On Tuesday afternoon President Trump was asked a question by media about Kim Jong Un.  President Trump responded to the question, and simultaneously delivered an openly coded message to Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping that few would understand:

[Transcript] Q (Inaudible) about your meeting with Kim Jong Un while you’re in South Korea? Are there discussions underway?
THE PRESIDENT: So, I see that. And I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un, and I think the relationship is very well. But I appreciated the letter. I saw the information about the CIA, with respect to his brother, or half-brother. And I would tell him that would not happen under my auspices, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t let that happen under my auspices.
But I just received a beautiful letter from Kim Jong Un. I can’t show you the letter, obviously, but it was a very personal, very warm, very nice letter. I appreciate it.

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There’s always a larger geopolitical dynamic when you assess the economic alliances that President Trump puts together…. Always and underlying plan…  Sometimes it just takes time to surface.
As we have noted, even going back to 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe always appeared to be the fulcrum for President Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy.  

Remember the trip to Japan as honored guests of Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako at the Imperial Palace?  Remember last month’s (May 25th) unprecedented reception with the titans of Japanese business?  Remember the private reception set up by a very nervous U.S. Ambassador William F. Hagerty?  A reception with the most influential business CEO’s in Japan and Southeast Asia? 
Well…

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s Tokyo Electron, the world’s No.3 supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, will not supply to Chinese clients blacklisted by Washington, a senior company executive told Reuters.
The decision shows how Washington’s effort to bar sales of technology to Chinese firms, including Huawei Technologies, is ensnaring non-American firms that are not obliged to follow U.S. law.

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As once noted by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, U.S. President Donald Trump often does geopolitical messaging through twitter that is missed by the U.S. media but hits the target as subtle as a brick through a window. President Trump’s latest tweet on North Korea is a prime example.
If you view this tweet with the perspective that Chairman Kim Jong-un is essentially a hostage of Beijing masters, controlling the upper tier of his military, things make a lot more sense:

…And given the nature of the public comments by President Trump and Prime Minister Abe (transcript pending) during the current state visit; it would appear that Trump has enlisted Abe in hostage rescue efforts.
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The White House provided a background presser for information about President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump’s upcoming state visit to Japan.  [Transcript below] There are some interesting aspects to the itinerary as outlined; however, first, it’s important to emphasize the context.
As CTH shared earlier: At the highest levels of finance and business; in a process within both private industry and the geopolitical realm of government; a key aspect to every long-term strategic reset is the formation of an alliance.  Every successful titan of industry who has structurally changed history has influenced an alliance toward the effort.

I strongly suspect, in anticipation of the China confrontation; and considering the scale of the consequences therein; President Trump selected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as the center of an Indo-Pacific alliance (several years ago).  With the knowledge of USTR Lighthizer heading to Japan with an advance trade team…. now consider:

Via Teleconference – 2:31 P.M. EDT – PRESS OFFICER: Good afternoon, everybody. I’m happy you all could join. We have with us today [senior administration official]. He’ll be providing some brief remarks about the President’s upcoming trip to Japan and a few Q&A afterwards. This will be on background and you can attribute what he says to a senior administration official.

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In a clear signal toward the trade conflict with the United States, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping is preparing his nation for a protracted trade conflict. Chinese state-run media have been deploying propaganda to shift public opinion toward the U.S. as a direct threat, and the latest developments by Xi showcase that agenda.

(South China Post) Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for the nation to embark on a new Long March and “start all over again”, in the most dramatic sign to date that Beijing has given up hope of reaching a trade deal with the United States in the near term.
Xi is in Jiangxi province for his first domestic tour since the escalation of the trade war two weeks ago. Jiangxi is where China’s defeated Red Army started its fabled Long March in 1934, and Xi’s choice of destination is being viewed as an effort to invoke a spirit of endurance and to rally public spirit amid rising tensions with Washington.

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The Southern District of New York has released a criminal complaint to accompany the seizure of a North Korean freighter “Wise Honest” (Full pdf below). The freighter was seized by Indonesian authorities on/around April 2, 2018 [media story here]. However, the background story of Wise Honest is more interesting.

