Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis presented the second estimate for the second quarter GDP growth. The second review increased the growth upward to 4.2%.
Within the data (full pdf release w/ tables) there are several interesting aspects.
(1) The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was mostly accounted for by investment in software. (2) Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Within goods, the downward revision was widespread, the largest contributor was petroleum.
In addition to presenting revised estimates for the second quarter, today’s release presents revised estimates of first-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance. Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $122.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an upward revision of $0.4 billion. (source data)
A few months ago we highlighted a discussion between Ezra Levant and Manny Montenegrino when they first began to notice the direction of Trump strategy and the duplicitous political agenda of Justin from Canada. After the announcement of the U.S./Mexico trade agreement yesterday, Levant and Montenegrino revisit the discussion.
While both Canadians seem to overlook the importance of President-elect Lopez-Obrador, Jesus Seade, and the mutually beneficial alignment with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer, their perspective on the motives of Justin from Canada and President Trump circle close to the target.
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Meanwhile Chrystia from Canada has now arrived in Washington DC: (more…)
As Foreign Minister Chrystia from Canada arrives in Washington DC to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is interviewed by CNBC.
Triple Play: Finalize NAFTA (or two bilats); fill in the details on previously agreed EU deal; then face-down red dragon (China).
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Additionally, Mnuchin had some impromptu remarks (below): (more…)
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox News to discuss the U.S-Mexico trade agreement and the unlikely possibility of Canada to join the agreement. In order for Canada to join the agreement they would need to remove protectionist tariffs (dairy); remove subsidies to several sectors (lumber, aeronautics); and in large measure open their economy to free, fair and reciprocal trade.
Additionally, The Wall Street corporations who have exploited NAFTA for strategic financial advantage are unhappy with the removal of the NAFTA loopholes.
The corporate-owned, Wall Street-controlled, U.S. media are twisting, contorting, and in many cases hiding the consequential details of the U.S-Mexico trade agreement.
The reason for MSM disinformation campaign is quite simple: the deal helps the U.S. middle-class; helps both U.S. and Mexican workers; begins deconstructing the tentacles of Wall Street economic policy; and highlights a major success story for President Trump and the country in general. The UniParty, Wall Street and the agenda of their purchased political class are being dismantled…. All of those interests are furious.
While it is still available, watch the 10 minutes of this report (and interview with U.S.T.R. Lighthizer) from 07:00 to 17:00 to get a generally good idea of how significant a day this is. (prompted, just hit play)
https://youtu.be/Uen12x0jmXA?t=7m (more…)
So much good news:WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The trade deal between the United States and Mexico will stand even if Canada does not come to an agreement with the Trump administration in the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico’s foreign minister said on Monday.
“If for any reason the government of Canada and the United States do not reach an agreement, we already know that there will still be a deal between Mexico and the United States.”
~ Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray (link)
Remember those “private meetings” between Jesus Seade and Robert Lighthizer?
It is said: a picture is worth a thousand words. Cue the audio visual:
The incoming Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador,(AMLO)’s representative is Jesus Seade. The outgoing Mexican President Pena Nieto’s representative is Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo.
Why the joy in Seade and the defeated Guajardo? The answer is inthe details:
One of President Trump’s principal objectives in the renegotiation is to ensure the agreement benefits American workers. The United States and Mexico have agreed to a Labor chapter that brings labor obligations into the core of the agreement, makes them fully enforceable, and represents the strongest provisions of any trade agreement.
Key Achievement: Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining
The Labor chapter includes an Annex on Worker Representation in Collective Bargaining in Mexico, under which Mexico commits to specific legislative actions to provide for the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining.
In direct relationship to the checkbook policy that impacts middle-class Americans the U.S./Mexico trade deal is the biggest win so far in Trump’s presidency. There are such massive ramifications it could take days for anyone to comprehend how the granular details have such massive downstream consequences. The deal is incredibly complex.
At the 30,000 ft level, the deal positions Mexico to retain their current multinational investments, and through a series of sector-by-sector standards on origination the deal simultaneously closes the fatal NAFTA loophole. The agreement makes an economic manufacturing partnership between the U.S. and Mexico; and for assembly products third parties will have to produce parts and origination material within the U.S. and Mexico.
