In 2015 CTH outlined how candidate Donald Trump’s proposals were in-line with those who had long argued for a return of “economic nationalism”.  We also outlined when those proposals (now policy) are implemented, Fed action would be essentially irrelevant.

The Federal Reserve is pegged to the Wall Street Economy.  President Trump’s policies are pegged to the Main Street Economy.  There is a disconnect; a new dimension in U.S. economics; and very few people understand what happens in this space between them.
Thirty-five years ago Fed monetary policy impacted the U.S. economy directly because almost all activity (durable good manufacturing) was within our borders.  The natural dynamic of inflation could be influenced by the Fed.  Rate changes could offset inflation and also enhance domestic investment etc.
However, as time progressed that manufacturing activity -the basic underpinning of middle-class jobs, wages etc- shifted overseas.  When monetary policy became controlled by multinationals (Wall Street influencers purchasing politicians), capital investment moved to generate purely higher profits.  Businesses, specifically manufacturing, went abroad.  As a consequence the determination of prices, ie ‘inflation’, was no longer influenced by the Fed because the actual economic activity was/is outside the U.S. borders.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary data yesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.
There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.
As the Wall Street Journal put it:
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It was only a matter of time before someone explained how the Chinese advisors to Chairman Xi Jinping are using President Trump’s inability to hold the coup plotters accountable as evidence they can wait out the President.
This is the crossover, where a lack of accountability for “Spygate” now begins to negatively influence the geopolitical, economic and strategic position of President Trump.  However, there’s an upside to this dynamic….
In several interviews the president has noted his preference to keep the DOJ and FBI issues at a distance and deferred action to others. The economic reset is President Trump’s #1 priority.  If Trump identifies the lack of DOJ and FBI accountability as an impediment to the economic program, he may become much more engaged.

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SHANGHAI—Plodding progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week is partly the result of a new tactic from Beijing, which increasingly thinks waiting may produce a more-favorable agreement.

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Good interview between Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo and former White House trade official Clete Willems.  Essentially Willems confirms the current outlook of the Trump administration that a deal with China is not likely in the short-term; however, Willems is optimistic of the probability in the longer term (as China realizes consequences).

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Earlier today President Trump sent a warning tweet about Apple possibly incurring tariffs on their products if they continue a plan for manufacturing in China.  Later in the day the president answered direct questions about those possible tariffs.
Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross was very insightful when he also spoke of the current U.S. perspective toward the U.S-China trade negotiation.  If you have followed the basic road-map of America-First, there’s a very clear picture; however, most pundits and trade analysts will likely ignore the message.

Subtle as a brick through a window…. yet it’s amazing how many people can’t see it.
Secretary Ross warned the professional investment class that the current objective for Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer is to find out if Beijing is willing to re-engage from the starting point where they left-off when talks collapsed.  That’s a big tell.
After several phone calls and staff contacts if the U.S. team doesn’t know the answer to that question, well, there’s almost zero likelihood of any optimistic outlook.  In essence, the only value within the current engagement is financial ‘optics’ to stabilize markets.
It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China.  Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.
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CNBC pundits use the drop in exports to attack the GDP result as Larry Kudlow appears to discuss the overall picture. The knuckleheaded pundits point to tariffs as the reason for the drop in exports without even contemplating (Mamet Principle) the devaluation and subsidies from foreign countries that have driven up the value of the dollar.
While currency manipulation/devaluing (EU and China) drops the prices of their export goods, their devaluation drives up the value of the dollar.  The first impact from a high valued dollar is that it causes our export products to increase in price.  This drops our exports, and can be a drag on the GDP growth rate.  Pundits are intentionally obtuse.

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My advice to President Trump: “Tariff the bastards; all of them” !!
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Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears with Charles Payne to discuss the latest economic data and the Q2 GDP release.  Within the interview Secretary Ross explains the information behind the data; the status of the USMCA and Pelosi’s motives to delay ratification; the baseline for the U.S-China trade discussions, and the position of the administration to advance the economic interests of the U.S. above all others.

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The second quarter Gross Domestic Product growth result will be released tomorrow.  The Q2 GDP growth rate is historically the worst quarter of the year.  A growth rate higher than 1.5 percent will be a strong indicator the U.S. economy remains on track for a cumulative year of around three percent.

In the latest economic releases the orders for durable goods “unexpectedly” jumped in June [2 percent], again indicating the overall strength of the U.S. economy and strong consumer purchasing.  Additionally the trade in goods deficit “unexpectedly” declined 1.2 percent in June as more manufacturers “surprisingly” shift production back to the U.S, and domestic consumers are “unexpectedly” loyal to USA.
Every economic indicator is positive, and each series of released data shows the U.S. economy is increasingly strong.  Despite the empirical data, media reporting on economic forecasts continue to convey a negative slant disconnected from what is happening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods surged in June, suggesting some improvement in business investment, but economic growth is still expected to have slowed sharply in the second quarter amid weaker exports and a smaller inventory build.

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As the week begins, it’s worthwhile reemphasizing the value of President Trump, and how the focused, albeit at times pragmatic, policy is received by the larger U.S. electorate.   This interview is representative of the silent majority voice; some silent no more:

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The underlying reality behind these words from a Michigan voter is exactly why the media need to have redoubled their efforts of opposition. President Trump is simply succeeding, despite the enormous scale of manufactured political opposition.
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Excellent interview by Charles Payne as White House Manufacturing Policy Advisor Peter Navarro outlines how the strategic road map of MAGAnomics is converging.  If you want to see the future, listen to how Navarro outlines what’s coming.
The six MAGAnomic components to pay attention to include: ♦changes to the Universal Postal Union (UPU); ♦HUD Opportunity Zones; ♦America First raw material policy for infrastructure; ♦retail sales strength; ♦the current status of the U.S-China negotiations; and ♦the USMCA ratification.

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♦The UPU was one of those archaic policy issues set-up with good intentions, and then maintained by ‘stupid’ politicians well after it should have been renegotiated.  It’s good to hear that mess is coming to an end in October.
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