Stunning Canadian Trade Reversal Now Seems Increasingly Likely – Nervous Freeland/Trudeau Trying to Position for Political Face Saving…

During analysis of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement terms it became obvious that *if* Canada was going to join the pact they would have to almost completely acquiesce and reverse on their former positions.   It now is entirely plausible that just might happen.
When entering the meeting with U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke specifically about “Canadian workers”.  Justin from Canada has been very cautious in his word choices also speaking about “Canadian workers”.  As Freeland exited the first meeting with Lighthizer the reasoning for their collective word choice is becoming apparent.  Canada is preparing to take a knee, and they are positioning for the least amount of political damage possible.  WATCH the exit of first meeting:


.
Team Trump has positioned this perfectly. By using NAFTA section 2202, to construct a modification of the original 1993 agreement, Lighthizer is intending to send a 90-day notification letter to congress informing them the U.S. and Mexico have agreed to modifications of their bilateral trade agreement.
(more…)

GDP Second Quarter Estimate Revised Upward to 4.2%: Expanded Investment, Decreased Imports…

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis presented the second estimate for the second quarter GDP growth.  The second review increased the growth upward to 4.2%.

Within the data (full pdf release w/ tables) there are several interesting aspects.

(1) The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was mostly accounted for by investment in software. (2) Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Within goods, the downward revision was widespread, the largest contributor was petroleum.
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $122.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an upward revision of $0.4 billion.  (source data)

(more…)

President Trump Welcomes FIFA President to The White House….

Today President Trump welcomed FIFA President Gianni Infantino and U.S. Soccer President Carlos Cordeiro to the White House for a meeting and discussion of the 2026 World Cup.


.
[Transcript] Oval Office – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. We very much appreciate the fact that we have won a very important event: the World Cup in 2026. And we’ll be hosting it along with Mexico and Canada. And it’s a very special event. I think it’s probably certainly one of the biggest, and maybe the biggest sporting event in the world.
And soccer has come such a long way. Soccer is a game — I guess you call it “football.” But, over here, maybe at some point, they’ll change the name. I’m not sure, but we’ll see.
(more…)

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses Trade, Tariffs, NAFTA, China, EU and the U.S. Economy…

As Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada arrives in Washington DC to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is interviewed by CNBC.
Triple Play: Finalize NAFTA (or two bilats); fill in the details on previously agreed EU deal; then face-down red dragon (China).


.
Additionally, Mnuchin had some impromptu remarks (below):
(more…)

Bruce Ohr Testifies To Closed-Door Joint Session of Congress (Oversight and Judiciary)…

Today DOJ Official Bruce Ohr is testifying in a closed-door session to a joint House Oversight and Judiciary Committee.  The republican representatives asking questions were selected by Chairman Bob Goodlatte.  Democrats are relying on staff.
According to Kyle Cheney (Politico) Bruce Ohr has four lawyers with him, personal lawyers and lawyers representing the interests of the DOJ.  Initial indications are Ohr has provided testimony that directly conflicts with Fusion-GPS Glenn Simpson, and prior testimony from witness Lisa Page to the joint committee.


(more…)

U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer Explains U.S./Mexico Trade Agreement and China Trade Reset…

The corporate-owned, Wall Street-controlled, U.S. media are twisting, contorting, and in many cases hiding the consequential details of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement.
The reason for MSM disinformation campaign is quite simple: the deal helps the U.S. middle-class; helps both U.S. and Mexican workers; begins deconstructing the tentacles of Wall Street economic policy; and highlights a major success story for President Trump and the country in general.  The UniParty, Wall Street and the agenda of their purchased political class are being dismantled…. All of those interests are furious.
While it is still available, watch the 10 minutes of this report (and interview with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer) from 07:00 to 17:00 to get a generally good idea of how significant a day this is.  (prompted, just hit play)
https://youtu.be/Uen12x0jmXA?t=7m
(more…)

President Trump and First Lady Melania Welcome President Kenyatta of Kenya, and First Lady Kenyatta to White House…

Earlier today President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcomed Kenyan President Kenyatta and his wife to the White House.  Two videos and transcripts.

♦Oval Office Meeting:


.
[Transcript] Oval Office – 1:53 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. It’s great to have President Kenyatta of Kenya, and First Lady Kenyatta. Thank you very much for being here. It’s a great honor.
We have a tremendous relationship with Kenya. We have terrorism, a lot of trade, getting bigger and bigger all the time.
(more…)

Mexican Trade Team: Regardless of Canada The Deal Between the U.S. and Mexico Still Stands…

So much good news: WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The trade deal between the United States and Mexico will stand even if Canada does not come to an agreement with the Trump administration in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico’s foreign minister said on Monday.

“If for any reason the government of Canada and the United States do not reach an agreement, we already know that there will still be a deal between Mexico and the United States.”
~ Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray (link)

Remember those “private meetings” between Jesus Seade and Robert Lighthizer?
It is said: a picture is worth a thousand words.  Cue the audio visual:

The incoming Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador,(AMLO)’s representative is Jesus Seade. The outgoing Mexican President Pena Nieto’s representative is Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo.
Why the joy in Seade and the defeated Guajardo?  The answer is in the details:
One of President Trump’s principal objectives in the renegotiation is to ensure the agreement benefits American workers.  The United States and Mexico have agreed to a Labor chapter that brings labor obligations into the core of the agreement, makes them fully enforceable, and represents the strongest provisions of any trade agreement.

Key Achievement: Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining

The Labor chapter includes an Annex on Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining in Mexico, under which Mexico commits to specific legislative actions to provide for the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining.

(more…)

Preliminary Details of U.S./Mexico Trade Deal…

In direct relationship to the checkbook policy that impacts middle-class Americans the U.S./Mexico trade deal is the biggest win so far in Trump’s presidency.   There are such massive ramifications it could take days for anyone to comprehend how the granular details have such massive downstream consequences. The deal is incredibly complex.

At the 30,000 ft level, the deal positions Mexico to retain their current multinational investments, and through a series of sector-by-sector standards on origination the deal simultaneously closes the fatal NAFTA loophole.  The agreement makes an economic manufacturing partnership between the U.S. and Mexico; and for assembly products third parties will have to produce parts and origination material within the U.S. and Mexico.
U.S.T.R. Lighthizer has put some details forward:
♦The NAFTA Loophole closure is explained in Summary Form HERE; with emphasis on the Auto-Sector.  The key is a 75% part origination level for auto-assembly; and a 40-45% level for parts with a minimum $16/hr wage rate.  The source-origination rate (75%) is even higher than all previously forecast negotiation results.
Example of downstream consequences/benefits:  German auto-maker BMW recently built a $2 billion assembly plant in Mexico (almost complete).  Most of their core parts were coming from the EU (steel/aluminum casting components) and/or Asia (electronics).  Now the assembly plant will have to source 75% of the auto-parts from the U.S. and Mexico, with 45% of those parts from facilities paying $16/hr.  Result: BMW will need to modify their supply chain and build auto parts in the U.S. and Mexico.
(more…)