The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a statement out today that underlines why so many global forces are against President Trump: “there are trillions at stake”.

(Reuters) – An interim U.S.-China trade deal that rolls back some tariffs has the potential to improve the International Monetary Fund’s baseline economic forecasts, which show the two countries’ trade war slowing global growth significantly this year, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. (read more)

The baseline for the position of the IMF is the open secret amid global economic that few will ever discuss openly.  The U.S. economy generates approximately $21 trillion in total activity; roughly 20 percent of total global economic activity.
When the U.S. maintains a $500 billion per year trade deficit with China, essentially we are sending China trade dollars Beijing then uses to purchase industrial products from the EU an other nations.  Any reduction in the U.S-China deficit means China has less dollars to distribute; as an outcome the global economies have access to less U.S. wealth.
The process to retain U.S. dollars inside our own economy, President Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, is the heart of what most call the global economic slowdown.  As a result the position of the IMF is better when the U.S. maintains a deficit, and the position of the IMF is weakened by any process that stops that exfiltration of wealth.
(more…)

There is a lot of banter amid the punditry class of trade and finance watchers surrounding a statement from Chinese Commerce spokesman Gao Feng claiming that U.S. and China negotiators were discussing a ‘phased’ roll-back of U.S. tariffs as part of a trade deal. However, a note of very strong caution should be applied.

On its face the Beijing-central claim is essentially an accurate portrayal of a dynamic long discussed.  The tariffs were initially imposed to reset the outlook of China.  In any negotiation with China a concession of current status is a non-starter.  By natural disposition Beijing refuses to cede already won ground. This is their historic approach.
Therefore when engaging in any negotiations with China it is necessary to reset the baseline.  China has to naturally feel losses; the economic landscape must be changed around them without their participation; in order for for them to consider negotiation.
The punishing U.S. tariffs accomplished this objective; the Beijing baseline status has been changed.  The bamboo forest is significantly less than it was two years ago, and now China wants to recapture lost position. Their current status indicates exactly that dynamic.
(more…)

Steve Bannon appears on Fox News to discuss the ongoing impeachment issues with Maria Bartiromo.  Within the discussion Bannon highlights the larger position about how Trump’ America-First foreign policy is antithetical to the one-way interventionist model that ultimately provides U.S. politicians with a process to sell their office to the benefit of foreign governments.  The Biden-Ukraine issue is a direct example of that process.
Everything about POTUS Trump’s policy is against the business model that allows DC politicians to trade U.S. foreign policy for their own financial benefit.  Trillions at stake.
Bannon correctly points out that only public pressure is going to force change upon the swamp. President Trump is a vessel for a process to stop DC corruption; but the DC politicians themselves will never vote to diminish their own interests. That’s the issue with the republicans in the Senate during an impeachment trial.

.
On the Democrat race I agree with Bannon on 90% of his presentation, except I would replace “centrist” with Wall St (multinationals) and Hollywood. The Dem party is fueled by multinational interests and Hollywood support that is aligned with China and multinationals et al. With Biden falling they are trying Buttigieg; if that doesn’t work, they’ll need someone to hold/protect their interests.
(more…)

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the latest excellent jobs report and the overall strength of the U.S. economy.
Additional points of interest discussed are the U.S-China trade negotiations, the status of the internal Beijing communist control over their economy and the ongoing issues with the EU.  Lots of good MAGAnomic news.

(more…)

Leftists love to trot out Christine Lagarde as the pontificating elite to defend their multinational interests.  Recently the former IMF leader was elected to take control of the European Central Bank.   As a direct result, Ms. Lagarde is now taking an adverse position toward a strong U.S. economy and decrying the ‘America-First’ policies of President Trump that have removed the tentacles of global financial control.
If you follow trade, finance and the interests of the multinationals, this is actually quite funny.  In this first brief interview segment Ms. Lagarde, has the elitist audacity to warn President Trump that lowering U.S. interest rates defeats the agenda of the EU.  She doesn’t put it in those terms, but watch and we’ll explain:

.
Notice how Lagarde magnanimously claims that lowering interest rates when the U.S. economy is strong, and the U.S. unemployment rate is at historic lows, could lead to rising prices inside the U.S.  Too damned funny; how very kind of the EU to be worried about U.S. consumers… (pro tip: they ain’t).
What she’s really worried about is the dynamic that President Trump has created that is crushing the globalists. Let’s expand.
(more…)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a plan, at least the collective ideology behind her has a plan.  Her recent trip to Jordan and Afghanistan are part of that plan; everything is essentially connected.    Pelosi will do whatever is needed to hamper the U.S. economy in an effort to weaken President Trump’s relection bid.  Blocking the USMCA is part of that aspect.
The visit to Jordan and Afghanistan was purposeful ground work in preparing to seed the narrative that President Trump’s withdrawal from mid-east conflict is evidence of dangerous foreign policy.  Again, just like the USMCA stall, the larger goal is to weaken the President in advance of 2020.  Everything is connected.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to be realizing the Democrat’s hatred for ‘America-First’, which weakens their personal financial position, is their driving ideology.

(more…)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses the negotiations with China and the possibility of agreement on ‘Phase-1’ aspects prior to December.  Secretary Ross is not necessarily optimistic the agreement will be made based on Beijing’s outlook toward the enforcement mechanisms and forced compliance. Ross also discusses Brexit from the position of mutual benefit.
On the subject of USMCA Secretary Ross outlines the only reason for Democrats to hold back ratification is Pelosi’s politics. [Only 20 legislative days left in 2019] Mr. Ross discusses the options if Pelosi refuses to take up ratification.  On this subject the commerce secretary does not sound optimistic.

(more…)

Office for Trade and Manufacturing Policy’s Peter Navarro discusses the China trade negotiations, the UAW General Motors strike, U.S. tariffs in European goods, and USMCA.
On the U.S-China ‘Phase-1’ construct the key issue is going to be the enforcement mechanism to ensure any agreement has strength.  On U.S. placing tariffs on the EU due to the Airbus ruling Navarro reminds everyone the WTO ruling does not permit the EU to place tariffs on U.S. productions.  On USMCA everyone avoids telling the truth; that is  Nancy Pelosi is waiting to see what happens in the Canadian election in three days.  If Trudeau wins re-election, the USMCA will likely be scrapped (tabled) by Pelosi.

.
{*Note* We are holding-back on BREXIT-EU deal outlines until we complete reading the majority of the 2,000+ pages of UK-EU legal agreement construct.}
(more…)

Commerce Secretary delivered a speech to the Federalist Society today as he explained U.S. trade policy under President Trump and the long-term goals and objectives.

(more…)

Ohio Representative Jim Jordan reacts to Hunter Biden’s interview, and then outlines how Speaker Pelosi and Adam Schiff have structured the ‘impeachment inquiry’ to hide testimony that supports the administration and leak testimony to frame a narrative.

(more…)