Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could not contain her glee as the U.S. economic collapse leads to negative oil prices.   Never let a crisis go to waste.

(more…)

Though the U.S. and Canada are not part of the “OPEC Plus” group, President Trump has  been leading negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia to broker a deal and stop their price war.  Today President Trump announces an agreement between the major petroleum exporting countries to curb oil production by approximately 10 million barrels per day:

Additionally, there was a loggerhead within the negotiations as Mexico did not want to cut their production by the requested amount of 400,000 barrels daily.  Mexico relies on oil as a large part of their economy. AMLO stated his economy could not withstand such a significant drop in state revenue.  Economic security is, after all, national security.

President Trump broke the OPEC+ stalemate by agreeing to decrease U.S. production by 300k/barrels allowing Mexico to drop a more manageable 100k/barrels.  Trump and AMLO reached an undisclosed agreement where Mexico will reimburse the U.S. later on.

I suspect the “reimbursement” will be more, well, strategically geopolitical than financial.  [*nudge-nudge*, *wink-wink*, *say-no-more/say-no-more*]  President Trump has an uncanny knack of collecting leverage for later, more strategic, purposes.  Just sayin’.

(more…)

There are many people, many voters, simply stunned at how the Democrats are trying to use the COVID-19 economic emergency to add unrelated ideological elements to the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act.

Senator Tom Cotton walks through some of the items the Democrats are demanding before they will allow economic relief to U.S. companies and workers. MUST WATCH:

(more…)

…there had to be a point where the value of the Wall St economy surpassed the value of the Main St economy… Part I Here

We now look forward, and consider the question: How would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) if the U.S. stock market was ever forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?

To first answer the “how” question, we must visit the “why” question. Why would the multinational financial underwriters want to reset their valuations?

Obviously, the global financial system does not act altruistically. What would motivate the global wealth valuation authority (various market investment indexes) to want, or need, a reset.

The answer to the “why” question might not be as challenging as it appears.

First, there has been a seismic shift in how the world looks at the economic exploitation of multinational systems, or globalism.  See Bernie Sanders?  See those yellow vests in France?  See what happened with the U.K. Brexit referendum?  See the shrinking EU influence?  See the open/public confrontation and push-back against China? See Trump? All examples are consequences of the rise of economic nationalism.

Secondly, the original Wall Street corporate motive (during decades of mergers and acquisitions) to shift product manufacturing to Southeast Asia (ASEAN nations) was driven by a lower cost of overall business, higher profit margins and greed.

As a direct outcome economic wealth was shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN nations, and particularly China. Low wages, low regulation, cheap operational costs, incentives and subsidies from Asia equals cheap TV’s, sneakers, furniture and durable goods.

Even with high fuel prices and overseas shipping costs, there was a big difference between U.S. and ASEAN manufacturing costs.  As hundreds of U.S. Wall Street multinationals chased profits the rust-belt was created.

(more…)

7:30pm – THE PRESIDENT participates in a working dinner with the President of the Federative Republic of Brazil

White House – President Donald J. Trump will meet President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, March 7, 2020. President Trump and President Bolsonaro will discuss opportunities to build a more prosperous, secure, and democratic world.

As leaders of the Hemisphere’s two largest economies, they will also discuss opportunities for restoring democracy in Venezuela, bringing peace to the Middle East, implementing pro-growth trade policies, and investing in infrastructure. The President will use this meeting as an opportunity to thank Brazil for its strong alliance with the United States. (link)

Economic Nationalism -vs- Economic Globalism

Despite the intense doomsayer predictions surrounding the ‘Coronavirus as an economic contagion’ narrative, the U.S. economy remains strong. When evaluating economic impacts for the USA it is important to remember 80 percent of all activity within the U.S. is internal.  We create and consume eighty percent of our own production.

