White House Trade and Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNN to debate economic policy with Jake Tapper. As customary Tapper attempts to use the Multinational Big AG talking points to identify farmers as victims.
♦The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.623% Wednesday for less than one hour; momentarily below the 2-year bond rate of 1.634%. The cause was a rapid influx of foreign capital, mostly from the EU (due to negative interest rates), into the U.S. to secure a return. This is not comparable to the historic ‘bond rate inversion’.
♦The biggest fallacy pushed in this interview, YET AGAIN, surrounds price impacts on Chinese imports. Tapper takes the talking points of the Wall Street multinationals, and their paid think-tanks, to push an empirically false assertion of the U.S. consumer paying for tariffs on China. Here’s the easiest refutation of that nonsense:

• The Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs have been in place for two years.
• The 25% tariff on $250 billion Chinese goods have been in place over a full year.
• The current inflation rate (Consumer Price Index) is only 1.4%.

(Bureau of Economic Analysis – Personal Income and Consumer Price Index)

If the tariffs on China were impacting consumers, inflation would be much higher. In fact the exact opposite is happening. Because the protectionist Chinese and EU currency manipulation hits *ALL* imports, including non-tariff products, we are actually importing deflation.

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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on NBC with Chuck Todd to debate the issues surrounding current trade and economic policy.  While Todd is obviously annoying, Kudlow makes two important points:

1.  The Q3 CapEx (capital expenditure) spending reflects a domestic energy sector investment pause related to the dropped cost of oil. A fluctuation related to extraction costs and projected finished product price. [Energy companies pause on low price.]
2. The Sept. “Next Step” tariff delay relates to pre-contracted prices of holiday goods with the import price attached to lower dollar value at the time of contract. The delay allows the arrival of product without price impact. If products were determined with current valuations the current arrival price would have been lower (offsetting tariffs).

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An interesting article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) highlights how China is shifting their procurement priority from minerals used in manufacturing (cobalt, copper) to the acquisition of food and agriculture products.
The impact is being felt throughout Africa, where mining companies are shutting down operations because Chinese demand no longer exists.
Articles like this highlight the ancillary impacts of a weakened Chinese economy.
Despite the proclamations by Beijing about their ability to withstand the withdrawal of the U.S. as a primary customer for manufactured goods, reality shows they cannot.
There is a confluence of events all leading to radical changes just below the surface.  China has been burning cash to subsidize industries impacted by U.S. tariffs.  Simultaneously Beijing has lowered the value of their currency in an effort to eliminate the tariff impact in the cost of their finished goods. However, as the ideological economic conflict between the U.S. and China continues, Beijing cannot hold their position indefinitely.
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On Thursday June 20, 2019, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and democrat leadership.  After the political ideologues held the meeting, Trudeau and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled the Canadian ratification on the USMCA trade agreement.
It was obvious both groups of avowed leftists agreed to stall the USMCA for politics.
On August 13th White House emissary National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Britian’s Chancellor of Exchequer Sajid Javid, and the public became aware of efforts toward a six month post Brexit U.S-U.K trade agreement that would become effective on November 1st, 2019; immediately the day after Brexit was official.
On August 14th Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly rushed a press release saying the House would never support that interim U.S-U.K trade agreement, using cover story of worry about Ireland/Northern Ireland peace accord.  Beyond all the talking points the baseline reason for Pelosi’s opposition is Democrats do not support Brexit.  Both the immediacy and the construct of the counter-maneuver by Pelosi were noted. [House in recess].
Immediately after the deal between President Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson became public; an intense international media effort began to push a narrative of the “U.S. heading to a recession”.  The group of corporate financial media interests; those who advance the interests of Wall Street and are adamantly adverse to a global trade reset; and the political opposition to Donald Trump, began using a recession talking point in unison.
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After federal authorities raided seven chicken processing facilities in Mississippi last week evidence is now surfacing (within probable cause affidavits – full pdf below) of willful and intentional illegal hiring practices.  But don’t look for all the employers to be prosecuted.
The Washington Post has an excellent outline of the seven facilities citing dozens of instances where evidence shows each company knew they were hiring people who were not legally eligible for work.
In a surprising number of cases the illegal employees were arrested by Border Patrol in California, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona and released on electronic-monitoring programs, including ankle bracelets, to await court dates.
According to the affidavits federal authorities tracked the GPS locators on some of the employees and found they were illegally working in all of the facilities.  During interviews with the workers they stated how friends and family members in Mexico and Guatemala told them where to go for work in Mississippi.
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Early on Tuesday United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the modification of “next step” tariffs on Chinese products.  [See Here] “Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”

