Yikes, the text of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) has been released (full pdf below).  The Senate took H.R.748 stripped it out, and replaced the text with this bill.   The full 50 page senate record of the activity is available here.

Digging in now.  However, at first blush the size of the spending seems to be a considerable state budget deficit bailout [similar to how Obamacare removed the healthcare pension liabilities from unions].  Here’s the BILL:

[scribd id=453273118 key=key-drggn4Vhb6WkXv99UjQv mode=scroll]

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Share your thoughts in the comment section….

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Over the past three days a bipartisan group of senators, not leadership, constructed a $1.6 Trillion emergency aid package to rescue the U.S. economy and American workers.  The package had the support of Mitch McConnell. It is called The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or “CARE Act“. [READ BILL S.548 HERE]

However, at the last minute House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, having returned from her House recess vacation sipping cocktails poolside, instructed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to crush the senate effort.

Power hungry Pelosi sees an opportunity to use the looming economic crisis as leverage for selecting winners & losers amid the K-Street lobbying community.  Donors for Democrats will be rewarded; supporters of Republicans, not-so-much.  This is DC at it’s worst and Pelosi isn’t going to lose another opportunity.  It’s the same process she used in ’08/’09.

“Twice in one lifetime… How blessed am I?”

Senator Schumer did as he was instructed.  The relief bill did not pass cloture (60 votes needed), and the three-day effort collapsed.  Immediately the DOW futures dropped 5%.

WASHINGTON DC – “I want everybody to fully understand if we aren’t able to act tomorrow, it will be because of our colleagues on the other side continuing to dicker when the country expects us to come together and address the problem,” McConnell said on the floor. He added that over the last 48 hours there were bipartisan discussions among “regular members of the Senate, not in the Leadership office, not in the speaker’s office for goodness sakes.”

“She’s the Speaker of the House, not the Speaker of the Senate,” McConnell added. “We were doing just fine until that intervention.”  (more)

There are two main points Pelosi is targeting.  First, because COVID-19 creates a MASSIVE SPENDING opportunity, Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to include the elimination of college debt, literally wipe out student loans – which ironically and intentionally were created under Obamacare, in the coronavirus bill.

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CTH analyzes data to assemble unemotional models that reflect/predict outcomes.  If this type of government mandate expands much further, there WILL be rationing – it is an inescapable conclusion.  It’s not a matter of “if“, it’s a matter of when… where… and how.

Perhaps that explains all the National Guard deployments and pre-staging:

Kansas/Missouri – Today the CORE 4 partners of Jackson County, Missouri; Johnson County, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri, and the Unified Government of Wyandotte County/Kansas City, Kansas, based on the urgency of the COVID-19 public health emergency and the imminent rapid progression of the pandemic in our area, announce that beginning Tuesday, March 24, residents will be directed to stay at home except for essential needs.

All jurisdictions will issue orders that will stay in effect for 30 days from the effective date of March 24, with consideration after 30 days of whether to prolong these orders beyond that date, based on public health and critical care metrics available at that time.

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Math is math. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the math, understand the logistics of the current extreme demand, recognize that fixed assets are limited, and realize if you shut down essential services for truckers the total supply-chain will suffer.

On March 17th Pennsylvania officially shuttered all Turnpike service plazas in response to coronavirus concerns. However, the decision was ridiculously short-sighted as long-haul and regional Truckers depend on fuel stations, bathrooms and restaurants along the route. Thankfully PA officials realized their error and reopened the service stations yesterday.

PA Authority – The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission has agreed to reopen all of service plazas that they shuttered earlier this week for Coronavirus.

All 17 closed service plazas are set to reopen at 7 a.m. on Friday, March 20, according to a news release from the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission.

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We are entering into phase-3 of the supply-chain distribution shortages within the retail food sector.   Phase-1 was immediate impact.  Phase-2 was the spread to the warehouse and distribution.  Phase-3 impacts are further upstream, processing & suppliers.

The current shelf-stock shortages are not soon to reconcile; however, the shortages are still in the regional phase.  Meaning there is a big difference in the availability of products depending on the type of distribution network, and the specific retailers, in your area.

The ‘spider-spread effect’ happens when large metropolitan chains, serving large urban and megalopolis areas (1 million+ residents in 50 mile radius), reach a critical shortage in their supply network; and those residents then drive distances to locate their needs.  This is going on now across the country as regional supply chains try to keep up with demand.

