Lots of dragon-dancing with a very hungry panda.

President Trump, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gathered with their Chinese counterparts in the Oval Office for a lengthy  announcement of “phase-one” of a U.S-China trade agreement.  Vice-Premier Liu He leads the Chinese delegation.  [No point sheet on USTR website yet]  According to the presser:

Phase One has reached ‘agreement in principle‘, and includes: Intellectual Property issues; Banking and Financial Services to include currency devaluation; and major agricultural purchases ($50 billion +).  There will be several phases, and each phase will have an individually tailored enforcement mechanism. [Note: this approach sounds similar to the ‘six sectors and stages’ USTR Lighthizer discussed in March 2019.]
The Phase One agreement details still have to be put on paper over the next five to six weeks.  The U.S. and China are hopeful to have ‘phase one‘ complete by December. In exchange for current AG purchase commitments, and as an act of good faith while phase-one is finalized, the U.S. will suspend the tariff rate increases scheduled to take effect on October 15th. The tariff increase from 25% to 30% has been ‘suspended‘.
The scheduled U.S. tariff increases for December are still planned; however, they will be assessed as part of the ongoing negotiations.  Meanwhile, touchy issues like tech company Hauwei, 5G, telecom and the Chinese firms on the U.S. blocked “entity list” (ie. trade ‘blacklist’) are not part of the discussions.  Those issues fall under U.S. National Security and will not be part of any ongoing trade negotiations.
[Video Below]
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Despite Wall Street headline writers trying to frame an opposite reality, President Trump has no disposition toward making a trade deal with China.  Conversely, China has no intention of changing the closed and state-controlled structure of their economy.  That’s the reality amid a trade dance that is going absolutely no-where.
This quote is priceless: “We can add the Diplomatic war to the Financial war, Currency war and Technology war, that we already have,” John Browning, managing director at brokerage BANDS Financial in Shanghai, said in a note to investors.

The Chinese position is thus:

REUTERS […] The U.S. demand that the Chinese Communist Party fundamentally change how it directs China’s massive economy to shift to a more Western model of free-market capitalism is irrational and misguided, a Chinese diplomat in the United States said.
“What we achieved during the past few decades shows that our system is good for development in China,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

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Today at 3:30pm ET, President Trump will sign the U.S-Japan trade agreement and U.S-Japan digital trade agreement.  This represents “stage-one” (agriculture, industrial tariffs, digital trade) of a complex U.S-Japan trade agreement negotiated by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi. (Details)
[Update – Video and Transcript Added]

[Transcript] THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. I want to start by wishing my very good friend, Prime Minister Abe of Japan, a very happy birthday. He’s 39 years old today. (Laughter.) So please extend my wishes to the Prime Minister. He’s a great gentleman and we have had tremendous success.
As you know, in addition to what we’re talking about today, they’re building — Japan — many car plants in the United States, which they weren’t doing for a long time. And they’re building in Michigan, Ohio, lots of different states. And we just appreciate it very much. Been a tremendous investment.
But we’re here to talk about a little bit of a different purchase, and that’s good as far as we’re concerned. And I want to thank you very much. Very much. Thank you. (Applause.)
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An interesting article within The Atlantic draws attention to one of the more intended consequences of Maganomics: wages for the middle-class Americans are rising twice as fast as wages for high-income earners.

(Source)

Yes, President Trump is closing the wealth gap.
This dynamic is directly attached to President Trump’s MAGAnomic policy that focuses wage and income benefit directly to Main Street, “production economy”; and reverses the process that was driving benefit to U.S. multinationals on Wall Street, the “service-driven” economy.   As noted in The Atlantic:

[…]  According to analysis by Nick Bunker, an economist with the jobs site Indeed, wage growth is currently strongest for workers in low-wage industries, such as clothing stores, supermarkets, amusement parks, and casinos. And earnings are growing most slowly in higher-wage industries, such as medical labs, law firms, and broadcasting and telecom companies. (more)