President Trump responded to the delay/modification when questioned in New Jersey.  President Trump noted a “very productive” phone call between Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He of China:

[Transcript Segment] – […] Q Why did you make the decision on the tariffs, to delay the implementation of the tariffs?
THE PRESIDENT: Only to help, I think, a lot of different groups of people. And we had a very good talk yesterday with China — a very, very productive call. I think they want to do something. I think they’d like to do something dramatic. I was not sure whether or not they wanted to wait until a Democrat has a chance to get in. Hopefully that’s not going to happen because the economy would go to hell in a handbasket very fast.

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Those who could not see this coming are those who just don’t pay attention to how President Trump operates the geopolitical influence of economics.  This is Trumpian.
U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are walking their respective trade teams through a process to deliver a U.S-U.K trade deal on the day after a no-deal Brexit is scheduled to happen October 31st.  An interim trade agreement that goes into effect November 1st 2019 is pure Donald Trump win/win deal-making.

President Trump supports the nationalistic position, purposes and intents of Brexit. PM Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit by the mandatory date of October 31st.  One of the benefits, and also concerns amid the political left in the U.K, surrounds the economic impacts.  President Trump and PM Johnson would counter all those concerns with the announcement of an agreement for an interim bilateral trade deal ahead of Brexit.
This strategic approach, a deal that delivers both the Brexit result and the economic stability to offset any Brexit downside concerns, was the original idea that President Trump proposed to Theresa May two years ago.

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain and the United States are discussing a partial trade accord that could take effect on Nov. 1, the day after Britain is due to leave the European Union, a senior Trump administration official said on Tuesday.

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First rule in geopolitics, it’s always about the economics.  Second rule in geopolitics: refer to rule #1.    Understanding this basic truism is the key to understand how President Trump is able to be so effective.  There are trillions at stake, and infinite interests.

“Economic security is national security.” ~President Trump

All politics circles back to the underlying economics; whether it is an individual financial self-interest for a specific politician, or whether it is a larger financial interest for a group or even a nation.  Everything is always about the money, and that essential truth is why Donald Trump is so uniquely qualified, influential and stunningly effective. Today:

(VIA CBC) The United States would “enthusiastically” support a no-deal Brexit if that is what the British government decided to do, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told reporters on Monday.
[…]  As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, its biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, many diplomats expect London to become increasingly reliant on the United States.
“If that’s the decision of the British government we will support it enthusiastically, and that’s what I’m trying to convey. We’re with you, we’re with you,” said Bolton, in London for two days of talks with British officials. The U.S. administration is seeking an improved U.S.-British relationship with Prime Minister Boris Johnson after sometimes tense ties between Donald Trump and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

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The White House has announced the Trump administration will enforce long-standing immigration laws that require entrants to be economically self-sufficient and limits public welfare benefits.   An entry alien who is -or becomes- dependent on public welfare assistance, is known as a “public charge”.   Aliens will be barred from entering the United States if they are deemed likely to become public charges, or welfare dependent.
These immigration rules have been in place for over 100 years, and generally were strictly enforced until the last 25 years.  The Trump administration is re-enforcing the rules.

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The enforcement action will have a direct bearing on the current immigration process as most border arrivals are economic migrants manipulating asylum claims.  Immigration based on self-sufficiency has been U.S. law for generations.
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After reviewing the unexpected resignation of Canadian Ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, several aspects of the U.S-Canada economic relationship; and the larger political ideological relationship between the far-left in both countries; begins to take a sharper focus.
Justin from Canada has acquiesced to the influence of democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and agreed to postpone any USMCA ratification vote in Parliament until Pelosi gives Justin her approval.  For political purposes, Speaker Pelosi is attempting to stall the USMCA vote in congress, which directly supports China, as long as possible.

When we first reviewed this political quid-pro-quo, we wondered if Justin from Canada was actually willing to hurt his own economy just to assist the political efforts of U.S. democrats.  Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding yes.

OTTAWA—Canada’s unemployment rate rose in July as the economy unexpectedly shed jobs for a second straight month, fueling speculation over a possible Bank of Canada rate cut later this year.
The Canadian economy lost a net 24,200 jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Friday. Market expectations were for a net job increase of 12,500.

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