If the U.S. were to exit NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), the price you pay for most foodstuff at the grocery store would drop 10% in the first quarter and likely drop 20% or more by the end of the first year. Here’s why:

Approximately a decade ago the U.S. Dept of Agriculture stopped using U.S. consumer food prices within the reported measures of inflation. The food sector joined the ranks of fuel and energy prices in no longer being measured to track core inflation and backdrop Fed monetary policy. Not coincidentally this was simultaneous to U.S. consumers seeing massive inflation in the same highly consumable sector.

There are massive international corporate and financial interests who are inherently at risk from President Trump’s “America-First” economic and trade platform. Believe it or not, President Trump is up against an entire world economic establishment.

When you understand how trade works in the modern era you will understand why the agents within the system are so adamantly opposed to U.S. President Trump.

The biggest lie in modern economics, willingly spread and maintained by corporate media, is that a system of global markets still exists.

It doesn’t.

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U.S. Steel and Aluminum tariffs are just one component of a larger economic issue. Bringing back U.S. production on those sectors is vital to the infrastructure of a manufacturing and production economy. Modern Wall Street is centered on multinational interests within economic globalism. Weaken the trade grip of the multinational corporations and their financial manipulation upon the U.S. economy, and Wall Street will drop… this is not difficult to predict.  This is also necessary.

Last week President Trump spoke candidly with the White House assembly of U.S. Governors about the critical need to re-evaluate their position(s) on trade.  President Trump’s remarks were direct, but also nuanced toward the audience.  A few hours later the White House announced President Trump had promoted his economic guru, Peter Navarro to be Assistant to The President.

Mr. Navarro’s job is to counter the false narrative from the GOPe, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street crowd. Cue the audio visual demonstration (two video segments):

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Segment #2 below:

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For those who follow closely the strongest argument against the U.S. trade and economic policies of the past 30 years has been the outcome. We don’t need to guess what the pro’s and con’s of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce position is, we are living them. We don’t need to guess what the Wall Street economy delivers, we are living through them.

For the past 30 years the U.S. has lost jobs, wages have been depressed, and the middle-class has suffered through the implementation of economic trade policy that destroyed the U.S. manufacturing base. None of this is in question – the results stare us in the face – yet the Wall Street and multinational corporate club(s) [U.S. CoC chief among them] now demand a continuance of the same.

The economic and trade policies of the Trump administration are adverse to those interests. As we have shared for several years, candidate Trump, now President Trump is an existential threat to the multinational program.

All opposition to President Trump is about the underlying financial and economic policy of America-First. There are trillions at stake.

Those who have read here will note the media are generally oblivious to America-First economic policies; this includes the financial media.

As an example today they are trying to figure out how Steel/Aluminum tariffs would work. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated clearly exactly how the Steel and Aluminum policy would be carried out; yet for the financial media they claim to be clueless. The level of intellectual dishonesty is off-the-charts.

The truth is, well, two points: •Point #1 – the media don’t want to know; they are committed to selling the prior policy. •Point #2 – there’s almost no-one within the professional economic punditry class who have ever given thought to what happens during the space between two fundamentally different economic policies as executed.

What happens in the space between taking the U.S. economy off the path of ‘service-driven-globalism’, and reasserting the economy back to a balanced ‘production-based national economy’? None of the key participants within the larger discussion have ever contemplated this dynamic.

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As U.S. Trade Officials meet with auto executives surrounding ongoing NAFTA sector negotiations, U.S.T.R. Ambassador Robert Lighthizer appears on Fox News to discuss ongoing trade initiatives with Laura Ingraham.

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It’s challenging to discuss the basic ‘fatal flaw’ within a modern NAFTA in a short discussion segment; however, Ambassador Lighthizer, Secretary Ross and the newly positioned Peter Navarro have a strong position for withdrawal.

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Earlier today President Trump spoke candidly with the White House assembly of U.S. Governors about the critical need to re-evaluate their position(s) on trade.  President Trump’s remarks were direct, but also remarkably nuanced toward the audience.  However, if you follow Trump’s process, you’ll note the familiar indications.

Next, far less subtle and yet following along the same predictable process, the Wall Street Journal is reporting President Trump now promoting his economic guru Peter Navarro to be Assistant to The President.   Navarro is a brilliant and strategic trade hawk who has a long track record of supporting the same trade principles as Donald Trump.

A NAFTA decision/announcement looms. ♦ As expected and predicted, a recent phone call by Mexican President Pena Nieto to POTUS Trump didn’t end well. ♦ USTR Lighthizer blasted Canada at the end of round six NAFTA renegotiation. ♦  Placing Pete Navarro inside the circle puts him directly in the right place to speak on behalf of President Trump for an upcoming announcement.   All of these NAFTA exit indicators are great news.

Our wolverine team is growing.  Now we have Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Asst. To POTUS Peter Navarro, all assembled.

