It’s not a bluff; it’s never a bluff…. He doesn’t bluff.  I’ve looked through the interviews, writing and granules of opponents describing hundreds of deals, and I cannot find a single person who ever said that Donald Trump was bluffing during any negotiations.

NYT cont. […] In recent days, officials from the Commerce Ministry, the police and other agencies have summoned exporters to ask about plans to lay off workers or shift supply chains to other countries.

With stocks slumping and the currency dropping 9 percent against the dollar since mid-April, censors have been deleting a torrent of criticism online, some of it directed at President Xi Jinping’s leadership.  State news outlets, by contrast, have sought to promote the official line, with the authorities restricting the use of the phrase “trade war.”

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Methinks Maria Bartiromo is the only media person who has caught on to “the secret“.
Within her wording and presentation today, inside this interview Fox News Maria Bartiromo hints toward her understanding of the Trump trade strategy as it pertains to Mexico, Canada and ::cough:: NAFTA ::cough::

 Nudge/Nudge – Elbow/Elbow – Wink/Wink – Say no more/Say no more!

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After the end of Round #6 (January 2018), it was obvious to POTUS Trump a NAFTA renegotiated deal was impossible.  In March, 2018, Team Trump stealthily began moving in a different direction.  In June,2018, Canada accidentally made the admission there were no ongoing talks between the U.S. and Canada.  The reasoning is simple yet stunning.
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Today U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced the second tranche of tariffs on Chinese imports (full list pdf below).
The 25% tariff mostly includes chemical compounds and material parts used in the manufacture of finished goods.

Washington, DC – The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) today released a list of approximately $16 billion worth of imports from China that will be subject to a 25 percent additional tariff as part of the U.S. response to China’s unfair trade practices related to the forced transfer of American technology and intellectual property.  This second tranche of additional tariffs under Section 301 follows the first tranche of tariffs on approximately $34 billion of imports from China, which went into effect on July 6.
The listcontains 279 of the original 284 tariff lines that were on a proposed list announced on June 15.  Changes to the proposed list were made after USTR and the interagency Section 301 Committee sought and received written comments and testimony during a two-day public hearing last month.

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As many have discussed, due to their volume requirements China cannot secure their supply chain for soybeans without purchasing U.S. soybean crops.   China can purchase soybeans from Brazil and Argentina; however, that only leads to Argentina increasing it’s soybean purchases from the U.S.  Amplifying this issue are current lower yields from South America in their soybean crops.

…“There is a risk that China will have to cut back its livestock production, implying higher prices on the domestic market.”…

(Reuters) – China may have to start buying U.S. soybeans again in coming weeks despite the trade war between the two countries as other regions cannot supply enough soybeans to meet China’s needs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
In July, China imposed import tariffs on a list of U.S. goods, including soybeans, as part of the trade dispute with the United States. China is the world’s largest soybean importer and has been seeking alternative supplies, especially in South America, where supplies available for export are down.

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Luke Rosiak, investigative reporter for The Daily Caller, revealed earlier tonight the name of the Chinese Spy employed by Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) for several decades. Russell Lowe began working with Dianne Feinstein in the 1970’s.   According to prior reporting by CBS Lowe passed along information gained from Feinstein to the Chinese government.

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(Via Daily Caller) […] Hankoryeh, a South Korean news publication, described Lowe in October 2017 as “a Chinese-American who spent 20 years as the aide to Dianne Feinstein.” Lowe visited the publication’s Seoul office at that time with former Democratic California Rep. Mike Honda, who left office in January 2017 after losing to progressive challenger Ro Khanna in 2016.
Feinstein has said that the spy had “no access to sensitive information,” and the former staffer was never prosecuted. (read more)
Additionally, internet research done by @almostjingo via Twitter reveals that Feinstein’s relationship to Russell Lowe goes back much further than her time in the U.S. Senate.
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The big-eared British guy wearing Linus’s T-Shirt does have a point; and asks the same question CTH has pondered before: Why do foreign governments need lobbyists?

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If there was a five-click dial available as a severity meter between the U.S. and China, something happened internally in Beijing, over the last 72 hours, because that dial just triggered movement from 3 to 4… Keep watching everything in the world of geopolitics with a mental 360° radar sweep looking for Chinese influence/interests.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.
Therefore, when we see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s state media on Monday lashed out at the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump in an usually direct attack, accusing him of “starring in his own carefully orchestrated street fighter-style deceitful drama”.
Trump’s wish for others to play along with his drama is “wishful thinking,” the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper said in an editorial.

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PHASE II – President Trump tweeted earlier today about the ongoing geopolitical contest that is priority #1 in defending U.S. interests and retaining our economic strength.
Do not be surprised if North Korea launches another provocative missile test soon. Watch China, not N.Korea. It’s Chairman Xi’s people in the DPRK who are taking action. Kim Jong-Un is an expendable proxy regime. The war is the U.S. -vs- China trade and economic confrontation. North Korea is the Potemkin backdrop for the Beijing puppeteer.

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As POTUS Trump and the U.S. trade team target ever increasing tariff pressure upon Beijing to change their behavior, keep a close eye on North Korea. Given the zero-sum approach of the Chinese; and their history of weaponizing the DPRK; we could expect to see Beijing roll out nuclear antagonism again in an overt effort to gain concessions.
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Larry Kudlow has fully immersed himself in MAGA.  The evolution from supporter to believer likely comes from the increase in proximity to President Trump and the resolve therein.   Good stuff.
In this segment the Chairman of the National Economic Council discusses the background of the U.S. -v- China trade reset and the long-term goal of open global markets with Zero tariffs, Zero non-trade barriers and Zero subsidies.

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Everyone has a role to play…
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President Trump has moved into Phase II of the U.S./China confrontation.  Part of that confrontation is to use the inherent weakness of the Chinese economy against them.  To understand the weakness is to understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy.  Here’s an outline of the economic battle-space we are witnessing.
People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy –manufacturing– they do have economic strength.
However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and discuss.
China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.
This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.
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