British Members of Parliament will vote on Theresa May’s sketchy Brexit deal on Tuesday 11th of December. The U.K. House of Commons is set to debate the pact for five days. More than 100 members of parliament have indicated they could vote against the deal.
Nigel Farage appears on Fox News to discuss the deal that Theresa May has constructed.
Canadian media are reporting that General Motors plans to shut down operation in Oshawa, Canada. This is quite possibly an outcome that portends the sign of things to come…
CANADA – Numerous sources have told CTV Toronto that General Motors is planning to close all operations in Oshawa, Ont., affecting thousands of high-paying jobs.
The announcement is expected to be made on Monday, in the city of about 159,000 people located roughly 60 kilometres east of Toronto. Sources said they believe the Oshawa closures are part of a global restructuring. (read more)
GM holds considerable risk exposure within the current state of international trade and economics as it relates to the auto industry. As a result of the ongoing U.S-China trade confrontation, GM holds risk as a result of heavy investment in China. Add to that exposure the very significant financial impacts about to start for heavy manufacturing operations inside countries aligned with the Paris Climate Treaty, and the risk increases.
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They said he wouldn’t pull out of the Paris Climate Treaty, he did. They said he wouldn’t withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he did. They said he wouldn’t implement global Steel/Aluminum tariffs, he did. They said he wouldn’t dare withdraw from the G7 agreement in Canada, he did. They said he couldn’t get Canada to agree to a new NAFTA agreement, he did… the list is long.
One of the more consequential aspects to President Trump is he doesn’t bluff. Regardless of the scale of the assertion, every adversary is WELL AWARE he will do what he threatens if the situation he confronts doesn’t change. In this regard, no president, NO-ONE, has ever instilled such direct and focused fear once an adversarial issue, intentionally or unwittingly, falls into Trump’s sights. They know he will do this:
The truth is, regardless of opposition or public opinion; regardless of how the media will attack the decision; President Trump will factually shut down the U.S-Mexico border if that becomes the remaining best option to deal with the crisis and protect U.S. interests.
Mexico knows this too.
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Significant riots broke out today amid backlash to the economic policies of French President Emmanuel Macron. Fueled by resentment over a new gasoline tax, thousand of Parisians took to the streets to protest. [See Daily Mail Article Here]
(Via Reuters) […] The unrest is a dilemma for Macron who casts himself as a champion against climate change but has been derided as out of touch with common folk and is fighting a slump in popularity.
While the movement, which has no leader, began as a backlash against higher fuel prices, it has tapped into broader frustration at the sense of a squeeze on household spending power under Macron’s 18-month-old government.
In June 2018 President Trump instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to initiate a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods (Round #1). After two months of China refusing to negotiate renewed trade deals in good faith President Trump instructed Lighthizer to increase the tariff rate to 25% in August (Round #2). There is a third tranche of tariffs scheduled for January 1st, 2019.
With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the results are now measurable. A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf below), identified that approximately 4.5% of the tariff is being carried by American consumers. The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.
(Via Bloomberg) President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.
That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.
The most consequential long-term challenge being confronted by President Trump surrounds the influence of communist China, and their state-controlled economic conquest strategy.
To quantify the scale of the issues, in 2017 President Trump commissioned a Section 301 review by the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. In March 2018, Lighthizer delivered his report. That initial report became the baseline for the tariffs levied against Beijing. Yesterday, Lighthizer released an update of that ongoing review. The report is below:
[scribd id=393902698 key=key-kjNtouzB6djFEcPBapQB mode=scroll]
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Remember, the Chinese red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. Cunning is part of ‘The Art of War’.
President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.
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Documentary Filmmaker Ami Horowitz was embedded within the Central American migration force as they traveled through Mexico toward the U.S. southern border. Horowitz discusses his experience, and the reality of events within the group, during an interview this evening:
CTH has pointed, repeatedly, toward a very specific economic and financial dynamic because President Trump is uniquely focused on Main Street’s “real economy“.
Everything happening in/around the financial markets is very predictable when you focus on understanding the principles of Main Street MAGAnomics and how those basic principles diverge from Wall Street’s “paper economy” (currently weighted by tech stocks).
Everything is happening in a very predictable sequence. Few understand the MAGAnomic reset and what was predicted to happen in the space between disconnecting a Wall Street economic engine (globalism and multinationals) and restarting a Main Street economic engine (nationalism/America-First). In 2016 CTH explained where we would be today. With current Wall Street events, perhaps it is worthwhile remembering the CTH forecast.
President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; however, many have been visible for a long time – some even before the election victory in November ’16. What is happening within the financial markets should not be a surprise.
If we get too far in the weeds the larger picture is lost. Our CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.
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History is full of examples of what happens when illegal migration patterns are halted. We only need to look toward Tunisia, Libya and Morocco for recent examples. As the Central American migration horde begins to bottleneck within northern Mexico, it is likely President-elect Lopez-Obrador is beginning to evaluate those prior consequences.
President Trump took pro-active steps to harden the U.S. border through the deployment of U.S. military, and specifically through Corps of Engineers working in concert with U.S. Customs and Border Patrol to make illegal entry into the U.S. far more difficult.
Tijuana Mayor Juan Manuel Gastelum
As an outcome, the mass influx of Central American travelers is backing-up in Tijuana Mexico; and this mass collection of people -mostly military aged males- will almost certainly continue for the next six months. It did not take long for Tijuana Mayor Juan Manuel Gastelum to see the impact to his town. Local protests began within days of the first several thousand arriving. Things will likely not end well unless active steps are taken soon to turn around the migrants.
TIJUANA, Mexico — Hundreds of Tijuana residents, opposed to what they described as the “chaos” of the Central American migrant caravan, gathered at a prominent roundabout in Tijuana Sunday morning, before marching to a large, temporary shelter, which now holds about 2,400 migrants.
They chanted “Mexico! Mexico!” and “yes to migrants, no to invaders!” They sang the national anthem and waved Mexican flags and banners and signs, with messages urging the migrants to go home and urging the government to take action.
Newly installed Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (U-DC) appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss how the GOPe can best infiltrate the MAGA agenda.
Ms. Cheney outlines how the ‘Prescott-Bush-Stapleton’ Wall Street coalition will openly embrace all of the Trump agenda initiatives because the GOPe are able to hide behind the minority shield once again. [Thus, the dance of the decepticons]
The professionally republican no longer have the power to promote the MAGA agenda, thus the GOPe evolve back into fully embracing border security etc. It is predictable, albeit eye-opening for some, to watch them morph in real time.