Most consumers are not aware food consumption in the U.S. is now a 50/50 proposition. Approximately 50% of all food was consumed “outside the home” (or food away from home), and 50% of all food consumed was food “inside the home” (grocery shoppers).

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Earlier today President Trump met with executives from the U.S. tourism industry to discuss how their operation are impacted by the various COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Participants included: Roger Dow, President & CEO, Travel Association; Chip Rogers, President & CEO, American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA); Jon Bortz, President and CEO, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust and AHLA Chairman; Elie Maalouf, President, The Americas, Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG); Christopher Nassetta, President & CEO, Hilton; Arne Sorenson, President & CEO, Marriott International; Richard Bates, EVP, Disney; Mark Hoplamazian, President & CEO, Hyatt Hotels Corporation; John Sprouls, Chief Administrative Officer, Universal Parks and Resorts; Patrick Pacious, President and CEO, Choice Hotels International; David Kong, CEO, Best Western Hotels and Resorts; Jim Murren, President & CEO, MGM  [Video and Transcript Below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much. We have the tourism industry executives, the biggest anywhere in the world. These are the great ones, and they’re going to say a couple of little words pretty soon, I think. We’ll talk about their company quickly and the number of employees and what’s happened since the Chinese virus came about. And they’ll be discussing that.

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By today the closure of dine-in restaurants should be in full swing across almost all areas. Understandably there’s going to be an operational lag as many of those restaurants don’t have the systems or equipment in place for exclusive take-out or pick-up services (ie. carry-out containers); though hopefully many are responding quickly to the changes.

The upstream consequence of the restaurant disruption is going to be even more pressure on grocery outlets already seeing additional traffic. Many people now shifting from meals “outside the home”, back to the more traditional “home-cooked” meals etc. Which brings up the question of the retail supermarket capacity to meet that extra demand.

This coronavirus event is like a nationwide pre-Hurricane shopping experience.

There have been numerous reports of wide-scale shortages in retail food markets. On the positive side this experienced supply chain has the ability to scale-up very fast (depending on region). However, on a national scale this is the first time the entire country has needed this level of increased retail food distribution simultaneously. To cope with the volume most stores appear to have reduced their hours of operation.

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Horrific coincidence that might not entirely be a coincidence.  A Ukraine 737 Airliner, Flight 752 from Tehran to Ukraine, is lost shortly after take-off.  The incident takes place only hours after Iran fires ballistic missiles into Iraq targeting U.S. bases.

Video of the plane crashing shows the airliner in flames as it nears the ground and explodes.  Some preliminary reporting indicated the flight might have been accidentally shot down by Iranian anti-aircraft defenses.  [Note: All early details are sketchy]

(Via Daily Mail) A Ukrainian passenger plane carrying 170 passengers and crew has crashed near Tehran just three minutes after takeoff.
The plane had taken off from Imam Khomeini International Airport when it suffered ‘technical problems’, Iranian State TV reported.
Unverified video footage tweeted by the BBC’s Iran correspondent, Ali Hashem, appeared to show the plane burning in the sky before crashing in a huge explosion.

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Wait,… what? Who cancelled the recession?

Remember when the financial media and democrats were assuring everyone the U.S. economy was g.u.a.r.a.n.t.e.e.d to enter a recessionary phase? Well, apparently MAGA Trump cancelled it… with the help of millions of U.S. middle-class workers who are spending their wage increases, bigly.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the third quarter (Q3) GDP growth estimate today, and the overall Q3 GDP growth is +1.9 percent. However, behind the economic growth stats the scale of U.S. Main Street strength is the real story.

[BEA pdf link – table 3]

Main Street consumer spending was up $64 billion on goods and $36 billion on services. As those who follow MAGAnomics closely will remember, the Main Street economy is founded upon middle-class spending. Strong jobs, wage growth, low taxes, low inflation, and low energy costs, means more disposable income.  Disposable income grew 4.5% in the third quarter.
The U.S. economy is strong because approximately 80% of everything produced inside our economy is consumed inside our economy. As long as the underlying jobs market stays strong, consumer spending leads to self-fulfilling economic expansion. Main Street is doing very well.
The weakness is Wall Street investment into expanded production of goods in the U.S.
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President Trump was scheduled to meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for a discussion over an infrastructure spending bill.  However, after partisan remarks by Nancy Pelosi accusing President Trump of a cover-up, any hope of negotiating an infrastructure bill collapsed.  President Trump is angered: