In September of 2015 we shared one of the overarching reasons why CTH would support Donald Trump for President. – SEE HERE –  This week, the sentiment behind that reasoning showed up in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum; we could not be more proud.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (Wednesday), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (Thursday) and U.S. President Donald Trump (Friday), collectively outlined how our new U.S. trade and economic policy would engage with the world.
Many media voices (narrative engineers) will, and have, continue to obfuscate, spin, and make predictive declarations about U.S. economic policies based on their ideological views of what President Trump could do, should do, or will do.  They will try to convince the  American electorate of POTUS Trump’s forward plans.  Most of what they declare is false.
In case you missed it, and if you want to know what the accurate compass heading is, skip the media and allow yourselves to rely on the direct message as delivered. You’ll avoid a great deal of heartburn.
The MAGA economic policy explanation begins with trade, Wilbur Ross:

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The MAGA economic policy explanation is enhanced by finance, Steven Mnuchin:
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Oh, we have no idea yet how big and consequential the synergy between all of President Trump’s economic policies are toward an almost unfathomable MAGAnomic result; but we’ll find out really soon, BIGLY.
The international community is just now beginning to recognize how intensely sequential the domestic MAGAnomic tax policy is when combined with the international America-First trade policy therein.

2018 will be the year when every international trade partner reassess their best financial interests; and with the tax outline codified into law, POTUS Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer are about to initiate the biggest multinational trade shift in the history of international economics.
Yes folks, I’m actually talking about that phase when we discover we are living within the orbit of: “almost too much winning”.   This is where we begin to recognize that 5%, 6% and even 7% GDP growth is easily attainable. Here’s how it works.
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Former Navy SEAL and current Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke delivers brief remarks at the Capitol Building in Utah.
Prior to President Trump signing a national monument proclamation, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke told a packed-house crowd the Antiquities Act, an obscure law that Barack Obama used to broaden federal monuments in Utah, ‘was never meant to prevent. It was meant to protect.’ “Our public land is for the public to use,” Zinke said.

[Via Daily Mail] … The Bears Ears and the Grand-Staircase Escalante national monuments span millions of acres in Utah and are among 27 national monuments that Trump ordered his Interior Secretary to review earlier this year.
The result, he said, is that ‘public lands will once again be for public use.’
As Trump signed a proclamation rolling back the Obama- and Clinton-era national monument designations, his audience briefly broke into a chant of ‘Four more years!’ (read more)

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President Trump’s MAGAnomic Main Street policy initiatives surround a very basic set of principles.  To add wealth to the middle class you: A.) increase wages, and B.) lower the cost of living.
Increasing wages is the long-term economic outcome from America-First business and corporate manufacturing policies (Secretary Wilbur Ross), in combination with fiscal policies (Secretary Mnuchin).   Subsequently, within his economic agenda, President Trump visibly engages an extraordinary amount of effort on both Commerce and Treasury.
However, there’s a part of the plan for reestablishing middle-class wealth that also comes from lowering the cost of living (high consumables).  That’s where EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt intersects with Ross and Mnuchin as Pruitt works to lower energy costs.

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Lowering energy costs has an exponential benefit to the overall economy.  Not only does it drive down the cost of domestic highly consumable products, but it also binds the building blocks of the manufacturing and production sector.  Lower energy costs offset higher wages on products manufactured for export and helps keep the U.S. competitive.
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An interesting press release from Ford Motor Co. operations in the U.K. as they announce financial incentives (additional $2,500) to trade in old vehicles for newer “cleaner” emission vehicles in the U.K.

