President Trump participates in a roundtable discussion with various industry executives on the plan for reopening the American economy. Anticipated start time 4:00pm ET.

White House Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream – RSBN Livestream

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow argues the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over and the U.S. economy is getting ready to reopen. Kudlow outlines the scale of the current economic relief package how any further discussion should focus on policies to launch the economic recovery.

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advanced estimate and the result is a 4.8% decline in economic activity. [BEA Here]

The revised fourth quarter GDP shows the economy was growing at 2.1 percent prior to the COVID-19 shutdown.  The severity of the change in GDP reflects a severe drop in consumer spending, essentially bringing the economy to a halt in March as the entire nation went into lock-down.  As the BEA explains:

The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending.

The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. (more)

Digging down into the details the data shows what we all have seen.  There is some specific data that is noteworthy in the tables.

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Sometimes a special message needs a special messenger.  Today, amid the anxiety and stress created by the coronavirus pandemic, a very special messenger named Michael visited the White House and delivered a very important message to everyone:

…”At Bitty and Beaus we like to use the phrase ‘not broken’. That means me and all my important co-workers are not broken, and we have lots to offer. I know the great country of the United States isn’t broken either.”…   ~ Michael

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Indeed, this too shall pass.

Thank you Michael; thank you.

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President Donald Trump delivers remarks from the East Room of the White House on the Paycheck Protection Program, part of coronavirus relief package known as the CARES Act, that is set up to help small businesses continue to operate and pay employees during the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

UPDATE: Video and Transcript Added

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everyone. This is a great honor. And I see you have social distance on your mind and that’s a very good thing. Jovita, congratulations. Tremendous job you’re doing.

I want to thank everyone for being at the White House — a very special house, a very special place. No matter where you go in the world, they love the White House. And being here in the East Room of the White House in particular, where so many important functions have taken place over the years.

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Holy cow, Illinois is asking for a $40 billion bailout with $10 billion targeted to fund their pension liabilities?  These blue spenders are nuts.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appears on Fox Business to discuss the ongoing financial programs intended to support U.S. workers and small business.  About mid-way through the interview Mnuchin sounds quite serious when he says anyone who falsely filed the borrowers certification on the PPP program will be held criminally liable. WATCH:

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The U.S. Department of Justice, Attorney General Bill Barr, has issued a memo (pdf here) citing a needed balance between COVID-19 mitigation efforts and U.S. civil rights under the constitution.  Notably AG Barr identifies both “religious freedom”, and “undue interference with the national economy” within his memo.

[…] “Many policies that would be unthinkable in regular times have become commonplace in recent weeks, and we do not want to unduly interfere with the important efforts of state and local officials to protect the public. But the Constitution is not suspended in times of crisis. We must therefore be vigilant to ensure its protections are preserved, at the same time that the public is protected” (citation)

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It is being reported the San Francisco Bay area will remain in a state of forced lock-down with an extension of the stay-at-home orders throughout May.  Considering this is the home of Speaker Nancy Pelosi,… this decision highlights an expectation that the federal government will bail out local and state governments.

We anticipated this type of approach where Blue states & Blue regions will keep their economies closed as long as possible to inflict maximum political damage.  Simply, if San Francisco were not confident they will gain a federal bailout they would not be keeping their economic system closed for another entire month.

CALIFORNIA – Public health officials in Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties say they will extend the shelter-in-place orders through May.

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Kevin Hassett, senior advisor to President Trump, says we’re going to see unemployment rates similar to what we saw during the Great Depression, but the White House has a plan for an economic comeback.  As Hasset notes: due to various relief programs the overall worker income is still consistent, but outputs from income are non-existent.

In this interview with CNBC Hassett estimates the current unemployment rate at 16 to 17 percent; & the likely result of the second quarter GDP around -20 to -30 percent. Hassett notes the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has several challenges as they attempt to quantify economic activity during the shut-down.  However, those are stunning numbers.

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Fox News host Chris Wallace is to Fox News as George Stephanopoulos is to ABC.  Both members of the allied uniparty system function for the same purpose.  Once you see the strings on the marionette is impossible to go back to a time when you did not see them. Wallace’s job is to manipulate his audience while giving the impression of questioning.

In today’s interview with Secretary Mnuchin the insufferable Wallace is cheering for as much economic damage as possible and questioning anyone who might dare have a more fact-based approach.  At one point Wallace even calls the CBO “independent experts”.

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The biggest of all the bigger financial issues around the economic shut-down will ultimately come down to a battle this spring/summer over a massive bailout for state governments to replace their missing revenue.  States like California, New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut & New York have been struggling with financial issues for years.

“You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.”  ~ Rahm Emanuel

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