While there are not technically going to be direct losers in a Main Street economy, there will undoubtedly be some amid the investment class who will be lesser-winners.
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In the bigger picture… Within the trade team, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is positioned with primary responsibility toward the EU and India. Ross clear-cuts through the politics, explains Trump’s objectives amid the trade proposals, and paves a path for U.S. Trade Rep Bob Lighthizer to engage his counterparts.
India has always been a key strategic nation within the global trade-realignment taking place by the Trump administration.  Under all of the banter, the “Indo-Pacific” strategy is structurally the decoupling of the U.S. from China. As a part of the strategy President Trump has positioned the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as benefactors in manufacturing & trade as an outcome of the U.S. decoupling from China.

However, India has genuine concerns about the global dynamic. Specifically, India is worried about allowing the multinationals to have influence over their economy and social structure. In this regard India is not wrong; their concerns are not unfounded.
We can all see, heck we’ve lived through, massive multinational corporations quickly gaining too much influence; including -eventually- corporate influence over the politics of a nation. That inherently leads to corruption.
When Americans see it in other nations we call it “bribery and corruption”, but when it happens in Washington, DC, we call it “lobbying”; the process is exactly the same.
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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses the Sept. Jobs report, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports and the next stages of U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Kudlow notes job growth in the Household survey was a stunning 391,000 in September.

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Kudlow also appeared on Bloomberg to discuss similar aspects of the latest reports (below).
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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox Business to discusses the World Trade Organization ruling granting the U.S. $7.5 billion in annual tariff countermeasures against the EU.

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones – The Trump administration via U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross won a massive $7.5 billion award as an outcome of the World Trade Organization agreeing with the U.S. against the EU and Airbus subsidies.  The WTO arbitrators decision is final and cannot be appealed.
This win sets the stage for President Trump to deploy $7.5 billion in countervailing duties against products from the EU.  Keep in mind, a final WTO ruling means the EU cannot retaliate against any WTO-authorized countermeasures.  The downstream ramifications are very significant. Think about it: at 25% the U.S. could tariff $30 billion in EU goods.

Man, talk about serendipitous timing… But first, here’s the press release from Robert Lighthizer:

Washington, D.C.–  The United States has won the largest arbitration award in World Trade Organization (WTO)  history in its dispute with the European Union over illegal subsidies to Airbus.  This follows four previous panel and appellate reports from 2011-2018 finding that EU subsidies to Airbus break WTO rules.
Today’s decision demonstrates that massive EU corporate welfare has cost American aerospace companies hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue over the nearly 15 years of litigation.

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There are two aspects to this recent story: the visible surface issue; and the unspoken issue below the surface.  In essence, there’s more here than most will recognize at first blush.
The surface level aspect is the Trump administration considering a block on U.S. investments into the opaque financial system that is China.
The U.S. financial media view the proposal through the prism of the White House looking for leverage over Beijing during negotiations:

(Via CNBC) […] Restricting financial investments in Chinese entities would be meant to protect U.S. investors from excessive risk due to lack of regulatory supervision, the source said.
The deliberations come as the U.S. looks for additional levers of influence in trade talks, which resume on Oct. 10 in Washington. Both countries slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods. The discussions also come as the Chinese government is taking steps to increase foreign access to its markets.

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President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan sign “stage-one” of a U.S-Japan trade agreement negotiated by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Foreign Minister Motegi; both are very strong negotiators.
The agreement has been in the works for several years as President Trump and PM Abe both held firm to positions that benefit both.  [Video and Transcript Below] Japan is the fulcrum for Trump’s Indo-Pacific trade reset; PM Abe recognizes the importance of positioning Japan to benefit from the decoupling between the U.S. and China.  Trade can be boring at times, but this jousting is actually a lot of fun; don’t miss it.

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[Transcript] – PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much everybody for being here. I’m honored to be alongside my great friend, Prime Minister Abe of Japan, to formally announce our first stage of a phenomenal new trade agreement with our close ally. They’ve been a great friend, and the Prime Minister has been my great friend.
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