Democrat president candidate Elizabeth Warren has made a campaign promise that is quite remarkable:

The consequences of such policy are not esoteric; they are very real and very serious.  Who would immediately benefit from Warren’s policy: Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela. Who would suffer, Americans.  Here’s how…
Within the first 24 hours of Elizabeth Warren’s presidency she is promising to dramatically raise the price of Oil and Natural Gas.  This will:

• Immediately hand Vladimir Putin hundreds of billions worth of enhanced Russian energy exports.  A windfall of economic growth that will mean Russian policy expansion globally.
• Support the regime of Venezuelan dictator Maduro who relies on oil production and pricing to keep his socialist government in place.
• Expand the influence of China; and increase the value of Beijing’s investments in Russian energy and 49% state in PDVSA (Venezuela).
• Immediately help the Iranian economy; enhance the stranglehold of power by the Mullah’s over the Iranian people; help fund terrorist actions globally, and specifically create terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel.
• Return U.S. policy and strategy back to a position of dependence on OPEC nations; so we can expect more U.S. military involvement in the middle-east (as above).

(more…)

The needle on the CTH winnamometer momentarily pegs ‘too much‘…
[Backstory Here] After quite widespread discussion on the Energy Star Thermostat Report, and the ridiculous recommendations to set thermostat to 82° when sleeping, the U.S. Department of Energy (Secretary Rick Perry) issued the following statement:

…”It is the position of DOE that Americans should set their thermostats to whatever temperature they choose.”..  (link)

(more…)

Fresh from the same Dept. of Energy and EPA that gave us: toilets that don’t flush; light bulbs that don’t light; dishwashers that don’t wash; plant-based fuel that burns like carrots; and paper straws that dissolve in liquid….  Now we get this:

[…] Energy Star, the federal program from the DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency, said the coolest you should keep your home is 78 degrees when you’re home.
When you’re at work or away, the program recommends setting it at 85 degrees. When you’re sleeping, Energy Star said to set the thermostat at 82 degrees. (link)

Setting the thermostat at 82° at night is well recognized grounds for divorce. I swear these administrative state progressives are going to have us force-fed sustainable algae cakes if this keeps up.
Some journalist-type person published these new cooling standards on twitter, and the responses are quite funny.
(more…)

White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss the status of the U.S-China trade negotiations and the reason for a USTR delay on some product tariffs.
Peter Navarro confirms what we noted from the office of USTR Robert Lighthizer yesterday.  On December 15th “the tariffs will go on.”   While the statement flies over the head of Stuart Varney, Navarro confirms the “next step” process that Lighthizer implied.

.
More below
(more…)

President Trump travels to Pittsburgh, PA, today to tour the Shell cracker plant and deliver remarks on “America’s Energy Dominance and Manufacturing Revival.” The anticipated start time is 2:10pm EST. [Update – Video Added]

(more…)

China needs to buy dollars to backstop their own currency (¥uan). When China trades with the U.S. they hold the return dollars as a peg against their weak currency.  Remove the flow of dollars (lessen exports) and they start to run out of strong pegged currency.
What is happening today is not as much direct devaluation by China; rather they are intentionally allowing their currency to drop in value, in an effort to lower export prices and off-set any tariffs from the U.S.   Simultaneously, Beijing is spending internally, burning cash, to keep their economy from weakening.  Their Yuan burn rate is greater than the influx of higher valued dollars needed to hold their position.
They cannot keep this position indefinitely.
First, here’s a solid interview with former CEO Gerald Storch on how the currency devaluation leads to lower prices for U.S. consumers.  Again, emphasizing the point that U.S. consumers are not paying for the tariffs against China.  Watch:

(more…)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
(more…)

Generation Z is absolutely the generation to absorb the truthfulness, purpose and benefit of President Donald John Trump.  Gen-Z are also some of his strongest supporters.
Earlier today President Donald Trump delivered rally-style remarks at the Turning Point USA’s Teen Student Action Summit.  President Trump discussed a number of topics including “The Squad,” Prime Minister-elect Boris Johnson’s victory in the UK and the corrupt Robert Mueller testifying before Congress. [Video and Transcript]

.
[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you.
AUDIENCE: USA! USA! USA!
THE PRESIDENT: So, let’s have a good time, right? (Applause.) Let’s have a good time.
(more…)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has presented the data for second quarter (Q2) year-over-year wage growth.  Average weekly wage growth is 3.7% year-over-year.

[Source, BLS release Q2 – Table 2]

With inflation (CPI) averaging 1.8% over the same period this means wages are strongly outpacing inflation and increasing the disposable income of U.S. workers.  This data-set, combined with positive consumer sentiment on job and economic security, bolsters the recent report showing “unanticipated” strength in retail sales.
The data is a reflection of Main Street strength. The job market is hot; wages are rising (3.7%) much faster than inflation (1.8%); the middle class has more disposable income. Hence, retail sales growth is strong at 3.8 percent.

An article from Reuters discussing the position of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is interesting.   Essentially the IMF is warning that “global economies” will contract by $455 billion next year due to the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S., China, the EU and to a lesser extent, Japan.  Yes Alice, there are hundreds of billions at stake.
There’s really no reason to doubt the amount estimated, though I think it’s on the short side, but the yearly value seems in line.  I have no doubt President Trump will cost the “Global Economy” $455 billion…. because that money will be transferring back to the America First economy. That’s what happens as MAGAnomics reverses the IMF trade (wealth distribution) model.

The IMF is correct in part (the effect), incorrect in part (the cause), and mostly hypocritical.  The Euro-minded IMF rails against the high value of the U.S. dollar, but simultaneously ignores the motives behind the intentional devaluation of currencies that are pegged against the dollar.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. dollar was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen and China’s yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.

(more…)