Man-o-man, this is some high-stakes poker playing, and it’s the United States economy on the table.   Mitch McConnell is going to put S.3548 The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the CARES Act, back on the senate floor at 9:45am ET tomorrow, 15 minutes after the stock market starts collapsing.

[Read Bill Here]

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Sweet Baby Jesus… I can’t remember ever seeing anything like this.  A $20 trillion U.S. economy, and tens-of-millions of American jobs and businesses on the line….  And McConnell is calling Pelosi’s bluff.    P.U.B.L.I.C.L.Y!

Talk about seriously high stakes politics.   Yikes.  McConnell is going to make every democrat senator vote again to close debate and advance the bill; putting them on record for negotiating a deal and then walking away from the deal they assembled.

I would imagine Senator McConnell has talked to President Trump about this….

Steve Bannon appears on Fox News with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the U.S. response to the coronavirus.   Bannon advocates for a military style shut-down of the U.S. to shut down everything now and get through the crisis as quickly as possible.

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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called-in to Maria Bartiromo earlier today to discuss the overall financial approach of the Trump administration to the COVID-19 impacts.

Mnuchin has been working closely with House and Senate political leadership to structure the financial flow needed for particular sectors and workers inside the Main St economy.  The target date for legislation directing the financial relief is early next week.

The underlying economy is strong. The treasury response is targeted to those who need short-term relief. Short-term economic indicators are no longer valid.

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A very big picture discussion requires a considerable baseline.

The stock market is not the U.S. economy; the stock market is an investment instrument that determines valuations of economic activity company by company. The valuation is considerably arbitrary, based on the determinations of the arbiters (investors). This is empirically true.

However, that said, how would the multinational underwriters, the multinational financial systems, reset all transactional tables (the bookkeeping systems underneath the valuation) …if the U.S. stock market was every forced to re-value economic nationalism over multinational globalism?    Enter “Coronavirus”.

Four years ago CTH first explained a new way to look at the U.S. economic system and how Main Street was/is disconnected from Wall Street.  We presented a metaphor to explain. Before going deeper into the discussion of tomorrow; and at the request of several people who now accept the era of “deglobalization” is upon us,  I first present that prior reference & then will use this as the baseline to describe what could come next.

There is a key phrase at the fulcrum of everything past:

…there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

What we are going to outline in part II is the possibility what happens when this natural truism is reversed.  The objective is to answer: How, specifically would Wall Street reset its evaluative systems if Main Street once again emerged as the priority?

But first, a baseline revisit is needed.

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Earlier today New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo complains to the media about only getting $35 million in initial emergency funding for Coronavirus impacts.  WATCH:

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Last night CTH did our first review of the $8.3 billion COVID-19 appropriation as it passed through congress.  It is loaded with pork spending and foreign aid.  The bill was $7.8 billion at the beginning of the day and ended with $8.3 billion on final passage.
The emergency Coronavirus appropriation passed 96-1 in the Senate. The Senator voting against the bill was Rand Paul of Kentucky.
The foreign aid section is roughly $3 billion of the spending.  Senator Rand Paul proposed an amendment to rescind unobligated balances of current foreign aid appropriations because so much new money is being spent on this bill.  His amendment was defeated.
Here’s the breakdown:
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The 2020 Davos economic conference will be a little more important to watch this year (as it was in 2017) due to the completed U.S. Trade Agreements (S Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and China) and the predicted focus for the Trump administration to pivot from Asia to the EU and U.K. for the next critical phase of the ‘America-First’ global trade reset.

As a result of the recent U.K. election, pending Brexit, a favorable $7.5 billion WTO ruling and USTR Lighthizer’s new $2.4 billion EU targeted tariff program, the administration has significant advantages going into a trade discussion with the EU in 2020.
Team USA has the world’s strongest economy, the largest market, legally bolstered tariff authority and a quiver full of powerful economic arrows.
Meanwhile Team EU has: (1) the UK leaving; (2) severe drops in German industrial manufacturing; (3) a shrinking French economy; (4) yellow-vests in the streets; and (5) demands for greater economic autonomy from many key member states.
Overlay Germany, France and Italy large economy challenges such as: their promise to meet NATO obligations – and their attachment to the strangling Paris Climate Treaty, and the EU’s collective economic position is precarious at best.

WHITE HOUSE – Today, President Donald J. Trump announced the Presidential Delegation that will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, from January 20 to January 24, 2020.

The Honorable Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury, will lead the delegation.

Members of the Presidential Delegation:

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Tonight President Trump will deliver remarks at Joint Base Andrews and sign the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020.  Included in the bill are twelve weeks of paid parental leave, initiation funds for the United States Space Force and Southern border wall funding. President Trump will then fly to Florida for the holidays.
Anticipated start time 7:30pm ET.
WH Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream – Fox Business Livestream

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As expected the House of Representatives has passed the USMCA trade agreement with an overwhelming 385 to 41 vote.  Pelosi’s political objective was to use USMCA to water down the toxic political environment created by her impeachment fiasco:

Also as expected, after passing the USMCA the House went into immediate recess for the Christmas holiday without any movement on the fraudulent impeachment articles.
In the time-frame between today and the return to the next congressional session in January, House lawyers will attempt to use the passage of the articles to support their background court cases: (1) McGahn forced deposition; (2) access to Mueller 6(e) grand jury information; and (3) possible access to Trump family financial records.
[PREDICTION for bookmark: Upon return in January Speaker Pelosi will refuse to allow impeached President Trump to deliver a State of the Union address in the House.]
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Earlier today President Trump sent a warning tweet about Apple possibly incurring tariffs on their products if they continue a plan for manufacturing in China.  Later in the day the president answered direct questions about those possible tariffs.
Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First, there’s a very clear picture; however, most pundits and trade analysts will likely ignore the message.

Subtle as a brick through a window…. yet it’s amazing how many people can’t see it.
Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class that the current objective for Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer is to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.  That’s a big tell.
After several phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team doesn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.  In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize markets.
It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China.  Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears with Charles Payne to discuss the latest economic data and the Q2 GDP release.  Within the interview Secretary Ross explains the information behind the data; the status of the USMCA and Pelosi’s motives to delay ratification; the baseline for the U.S-China trade discussions, and the position of the administration to advance the economic interests of the U.S. above all others.

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