The indictment outlines how the freighter was used to transport coal from North Korea to China and Russia and back-haul heavy equipment from Chinese ports into the DPRK. However, the transport network changed with the timing of increased sanctions on the DPRK.  Simply, the ship was routed to avoid being caught for violating sanctions.
The indictment also outlines how Chinese entities in Hong Kong assisted with routing the vessel to avoid maritime surveillance. There’s an aspect here that overlays a prior set of CTH discussions surrounding U.S. Navy training for a potential U.S. maritime blockade.
You might remember November 2017 CTH discussions about U.S. vessels conducting training exercises in/around shipping lanes. In 2017 and 2018 there were some maritime collisions that seemed to align with the possibility of these training exercises. In June 2017 The USS Fitzgerald was one such example near the coast of Japan.
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This is the big one.  This is the inflection moment.  Tonight around 5:00pm Chinese Vice-Chairman Liu He will engage with team U.S.A. on the substantive issues around the future of the U.S-China trade relationship.   Trillions at stake.
At midnight tonight the tariffs on Round One of Chinese goods are scheduled to increase from 10 percent to 25 percent.  Round Two is yet determined.  The background for the disposition of TEAM USA was outlined HERE.

Mnuchin – Trump – Lighthizer and Ross

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin previously worked a 150-page outline agreement with China on seven chapters of trade issues covering: Theft of U.S. intellectual property; protection for trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation.  Last week China reversed course on all of the substantive agreements. 
Today Vice-Chairman Liu He is going to try to justify to President Trump why China can no longer accept the commitments they made over the past three months.
It cannot be overstated how everything in/around DC must first be filtered through the prism of this inflection point.  At the heart of U.S. politics, the majority of the Senate Chamber is aligned with the Chinese through purchased multinational lobbying interests. Again, there are trillions at stake.  Wall Street through K-Street has paid the Big Club to defend their multinational/financial interests from President Trump.
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We have discussed the Chinese outlook toward trade and negotiations at great length.  One of the overriding issues has always been the zero-sum disposition of China as it relates to any engagement. To wit: if it does not benefit China, it simply is not done.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome.  If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war.  In politics or economics the same perspective is true.  It is a zero-sum outlook. (link)

Against the collapse of trade negotiations, the ideology of Chairman Xi Jinping is showcased today in the first official responses from the Chinese government toward the U.S. initiating tariffs due to Beijing’s duplicitous reversal on prior commitments.

(SCMP) Beijing will not make concessions in trade talks in response to Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, Chinese state media said in a commentary published a day after the US president announced increases in duties on Chinese goods.
“Things we think are advantageous for us, we will do it even without anyone asking,” People’s Daily reported on its WeChat account on Tuesday.
“Things that are unfavourable to us, no matter how you ask, we will not take any step back. Do not even think about it.”

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Well, it looks like all suspicions are now confirmed. The dragon dance of 2017 and 2018 has extended into 2019. DPRK Chairman Kim fires rockets, Trump smacks Chinese Chairman Xi. Yes, we can officially put the remaining bits of skepticism to rest…
The meeting last week between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and their Chinese counterparts including Vice-Chairman Liu, was especially important.  Mnuchin and Lighthizer said they would debrief President Trump on the likelihood of whether a successful trade deal with a communist regime was structurally possible; or whether Beijing was playing a game of delay.
The ongoing dance with the dragon has been a series of cunning manuevers between the Panda mask and the Dragon face. At the conclusion of the Beijing visit by Mnuchin and Lighthizer, Chinese Chairman Xi sent a proactive response using his familiar proxy North Korean Chairman Kim. The DPRK test-fired three missiles.
Today President Trump responds:

The increase of the Round-1 tariffs from 10% to 25%, previously delayed after discussions between Xi and Trump in Argentina, will now be triggered. Additionally, the Round-2 tariffs (25% on $325 billion of different goods), originally scheduled for March 1, also postponed after the Argentina dinner, will now be implemented.
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joins a breathless and dramatic Margaret Brennan to discuss issues related to the recent North Korean missile test; China putting Muslims in “concentration camps”, and the ongoing crisis in Venezuela.