(Via Fox Business) Ford (F) is offering car buyers in Britain a 2,000-pound ($2,570) incentive to trade in older vehicles for newer, less polluting models.
The offer announced Tuesday is available to new car buyers who trade in vehicles registered before Dec. 31, 2009. The cars will then be taken off the road and scrapped. (read more)

Pay attention to these types of stories within the auto sector.  Watch for these types of “incentives” to cross the Atlantic.  The incentives described here are wrapped around a point of cleaner emissions, ie. “climate friendly” etc.  However, as we have shared the financial branch of the auto sector is in trouble; these incentives appear to be a marketing ploy.
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Interestingly at the same time as a massive natural gas investment by Petronas collapses in Canada due to energy policy and economic conditions surrounding weak LNG prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration highlights that U.S. coal exports are roaring back.  Yes, elections have real economic consequences.
U.S. EIA data shows a gain of 60.3% so far this year in exports of both steam coal (used to generate electricity) and coking coal (metallurgical coal used for steel manufacturing) as a direct consequence of President Trump’s common sense energy policy.

Interestingly, the largest destinations for the growth in American coal export are the U.K. (+175%) and a doubling of tonnage to both France (+100%), and Asia (+100%).  High transport costs to ship coal to the EU are being offset by U.S. coal manufacturing efficiencies and improvements in mining productivity.
Additionally, while the actual end user for coal shipments to the EU are difficult to track, it is reasonably anticipated that some European countries are preparing to offset their reliance on Russian energy with storage of steam coal for next winters high demand season.
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Everything President Trump is presenting within the America-First economic plan is connected.  As President Trump and his economic and national security team confront N-Korea, via China’s enabling, the economic dynamic underlines the framework.

Always remember, each part of the message is connected to each other part of the policy.

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[Transcript] My fellow Americans, Here at the White House, we are dedicating the month of July to three of our favorite words – MADE IN AMERICA. For more than two centuries, those three beautiful words have been the world standard for quality, craftsmanship and excellence – and they still are today.

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U.S. Jobs Growth exceeded expectations in June by adding 222,000 jobs. Well beyond the anticipated 170,000 original forecast.   The government also revised up its estimate of job growth for April and May by a combined 47,000.

However, the economic dissonance is still evident within the fed analysis:

[The] cycle of limited wage gains and low prices has kept inflation in check, to the consternation of the Fed, which wants to see slightly higher inflation to justify its campaign to raise short-term rates. (link)

As we previously shared there’s a predictable inability of federal economists to understand what happens when executive administrative policy reverses course and establishes the benefit to Main Street, ie. the middle-class, over Wall Street. The feds cognitive dissonance is evidenced because modern economic theory cannot reconcile the space between two economies, Wall Street and Main Street.

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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin outline the past 48 hours of diplomatic discussions within the framework of the G20.

**Remember** as you read this transcript, e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g eventually boils down to economics and the seismic geopolitical shifts currently underway.  (See Bottom for Important Detail)

[Transcript] 7:18 P.M. CET – SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Hi, everybody. I just want to highlight very briefly, and then Secretary Tillerson will go on, and then afterwards we’ll both answer a few questions.

But President Trump has had a very, very significant few days. I think, as you know, we went to Poland on Wednesday. In Poland, he met with 12 different leaders. We had bilats with Croatia and with Poland, as well as 10 other leaders at the Three Seas Conference where we talked about energy — the importance of the energy markets, the importance of supplying independent energy, infrastructure and opportunities there. I think, as you know, the speech which was just incredibly well-received, is part of our “America First But America Not Alone.”

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Sharing only because CTH readers have a more thorough understanding than most; and we are entering a phase of extreme consequence.

Donald Trump doesn’t bluff.

Bluffing is for those who accept they may or may not win.  The outcome is based on an unpredictable response from the opponent.

In business or in life, go review the decades of available information and you will see that Donald Trump, now President Trump, doesn’t bluff.  It’s one of the reasons he so openly owns the downsides.  It’s also the reason he has never engaged in the stock market.

President Trump controls outcomes.

Donald Trump the person, doesn’t wait for an entity, ally or opponent to enter his orbit. He greets them at the perimeter.   Trump doesn’t sit with his back to the door, he positions to see all upon entrance.   Donald Trump doesn’t try to hide his interest, he’s quite open about any engagement he is focused upon.

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