An interesting line-up of scheduled meetings (bilats) for U.S. President Donald Trump as the first official full day of the G7 Summit agenda takes place.
French President Macron has scheduled summit priorities around gender studies, global inequities, climate issues and planetary justice. However, the majority of international media focus will likely be on President Trump and Boris Johnson’s economic discussions.

♦ 2:15am EST / 8:15am CEST – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working breakfast with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Biarritz, France
♦ 3:20am EST / 9:20am CEST – THE PRESIDENT departs Hotel du Palais en route to Centre de Congrès Bellevue, Biarritz, France
♦ 3:25am EST / 9:25am CEST – THE PRESIDENT arrives at Centre de Congrès Bellevue, Biarritz, France, the primary venue for the G7 Summit.
(more…)

President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump depart tonight for an overnight flight to Biarritz, France to attend the G7 summit.  The first couple will arrive at 1:00pm Saturday / 7:00am Eastern.  Biarritz is 6 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Timezone.
The original function of the G7 was to focus on economics and world trade.  President Trump and the U.S. delegation are returning the emphasis toward that original intent during this G7 summit.  At the request of President Trump, there is a G7 Sunday morning session dedicated to global economics, international trade, and economic security.

(Background Details from White House)  SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: Sure. Thank you so much, [senior administration official]. And I guess it’s morning or good afternoon there, everyone. I am now in Biarritz, France. I’m the [redacted].
So what I wanted to do is start by outlining the schedule of events and various sessions that are taking place over the next few days. And then I will go through and highlight some of the key themes that the President is going to be talking about and pushing out while he is here over the weekend.
(more…)

President Trump has announced the raising of tariffs on China effective Sept 1st and October 1st, 2019.  This is one arrow in a quiver filled with economic consequences:

• The preexisting 25 percent tariff on $250 billion in Chinese goods will increase to 30 percent effective October 1st, 2019.
• The pre-planned 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods will increase to 15 percent, effective September 1st, 2019.

This targeted tariff approach is only a small sample of the economic action that is available to President Trump.  There are a host of tools and targeted economic weapons available to President Trump that are far more damaging to Beijing.
This announcement also sends a clear message to the members of the G7 as they prepare for their meetings in France.
(more…)

Within the dynamic of the U.S -vs- China trade confrontation, CTH has long noted the Wall Street (globalist) multinationals would always go bananas.  There are trillions at stake and President Trump is confronting three decades of financial influence from Wall Street’s multinational corporate lobbyists.
To the angst of Wall Street, POTUS Trump tweets the dynamic.
President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed.  President Trump has waited three decades for this moment.  Main Street U.S.A has waited for this moment.  This President and his team are entirely prepared for this battle…. Now we fight!

We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!
President Trump has been brutally consistent for more than three decades on his intent and purpose with the Chinese.  President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides nefarious motives behind the panda mask.
Additionally, while carrying out the objectives of the confrontation, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer and adviser Peter Navarro are well aware of Beijing’s duplicitous panda mask; POTUS Trump will never let them forget about it.
(more…)

On Thursday June 20, 2019, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Washington DC for a meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and democrat leadership.  After the political ideologues held the meeting, Trudeau and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tabled the Canadian ratification on the USMCA trade agreement.
It was obvious both groups of avowed leftists agreed to stall the USMCA for politics.
On August 13th White House emissary National Security Advisor John Bolton met with Britian’s Chancellor of Exchequer Sajid Javid, and the public became aware of efforts toward a six month post Brexit U.S-U.K trade agreement that would become effective on November 1st, 2019; immediately the day after Brexit was official.
On August 14th Speaker Nancy Pelosi quickly rushed a press release saying the House would never support that interim U.S-U.K trade agreement, using cover story of worry about Ireland/Northern Ireland peace accord.  Beyond all the talking points the baseline reason for Pelosi’s opposition is Democrats do not support Brexit.  Both the immediacy and the construct of the counter-maneuver by Pelosi were noted. [House in recess].
Immediately after the deal between President Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson became public; an intense international media effort began to push a narrative of the “U.S. heading to a recession”.  The group of corporate financial media interests; those who advance the interests of Wall Street and are adamantly adverse to a global trade reset; and the political opposition to Donald Trump, began using a recession talking point in unison.
(more…)

Early on Tuesday United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the modification of “next step” tariffs on Chinese products.  [See Here] “Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.”

President Trump responded to the delay/modification when questioned in New Jersey.  President Trump noted a “very productive” phone call between Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He of China:

[Transcript Segment] – […] Q Why did you make the decision on the tariffs, to delay the implementation of the tariffs?
THE PRESIDENT: Only to help, I think, a lot of different groups of people. And we had a very good talk yesterday with China — a very, very productive call. I think they want to do something. I think they’d like to do something dramatic. I was not sure whether or not they wanted to wait until a Democrat has a chance to get in. Hopefully that’s not going to happen because the economy would go to hell in a handbasket very fast.

(more…)

China needs to buy dollars to backstop their own currency (¥uan). When China trades with the U.S. they hold the return dollars as a peg against their weak currency.  Remove the flow of dollars (lessen exports) and they start to run out of strong pegged currency.
What is happening today is not as much direct devaluation by China; rather they are intentionally allowing their currency to drop in value, in an effort to lower export prices and off-set any tariffs from the U.S.   Simultaneously, Beijing is spending internally, burning cash, to keep their economy from weakening.  Their Yuan burn rate is greater than the influx of higher valued dollars needed to hold their position.
They cannot keep this position indefinitely.
First, here’s a solid interview with former CEO Gerald Storch on how the currency devaluation leads to lower prices for U.S. consumers.  Again, emphasizing the point that U.S. consumers are not paying for the tariffs against China.  Watch:

(more…)

With President Trump announcing an additional ten percent tariff on $300 billion of Chinese products, the Chamber of Commerce worm, Tom Donohue, comes out to oppose.
An interesting juxtaposition between two interviews.  The first with National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, and the counter point by CoC President Dohohue:

.
In the next interview Donohue surfaces… he has no choice.  Tom Donohue is paid tens of millions by the Wall Street multinationals to retain the current exploitative system of global trade.  Donohue has no influence over President Trump.
(more…)

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on trade negotiations with China, and how the EU is positioning to off-set global economic contraction.  Additionally, Kudlow discusses the aspects of the July jobs report overlooked by Wall Street pundits.

.
Do not overlook or underestimate the importance of the bigger picture behind the global economic forecasts and the collective alignment against U.S. President Donald Trump.  The ‘America First’ program is against their interests. There are trillions at stake.
Asia, primarily China, and the EU rely on common alignment with the multinationals who control Wall Street and have influenced U.S. trade and economic policy for 35 years.
(more…)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
(more…)