Here’s a weird question.  I’ve been looking at this all day.  Something sketchy is afoot.  I waited specifically for CBS to report so that I could share an exact comparison.

In 2017 total holiday sales were reported as follows:

2017 CBS – […] They had a lot of company across the country. Total retail sales this holiday season added up to a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year. (link)

In 2018 total holiday sales were reported as follows:

2018 WSJ and CBS – […]  Overall, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, according to Mastercard. The figures suggest a stock-market swoon and partial government shutdown haven’t curbed consumer confidence and spending. (link)

See the issue?..
In all 2017 financial media reports $598 billion was the holiday spending total.  And in all of 2018 financial media reports $850 billion was the total holiday spending.
That’s a difference of $252 billion more spent in 2018.  An increase of 42%.

A forty-two percent increase !!

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According to a report in Bloomberg News the U.S. is sending a trade negotiation team to Beijing on January 7th, 2019.  If accurate this would be the first face-to-face delegation since President Trump and Chairman Xi outlined the structure for strategic trade discussions during the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires.

(Via Bloomberg) A U.S. government delegation will travel to Beijing in the week of Jan. 7 to hold trade talks with Chinese officials, two people familiar with the matter said.
Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish will lead the Trump administration’s team, which will also include Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David Malpass, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Neither the USTR nor Treasury responded to requests for comment. (more)

When President Trump outlined the preliminary terms for negotiations between the U.S. and China, U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was assigned the lead position for the contacts.   Abassador Lighthizer has been very firm in pointing out the 90-day window for discussions, prior to enhanced tariff action, was not going to change.  The deadline is March 1st, 2019, for a principle agreement, or the next phase of tariffs is triggered.
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Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett appears on Fox Business news to discuss the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes on the Main Street economy and the state of the Wall Street stocks.
The key metric is to accept what’s happening around us.  Fed rate hikes are hurting Wall Street (investment class).  However, Fed activity is not yet impacting Main Street.  This is because the two economic engines (Wall St. -vs- Main St.) are so far apart.

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Part Two of this interview (and expanded review) is below:
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As CTH anticipated the first tabulated holiday sales report via Mastercard® shows the results of a very strong consumer confidence level.  The first report highlights a very strong 5.1% increase in holiday purchases:

“Wall Street is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, while Mr. and Mrs. Main Street are happy with their jobs, enjoying their best wage increases in a decade”…
~ Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners

(Via Wall Street Journal)  Shoppers delivered the strongest holiday sales increase for U.S. retailers in six years, according to early data.

Total U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 5.1% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 from a year earlier, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online and in-store spending with all forms of payment. Overall, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, according to Mastercard.

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The announcement of The United States drawing down troop deployment from Northern Syria – with the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia sending in replacements to bolster the region, highlights a much larger backstory.

President Obama’s February ’09 Cairo speech began a sequence of events that led to what was called the “Arab Spring“; factually an extremist uprising.  Bolstered by the resulting chaos the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt behind Mohammed Morsi.
However, a majority of the Egyptian people rejected President Morsi’s sharia governance, and asked a well respected General Fattah al-Sisi to step in.  Accepting the request of a desperate people Sisi removed Morsi, disbanded the Muslim Brotherhood and went on to win a landslide election in 2014.   The leadership of the Brotherhood fled to Qatar.
President Obama and his policy team was not happy with this outcome.  Obama supported Morsi, not al-Sisi.  Another person who was not happy, was Turkish President Recep Erdogan, who also supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Undeterred, and understanding the need for urgency, Egyptian President al-Sisi then began a long process of confronting extremism.  Sisi destroyed the Hamas terror tunnels on the border between Egypt and Israel; and, despite the anxiety expressed by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Sisi brokered an interim peace agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Israelis.
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Jobs, jobs, jobs.  Stunning jobs data provided today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [see here] all 50 states had significant job gains through November 2018.  Not a single state had a negative job growth number.
Total 2018 growth in U.S. jobs through November is:  2,617,000 new jobs.
Eighteen states had significant jobless rate decreases from a year earlier; and with the national unemployment rate at 3.7 percent 32 states (and DC) had little or no change.

(Data Link)

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Brilliant.

Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and the DC Decepticons are concerned about the Kurdish groups in Syria as the President Trump withdraws U.S. forces.  The concern stems from a possibility of Turkey taking hostile action toward our Kurdish allies.  However, a new report from the region highlights Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is sending his forces to replace the U.S. troops.

SAUDI ARABIA – Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sent military forces to areas controlled by the Kurdish YPG group in north-east Syria, Turkey’s Yenisafak newspaper reported.

The paper said the forces will be stationed with US-led coalition troops and will support its tasks with huge military enforcements as well as heavy and light weapons.

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The House of Representatives voted tonight to include $5.7 billion for border security in a spending bill after President Trump warned them he would veto the spending bill without it.  Despite prior claims by Democrats the bill passed 217-185.

The bill now goes to the senate where Mitch McConnell, the GOP Decepticon caucus, and Chuck Schumer previously refused to consider border security.  If Schumer, McConnell and the Decepticons reject the bill it will likely lead to a partial government shutdown.

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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the strength of the U.S. economy, and the apparent disconnect between Main Street’s growth and Wall Street’s multinational risk exposure.  [Pro Tip: go back and read the dimensional shift]
Secretary Mnuchin (correctly) stays away from discussing the federal reserve and highlights the strength of Main Street.   CTH readers well understand what is driving this dynamic; and it will continue until 30-years of divergence is corrected, and parity achieved.

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Traditional economic principles have revolved around the Macro and Micro with interventionist influences driven by GDP (Gross Domestic Product, or total economic output), interest rates, inflation rates and federally controlled monetary policy designed to steer the broad economic outcomes.
Additionally, in large measure, the various data points which underline Macro principles have been viewed as two dimensional. As the X-Axis goes thus, the Y-Axis responds accordingly… and so it goes…. and so it has historically gone.  This ain’t that.
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A few days ago many critics were concerned over an announced pledge of U.S. State Department funding ($4.8 billion) for security and economic development in Mexico. However, CTH noted the approach was likely not what it seemed.
Those who followed the USMCA construct closely noted that U.S. President Trump (through Jared Kushner) and Mexican President Lopez-Obrador (through Jesus Seade) were doing something much bigger than a trade agreement; they were structuring an entirely new U.S-Mexico economic alliance.
With increased investment in central America by the Chinese government; and with Venezuela in a state of vulnerability to becoming a proxy therein; and with Brazil taking a more nationalistic approach; a completely new partnership which focused heavily on domestic security and economics was taking shape between the U.S. and Mexico. Throughout 2017 and 2018 the U.S. media was oblivious to it.
Then, two days ago, the U.S. State Department made public the principles of an economic alliance between the United States and Mexico. [See Here] The outline should be familiar: Economic Security is National Security.
Today Department of Homeland Security chief Kirstjen Nielsen told lawmakers that migrants heading to the southwest border to seek asylum in the United States will have to wait in Mexico until their claims are processed, under an agreement between the two countries:

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