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Just ‘twitches’ – We explained yesterday how Moon Jae-in relates to the NAFTA exit (SEE HERE).  We showed last year how President Trump uses specific emissaries, only the most trustworthy, for critical geopolitical messaging in advance of big action. Well…

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump, a senior White House adviser, will meet South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday as part of a weekend trip to lead the U.S. delegation to the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics. (read more)

A senior administration official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said Ivanka Trump will dine with Moon at the Blue House in Seoul on Friday night. She has no plans to meet with North Korean officials, the official said.

White House Delegation Announcement HERE.

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Consider this a kick-off to my official NAFTA watch.  Readers will note my earlier spidey-sense prediction of NAFTA withdrawal announcement in/around the end of February through March.   I cannot see a delay in an announcement extending beyond March 2018.  Ergo, CTH is fine-tuning the radar to watch closely.

The fatal flaw within NAFTA has not been addressed.  Neither Canada nor Mexico has even slightly indicated a willingness to engage talks over the fatal flaw.

Exactly the opposite happened earlier this month when Canada signed up to the TPP deal.

The agreement has yet to be ratified by Canadian Parliament, and many are nervous, but it will likely get done.

The NAFTA decision will be the biggest political and economic decision in the Trump administration so far, and the corporate GOPe response is anticipated to be beyond ugly.  Additionally, it would be intellectually dishonest not to accept there are very specific interests watching these pages as part of their proactive strategy. (Hi, Tom)

That said, if you were Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and you noted the specificity of the current trade-policy planetary positions; and you were overlaying the preparatory action taken by Justin from Canada; and you understand there are factually hundreds of billions in play; you would be a fool not to go past past Economy Minister Ildefonso Guarjardo and directly engage the ultimate decision-maker, U.S. President Donald Trump, out of an urgent need to evaluate the survivability of your economic surroundings.  It would be imprudent not to prepare yourself:

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Yesterday President Trump invited the media to keep their cameras on during a round-table discussion on trade.  He did this for a reason.  President Trump wanted the American voters to watch Republican politicians demand that he stop trying to bring manufacturing jobs to the United States.

In essence, Trump doing what Trump does best, played the role of Toto and pulled back the curtain on the Republican anti-American corporate business agenda.  The republicans in attendance never paused to reflect upon the sunlight or the reason for their specific invitations. They are comfortable back-room deals and POTUS Toto relaxed them perfectly.

One by one the Republicans took-the-bait and fully exposed themselves.  Lamar Alexander, Mike Lee, Pat Toomey and Roy Blout all took turns telling POTUS to quit trying to save American high-wage jobs, drop the national economic view and just accept multinational corporate globalism.

The subsequent full-throated establishment display stands as one of the greatest plays of the Trump administration to date. However, it was Republican Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin who really went the full distance:

[Transcript] […] In Wisconsin, a big manufacturing state, in seven years I have not visited one manufacturer that could hire enough people. That was certainly my experience in the last 20, 25 years. For a host of reasons, we tell our kids you have to get a four-year degree. We pay people not to work. So we do need to be concerned about, in such a tight labor market, do we have enough workers in manufacturing.

So my final point is, it makes no sense for me to try and bring back high labor-content manufacturing to America. We need to do the value added things. And so I would just say, proceed with real caution there.  (more)

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Earlier today one of the more consequential meetings took place between President Trump and his economic team -vs- the professional UniParty apparatus consisting of multinational corporate-purchased Democrats and Republicans.

The policy discussion isn’t sexy or headline making from the perspective of the U.S. media; however, the resulting outcomes will have more of a bearing on you and your family than any other economic policy conflict in this administration.

On one side we have President Trump and a very focused policy and trade group containing Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer. On the other side the corporate UniParty apparatus consisting of U.S. Chamber of Commerce Republicans and Democrats.

An encapsulated view would be Main Street (Trump) -vs- Wall Street (UniParty).

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This is THE battle. This is the “trillions at stake“. Everything else is chaff and countermeasures; a war is being waged around this financial issue. Everything within the current conflict is downstream from the economic argument around these issues.

This is the epicenter of the entire institutional conflict against President Trump. This is why THE SWAMP, through all its various affiliated and indulgent enterprises – including the intelligence apparatus, are waging a battle against the disruption that is President Trump.

It is the money.

Period.

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Apparently a group of GOP Senators are proposing an outline (pdf below) for the Republican senatorial legislation for immigration reform.  A first review of the seven  senators outlined in the group shows a majority-minded tilt toward the CoC position(s), with a dose of Chuck Grassley sprinkled in to make their GOPe mix palatable.

With the 1000mg bitter pill of a massive budget bill still blocking our trachea, upon first glance we note an ideological similarity here to the failed Obamacare repeal construct (amid the big picture analysis). The backdrop is a faux-deadline of March 5th where POTUS asked congress to solve the DACA issue. Here’s the press release:

WASHINGTON D.C. -A group of U.S. Senators tomorrow will introduce a common-sense proposal aimed at providing legal certainty for undocumented children brought to the United States by their parents and preventing others from falling into the same legal limbo in the future.

Their proposal, which mirrors the White House framework announced by President Trump, provides a generous opportunity for approximately 1.8 million DACA or DACA-eligible immigrants to earn citizenship while strengthening our nation’s border security and enforcement measures to reduce illegal immigration.

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