One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.  Within obscure data, raw and unfiltered up-stream activity, it is entirely possible to see over the horizon.

But newly engaged people also think I’m nuts; so therefore it is also fun conversation at parties to stand above the esoteric academic fray, smile and outline actual forecasts –very specific forecasts– that most would never consider possible from a linear perspective.

People pay a boat-load of money for proprietary ownership of very accurate forecasts.  However, CTH would rather do it open source and break the historic grip of the financial control class.

If you’ll permit me a little Funday indulgence; the other reason to share predictable consequences is so patriotic readers can take a pro-active and empowering position in their own decision-making.  That motive was one of the reasons for previously sharing:

[…]  Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

• Regional areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on state finances, and the retail and high-end service industry will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas/middle-class areas, with affordable housing and reasonable infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  However, those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it. (link)

Now check out this headline from AP today discussing Connecticut:

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Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney appears on Disgrace the Nation to discuss the ongoing ObamaCare reform efforts against the House passage of the repeal and replace legislation.

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Health and Human Service Secretary Tom Price appears on very fake news CNN with Jake Tapper to discuss ongoing ObamaCare legislative reform and replacement efforts.

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Earlier today President Donald Trump signed HR244 into law.  The provisional spending bill that funds government through September 30th, the end of fiscal year 2017.

There has been a great deal of anxiety amid punditry about the spending outline itself, and the spending priorities as determined by both houses of congress.  Some of the criticism is warranted, most is not.

The basic principle the entire professional political class seem to overlook is the reasoning for the CR itself.  Congress has been unable to fulfill its budgetary obligation since 2007.

In fact, the last federal budget (fiscal year ’08) was signed into law in September of 2007.  By the conclusion of this CR it will have been an entire decade without a federal budget.

Perspective: ♦ Over half of all elected federal politicians have never held elected office in any year with a federal budget in place.  ♦ Almost two-thirds of Republicans in congress have never known a federal budget for a single day in office.

THAT FACT should be the target of the ire from all Americans, particularly conservatives.  However, hypocritically, it is not.

For some reason ankle-biters, antagonists, and crony constitutional punditry amid the various CONservative outlets, choose instead to focus their criticism toward the first president in our lifetime to actually deliver on conservative policy, conservative values and expressed policy objectives/outcomes that benefit all common sense Americans.

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The federal April jobs report shows a gain of 211,000 new jobs amid a 2.5% year-over-year growth in wages, bringing the latest national unemployment rate to 4.4% or what the federal economists call the ‘cusp’ of full employment.  They are, well, ‘positioning’ an advanced narrative.

DATA – •Construction payrolls rose by 5,000; •manufacturing payrolls increased by 6,000; •leisure and hospitality payrolls jumped by 55,000; •professional and business services payrolls rose by 39,000; •healthcare and social assistance employment increased by 36,800; •retail payrolls gained 6,300.

That’s the official interpretation of what the jobs gains mean.  However, to reconcile the “slacking” the quantifying economists are now halving the customary growth figure used for inbound newly economically matriculated workers.

Historically it takes 150k new monthly jobs to retain employment rates as static; therefore any job growth beyond 150k must lower the unemployment rate. The fed is now using 70-100k as the new labor market number to retain stasis.

Bloomberg – […] Removed from the weather-related distortions of the previous three months, the April figures indicate solid trends in employment, while measures of those left behind in the recovery — favored by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and President Donald Trump alike — are at or near pre-recession levels.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross sat down for a comprehensive discussion on trade, education and commerce policies with Bloomberg’s David Gura at the Bloomberg Breakaway Summit in New York.

In his direct and often humorous style Wilburine describes some of the current economic trade challenges and presents an outline of U.S. forward policy.  Secretary Ross spends quite a bit of time explaining how the NAFTA trade agreement is obsolescent in the modern era and how many of the products and industries in 2017 are not part of the agreement.

Wilburine also discusses how the business community is interacting with the Trump administration to deliver on specific aspects to the larger economic policy goals. A very good and substantive discussion segment:

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Additionally, COMMERCE – Earlier today, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin held a phone conversation with Vice Premier Wang Yang of China. Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Vice Premier Wang discussed bilateral issues related to the U.S.- China Comprehensive Dialogue and the overall economic and trade relationship between the two countries. (link)

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Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney did an excellent job today pushing back against the UniParty and their slobbering media water-carriers today.

Mulvaney was unexpected by the White House Press Corps who were apoplectic at the conclusion of the briefing:

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The media response was priceless:

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Thought Experiment:  Imagine the 2009/2010 Tea Party uprising with an allied President Trump in the White House.  That’s where we are going...

For the past week we’ve been outlining the ROOT ISSUE within the DC swamp: ♦Why congress isn’t providing Trump policy legislation; ♦what impact that is having; and ♦what appears to be surfacing as a solution.

The truthfulness behind any larger discussion is backed-up by research: ♦The history of DC lobbyists admitting they control congress; ♦who created this broken system, and why the larger media avoids discussion of it. [Although Rush Limbaugh did partially report]

When research is on point, and when you find yourself directly over the target, naturally occurring current events become almost eerily predictable.

Within Part II (“the current impact”) we shared:

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the White House’s recently unveiled tax plan in a wide-ranging interview with CNBC’s David Faber.

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As previously mentioned, part of President Trump’s overall economic policy is a restructuring of U.S. banks and financial organizations to remove the structural issues within globalist leverage benefiting Wall street via multinational banks.  Trump has proposed a modern 21st Century Glass-Steagall law of sorts.

Today President Trump talked to a group of leaders from local and community banks:

[Transcript] 12:01 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT:  Wow, look at that.  Oh boy, oh boy.  They love Dodd-Frank, don’t they?  They love it.  (Laughter.)  Thank you very much.  I appreciate it.  Very nice.  Sit down, please.  Beautiful hats.  (Laughter.)

Well, thanks, Mike Pence.  And Mike has been so great, and he’s on your side, believe me.  He’s on everybody’s side.

It’s a pleasure to welcome the community bankers to the White House today.  I want to, in particular, thank Cam Fine.  Cam Fine.  Stand up, Cam Fine.  Pretty well-known guy, too, huh?  (Applause.)  Congratulations, Cam, for leading the Independent Community Bankers of America.  And thank you for all being here today.  Very, very special.

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