we’re not doing it.
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MAGAnomic Report: Weekly Jobless Claims Reach Lowest Point in 50 years…

This is a rather remarkable statistic [Technical Data Here] Weekly unemployment claims dropped to 202,000 for the week ending March 30th.  That’s the lowest level of jobless claims since December 1959.  More people are working today than ever in U.S. history. [The DOL jobless claims statistic is not connected to the unemployment rate; the BLS unemployment report for March will be announced tomorrow morning.]

(Via CNBC) The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a more than 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite slowing economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 30, the lowest level since early December 1969, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

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Reminder: China's Structural Economic Weakness – Why they Need "One-Belt, One-Road"…

[Originally posted in 2017] To understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy it becomes necessary to understand how structurally weak the Chinese economy was when created.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy -manufacturing- they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and lightly discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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Crisis Response – President Trump Announces Plan to Close U.S-Mexico Border Next Week…

President Trump tweeted earlier today that he plans to close at least a portion of the U.S-Mexico border next week in an effort to force Mexico to take action and stop the constant caravans of migrants.  Because the economic consequences to border closing will be so severe (cross-border trade) it is prudent to provide advanced notice so everyone can prepare:

Something has to change. Doing the same thing repeatedly and not changing the outcome is not a sustainable policy.  There is a major ongoing crisis at the border.

(Via NBC) […] Trump has threatened to close the border before. In December, amid the partial government shutdown, Trump threatened to close the border if Democrats didn’t agree to fund the construction of his border wall.

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President Trump Rightly Tells General Motors and UAW to Get Their Act Together – Lordstown Ohio, Auto-Plant…

Calling attention to the brutally obvious is a key element to President Trump’s use of Twitter.  In this example President Trump (the business executive) highlights how GM is shutting an Ohio auto-plant at the same time multiple auto manufacturers are expanding operations in the U.S.

President Trump is 100% correct.  In just the past few months, specifically as an outcome of the USMCA, six auto companies have decided to massively expand U.S. operations and spend over $20 billion on auto-manufacturing investments in the U.S.
It makes no sense for an existing auto plant to sit idle.  Come to terms with the UAW; make a good deal that helps membership and incentivizes ownership; sell the facility to a new group expanding U.S. investment; retool, and get people back to work.   Consider:
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USMCA Consequences – Toyota Increases U.S. Investment to $13 Billion, Expands Component Manufacturing in AL, KY, MO, TN, and WV…

Toyota made a huge announcement today [SEE HERE] that’s a direct outcome of the NAFTA replacement USMCA trade deal; and the new 75% rule of origin within the Auto sector.


The Toyota announcement is a total of $13 billion investment and includes expanded component part production in: Alabama ($288 million), Kentucky ($238 million), Missouri ($62 million), Tennessee ($50 million) and West Virginia ($111 million).   Additionally, Toyota will open a new assembly plant in Huntsville, Alabama ($1.5 billion) and serious investments in several other areas. [Details Here]
The guiding decision here relates specifically to the construct of the USMCA (NAFTA replacement).   Toyota was previously focused on multi-billion-dollar investments in Canada as they exploited the NAFTA loophole and procured component parts from Asia for North American assembly and shipment into the U.S. Market.  However, when they renegotiated NAFTA and created the USMCA President Trump and USTR Lighthizer closed closed the loophole.
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Senator Lindsey Graham Discusses FISA Abuse Investigation…

Chairman Lindsey Graham appears on late-night-interuptus to discuss his Senate Judiciary investigation into allegations of FISA abuse, etc.


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Labor Reports: Annual Inflation Rate 1.5%, Annual Rate of Wage Growth 3.5%…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released some important data today surrounding the state of the U.S. economy. The first release shows the current CPI (consumer price index) or rate of inflation:

(BLS Release) […] The all items index increased 1.5 percent for the 12 months ending February, a smaller increase than the 1.6-percent rise for the 12-months ending January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, a slightly smaller figure than the 2.2-percent increase for the period ending January. The food index rose 2.0 percent over the past year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2015. In contrast, the energy index declined 5.0 percent over the last 12 months. (read more)

As noted above, energy prices are 5.0% lower year-over-year; this is a significant reason for the current low inflationary rate.  Also energy prices (fuel, gas, oil) disproportionately impact the middle-class as an unavoidable cost.  Lower gas prices (currently down 9.1%) help middle-America, and also have a downstream impact of lowering product transportation costs.
An overall annual rate of inflation at 1.5 percent is exactly on target.  CTH has been predicting this energy-based outcome for more than three years:
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