U.S.T.R. Lighthizer has put some details forward:
♦The NAFTA Loophole closure is explained in Summary Form HERE; with emphasis on the Auto-Sector. The key is a 75% part origination level for auto-assembly; and a 40-45% level for parts with a minimum $16/hr wage rate. The source-origination rate (75%) is even higher than all previously forecast negotiation results.
Example of downstream consequences/benefits: German auto-maker BMW recently built a $2 billion assembly plant in Mexico (almost complete). Most of their core parts were coming from the EU (steel/aluminum casting components) and/or Asia (electronics). Now the assembly plant will have to source 75% of the auto-parts from the U.S. and Mexico, with 45% of those parts from facilities paying $16/hr. Result: BMW will need to modify their supply chain and build auto parts in the U.S. and Mexico. (more…)
Promises made, promises kept. The CTH community is in a unique position to understand exactly what has taken place today as President Donald Trump announces the termination of NAFTA and simultaneously announces a bilateral trade agreement has been made between the U.S. and Mexico. This is exactly what CTH predicted. Most, not all, but most of the media are absolutely clueless.
In an Oval Office announcement today President Trump put outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on his speaker phone as the press watched in the Oval Office. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo, and the key figure for incoming Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Jesus Seade was present for the announcement.
CTH will have much more on the details of the trade agreement. This is the most comprehensive and complex trade agreement in U.S. history. However, in the interim here’s the full video of the announcement (including nuance). ENJOY:
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[Transcript] Oval Office – 11:09 A.M. EDT – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Hello everybody. It’s a big day for trade, a big day for our country. A lot of people thought we’d never get here because we all negotiate tough. We do, and so does Mexico. And this is a tremendous thing.
This has to do — they used to call it NAFTA. We’re going to call it the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, and we’ll get rid of the name NAFTA. It has a bad connotation because the United States was hurt very badly by NAFTA for many years. And now it’s a really good deal for both countries, and we look very much forward to it. (more…)
Remember the ju-ju bones?… Well…. The U.S. Main Street economic engine is almost firing on all cylinders as brick-and-mortar retailers drop their historic complaints of e-commerce impacting their sales and foot-traffic, and instead begin seeing the real life consequences from a resurgent American middle-class.
Target CEO Brian Cornell: “There’s no doubt that, like others, we’re currently benefiting from a very strong consumer environment — perhaps the strongest I’ve seen in my career.” “We’re seeing a great consumer response … unprecedented traffic. As we go back and look, we’ve never seen traffic growth like this.” (link)
The growth in retail foot-traffic is a critical KPI for the economy. Despite economic and business school theory (pushed over the past 20 years), everything of consequence is dependent on a thriving American middle-class; blue and white collar. (more…)
Earlier today U.S. President Donald Trump highlighted an optimistic outlook toward the framework for a U.S./Mexico trade deal. Not unanticipated:
We continue to remind everyone to focus on U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer and AMLO’s guy, Jesus Seade; everyone else is multinational corporate media chaff and countermeasures.
“We are already looking at all the issues. We might close this, not in a matter of hours, but these days. We still have next week,” Jesus Seade, designated chief negotiator of Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, told reporters.
It is important to note that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has twice asked Jesus Seade to remain AFTER hours when all other trade officials have concluded discussions. Closed-door conversations between Lighthizer and Seade; and no-one else. [Refer back to the two Trump baselines again]
Now, clear the MSM fog from all perspectives; and instead look directly at the discussion framework expressed by Jesus Seade, AMLO’s guy:
[…] Asked by reporters outside the offices of the U.S. Trade Representative in Washington if Canada would then join the talks, [Seade] said: “I don’t see any reason why they have to come after we finish. It’s up to (U.S. Trade Representative Robert) Lighthizer to organize his time.”
The Mexican delegation — and sources familiar with the closed-door negotiations — have said previously Canada would return to the table as soon as the other two resolved their bilateral issues — maybe even this week. Seade’s comments seemed to indicate otherwise. (LINK)
