National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the Sept. Jobs report, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports and the next stages of U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Kudlow notes job growth in the Household survey was a stunning 391,000 in September.
In the larger picture it is clear the Obama administration weaponized the institutions of government to target their political opposition. It is also increasingly clear a Hillary Clinton administration would have monetized the U.S. government.
President Obama’s team used the DOJ, CIA, FBI and IRS to target their opposition. The intelligence apparatus was weaponized; one small example that scratches the surface is the FBI/NSA database exploitation. Black files on DC politicians, private sector groups and individuals facilitating leverage, and we are still seeing the ramifications.
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When former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne recently discussed his role within the 2016 “political espionage” operations, he described the financial interests of political office; not coincidentally he also seems to have retreated into a safe-space.
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Last week U.S. economic data included the Labor Department’s report on initial filings for unemployment benefits, at historically low levels. Also last week, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. housing market (new homes and permits) was the strongest since 2007. Then came the Philadelphia Fed’s index of manufacturing business activity in September, more than doubling estimates as factories continue to expand. And if that wasn’t too much winning, the Commerce Department then announced August retail sales growth was double expectations. Main Street USA is very strong.
None of the economic data supports the almost month-long ‘recession narrative’ pushed by financial pundits and media narrative engineers; and next week the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth will be released. Attempting to retain the smallest remaining whiff of credibility, the Bloomberg economists now announce they’re cancelling the recession.
Yes, in a piece titled “Hold That Recession – U.S. Indicators are Trouncing Forecasts“, Bloomberg admits the economy doesn’t match their gloomy narrative:
(Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy is outperforming expectations by the most this year, offering a fresh rebuttal to last month’s resurgent recession fears fueled by the trade war and a manufacturing slump.
The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index has reached an 11-month high after four indicators released Thursday, including existing home sales and jobless claims, each surpassed expectations.
This is interesting. CNN’s Martin Savage traveled to the democrat stronghold in Minnesota to talk about the 2020 election. Much to the angst of the production unit they discover thousands of Minnesota voters have switched to support President Trump.
“Thousands of people switching and changing their politics?” ….Yes, why yes they are.
The two key issues highlighted in the interviews surround President Trump’s economic policies: “he’s the party for jobs”; and President Trump’s immigration policies: “Ilhan Omar is not popular here.” WATCH:
Michael Pillsbury traveled to Hong Kong recently to help explain the goals and objectives of President Trump’s U.S-China trade position. During an interview, Mr. Pillsbury warns Beijing interests not to interpret the current U.S. position as aggressive, because the dragon has yet to see the severe side to Trump’s position.
During an interview with the South China Morning Post, Pillsbury points out there are a great many more ways that President Trump is prepared to respond if the combative trade position from China remains hostile to any concessions. This first option was their best option. However, should they choose further trade conflict, President Trump will happily oblige.
CTH research on Trump’s outlook, vis-a-vis China, has led us to believe there is no upper limit to the economic weapons President Trump is willing to deploy; and considering that Pillsbury can be relied upon to deliver honest, accurate and deliberate remarks about the White House position, these warnings from a close advisor to the President should be weighted accordingly.
(South China Morning Post) – The United States is set to ramp up the pressure on China if a trade deal is not agreed soon, a key White House adviser said, adding that Washington has so far imposed only “low level tariffs” on the Asian giant.
Against the backdrop of Iranian attacks on Saudi oil fields, earlier today President Trump delivered remarks with Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khaifa of Bahrain in the oval office; and held an impromptu press conference. [Video and Transcript below]
This is funny in so many ways; especially for CTH readers who have a far better-than-ordinary understanding of the big picture Trump goals around China.
(1) CNBC tweeted this story last night (note the date/time). (2) It is written exclusively from the perspective of the Goldman Sachs analysts who represent the U.S. multinational position. (3) However, the article was actually written on May 12, 13, 2019.
What is funny about CNBC pushing this story, NOW, is how the claims within the CNBC story can be fact checked; and their predictions are, well, absurd (especially in hindsight). Keep in mind this was written in May, and tweeted last night for some reason:
(Via CNBC) “Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.
Iranian backed Houthi terrorists used ten drones to attack Saudi oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province. The attack caused Saudi Arabia to shut down half of their crude production facilities; repairs are underway.
White House – Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to offer his support for Saudi Arabia’s self-defense. The United States strongly condemns today’s attack on critical energy infrastructure. Violent actions against civilian areas and infrastructure vital to the global economy only deepen conflict and mistrust. The United States Government is monitoring the situation and remains committed to ensuring global oil markets are stable and well supplied. (read more)
The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year. These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.
The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)
A series of very strong internal economic evaluations today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) show the Main Street economy is perfectly positioned with maximum benefit to the U.S. middle-class.
First, despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, saying Trump tariffs on China would create massive inflation…. It Ain’t Happening! Overall year-over-year inflation is hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; that’s a low inflation rate. Rate has firmed up now with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate remains consistent. [See Below]
A couple of important points. First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative. Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector… Except ‘food at home’.
Which brings us to the second important point. Notice how food prices have very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent. That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:
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