The U.S. economy is unique in the amount of balance within it as compared to other industrial economies.  We are not dependent on exports to sustain our economy; and we are not dependent on any imports at the macro level.  Unlike China, Asia and Europe, and despite decades of efforts by globalists and multinationals, the U.S. generates and sustains a tremendous amount of our own economic prosperity.  First the January data:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reveals data today showing January wage growth .5%, personal income increases .6%, consumer spending at .2%; overall U.S. savings at $1.33 trillion, and low inflation at 1.7 percent year-over-year.  Solid and stable.
Both consumer spending (+.2 Jan) and inflation (1.6% Jan) were impacted by lower energy prices (-.7%) & mild weather in January.  Reuters spins the lower rate of spending growth to imply a contracting U.S. consumer; there is no data to support that narrative.
(more…)

The potential for supply chain disruption as a result of China dealing with the Coronavirus, and almost a complete shutdown of their manufacturing economy, is looming heavy upon Wall Street multinationals invested in China.
However, tangentially related, as a result of USMCA we are now seeing signs of shifted investment into North America and increases in forecasts for U.S. manufacturing.

(Via CNBC) […] Early in the week, New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for general business conditions posted a reading of 12.9, up 8 points from January and its best level since May. New orders surged to 22.1, the highest since September 2017, and shipments rose to 18.9, the best since November 2018.
On Thursday, the Philadelphia survey exploded 20 points higher to 36.7, the highest since February 2017. New orders hit their highest since May 2018. (more)

The Philadelphia FED tracks factory orders in eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware.  New orders in that region soared far higher than all expectations, reflecting a strong consumer-driven economy with ongoing purchases of durable goods.
(more…)

Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed the President of the Republic of Ecuador and Mrs. Rocio Gonzales De Moreno to the White House.
Ecuador is a key country for stability in central America.  A key topic of discussion between the two leaders will be Venezuela.  Ecuador is suffering firsthand the effects of Nicolas Maduro and his dictatorship in Venezuela with waves of economic migrants from Venezuela arriving through Colombia to Ecuador.   The refugee crisis represents a fiscal strain and also a security threat. There are 400,000 Venezuela refugees in Ecuador.

Counter-narcotics and a trade agreement are also a priority for this meeting. The United States and Ecuador are very close to a free trade agreement. USTR Robert Lighthizer has held a successful round-one negotiation for trade and investment with the Ecuadorian Commerce Ministry; and a second round is likely very soon.

.

Ecuador and the United States are working toward an energy and infrastructure framework agreement under America Crece.  Brazil is likely to join in March and they will join Panama, Chile, Argentina, Jamaica, Colombia, El Salvador, and hopefully Ecuador.

(more…)

Even before the Coronavirus surfaced in China there was lower manufacturing factory activity within the Chinese economy.  The necessary response within China to control the spread of the Coronavirus has been to shut down most commerce.  Factories, schools &  businesses throughout China are empty as various containment measures are underway.

The direct result of this response is a severe drop in economic activity.  Many analysts are speculating about how this cessation of production might impact supply chains that use Chinese component goods.  Obviously, with manufacturing facilities closed any downstream multinational company relying on those products may have supply issues as soon as existing inventories deplete.
There is a natural lag before the manufacturing void hits the consumer market; however, the financial markets are forward looking and they are already reflecting severe drops in stock prices, depending on the dependency/exposure of the company and/or sector.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese stock and commodity markets fell heavily on Monday as the death toll from a coronavirus epidemic in China rose to 361 and investors retreated into safe-haven assets in the first trading session after an extended Lunar New Year break.

(more…)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their first estimate of Q4 GDP growth today.  The BEA first estimate is 2.1 percent growth for the fourth quarter and 2.3 percent growth for the year. [Data Here]   The U.S. economy is now approximately $21.7 trillion.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ‘big picture’ outlook for the U.S. economy.  Strong employment, strong wage growth, strong consumer spending, and now the USMCA passage delivering the backdrop for domestic capital investment.   Good interview:

.
The headwinds by Boeing and the GM strike had some negative impact.  However, 2019 was dominated by Wall Street multinational investors taking the ‘wait-n-see’ position on the China/Asia -vs- USMCA trade dynamic (manufacturing investment) overall.
The USMCA passage gives certainty to North American manufacturing investment.  The China ‘phase-one’ agreement allows time for re-positioning, and/or time to extract profits from prior investment.  A corporate decision to manufacture in China is now based on an entirely different set of considerations than 24 months ago…. ‘phase-one’ buys time but doesn’t reduce the long-term risk.  North America is now the place for investment stability.
(more…)