The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
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Earlier today President Trump sent a warning tweet about Apple possibly incurring tariffs on their products if they continue a plan for manufacturing in China.  Later in the day the president answered direct questions about those possible tariffs.
Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First, there’s a very clear picture; however, most pundits and trade analysts will likely ignore the message.

Subtle as a brick through a window…. yet it’s amazing how many people can’t see it.
Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class that the current objective for Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer is to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.  That’s a big tell.
After several phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team doesn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.  In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize markets.
It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China.  Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.
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President Trump ‘unexpectedly‘ negotiated a major asylum deal with the government of Guatemala.  In a surprise announcement on Friday President Trump invited the press into the oval office where Guatemalan Interior Minister Enrique Degenhart and acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan were gathered in advance.

It’s important to remember that President Trump spoke about this on Wednesday during an impromptu presser.  In essence President Trump delivered an offer/threat at the end of several months of negotiations.  REMINDER:

Q What are you going to do about Guatemala? Guatemala. What are you going to do about Guatemala?
THE PRESIDENT: So, Guatemala gave us their word. We were going to sign a safe third agreement and then, all of a sudden, they backed up. They said it was their supreme court. I don’t believe that. But they use their supreme court as the reason they didn’t want to do it.
So we’ll either do tariffs or we’ll do something. We’re looking at something very severe with respect to Guatemala. I’ve already cut all payments; I did that a year ago. I cut all payments going to Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. We used to send them $500 million for nothing. For nothing. They didn’t do anything except set up caravans.
So, Guatemala we’re going to take care of and it won’t even be tough. We’re going to do — we’re looking at a couple of different things. ~ Wednesday July 24th, 2019.

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A major win for the Trump administration as the Supreme Court has just ruled to stay a lower court ruling that blocked the President from using $2.5 billion in defense funds to build border security wall.   This means the Department of Homeland Security can now use $2.5 billion in defense appropriations to build the border wall.  A massive win!

The ruling was 5-4 with the liberal justices in the minority.

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Friday allowed the Trump administration to move forward with plans to build a wall along parts of the Mexican border while litigation over paying for it proceeds.

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In an effort to deal with the problem of growing fraudulent asylum claims at the southern U.S. border, the Trump administration is modifying the asylum rules to include a requirement that asylum should be sought at the first safe country of travel.
During a video interview U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Acting Director Ken Cuccinelli explains the new rule requiring asylum-seekers to apply in the first country they enter instead of the U.S.

(Fox News) – The Trump administration on Monday announced a sweeping new policy tightening restrictions for asylum seekers, in a move that could drastically reduce the number of Central American migrants eligible to enter the United States in this way.

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We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.
Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !
Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

SCMP – The participation of China’s Commerce Minister in the latest trade discussion with the United States was “normal”, China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday, playing down the eye-catching change in Beijing’s negotiating team.

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Senator Lindsey Graham traveled to the U.S-Mexico border region on Friday with Vice-President Mike Pence.  Graham appears with Maria Bartiromo to discuss that visit and the politics of congressional inaction to stop the border crisis.

CTH has tracked this issue so closely through the years it often feels futile for another reminder. However, with the insufferable political games in the headlines over the issue of illegal immigrants and children, perhaps it is worth another visit.
There is no greater disconnect from ordinary Americans on any singular issue than the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans in Washington DC surrounding illegal immigration. President Donald Trump is confronting their unified interests.

Understanding The Big Racket.

Massive illegal immigration is supported by both sides of the professional political machine. There are few issues more unifying for the K-Street purchased voices of DC politicians than keeping the U.S. borders open and the influx of illegal aliens as high as possible. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce pays politicians to keep this system in place.
All Democrats and most Republicans support mass immigration. Almost no DC politicians want to take action on any policy or legislation that stops the influx. There are billions at stake. None of the GOP leadership want to actually stop illegal immigration; it’s a lucrative business. Almost all of the CONservative groups and politicians lie about it.
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As immigration enforcement leads the Sunday headlines, White House Adviser Kellyanne Conway appears on Fox News to debate the international defender of all downtrodden economic migration, Chris Wallace.
The ever-insufferable Wallace takes his natural Fos/GOPe cocktail circuit position that all immigration enforcement is antithetical to the global rights of humans to have unfettered access to the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump is attending an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, today to discuss the importance of a North American trade bloc and support the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal.
Anticipated start time approximately 2:25pm EST.
UPDATE: Video Added