It is interesting to watch the Trump Cabinet debate the Obama Cabinet (U.S. media). In this interview between White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and ABC’s Martha Raddatz the central topic is Iran; the detailed conversation is deep weeds therein.

After Bolton presents the administration position and reasoning for exiting the deeply flawed, unsigned and unenforceable Obama Iran “deal” (not treaty), essentially a JCPOA pathway to the land of broken promises, Ambassador Bolton then reaches the part of the discussion where sanctions against European companies come back into play.  This is the best part.  WATCH:

Massive U.S. economic leverage, and the strategic application therein, is an aspect that drives the left-wing Iranian apologists bananas.  A weaponized $20 trillion U.S. economy is the unavoidable atomic sledgehammer at the foundation of the Trump Doctrine.  It is far more powerful than a military weapon and drops all nations to their knees in compliance.

Everything is about the economics. E.V.E.R.Y.T.H.I.N.G. Every point of opposition; every forward MAGA policy; every initiative, including freedom; every move toward success; everything is about the economics.

Look at the immediate take-away published by Reuters.

(more…)

Critical Update – Critical Update – Critical Update

Those who are watching the NAFTA negotiations must pay close attention to the activity in the past 36 hours.  There is a key video at the bottom.  First the backdrop:

As most are aware the NAFTA fatal flaw, the “loophole”, surrounds Mexico and Canada structuring their economic manufacturing policy -and trade deals- through the exploitation of a back-door into the U.S. Market. Understanding this key issue is paramount to understanding President Trump’s approach therein.

Remove the NAFTA “loophole” and there is no longer an incentive for U.S. manufacturers to locate their operations in Mexico or Canada. However, the removal of this loophole also means China, ASEAN nations and the EU lose the same incentive.

There have been hundreds of billions of previous investment by multinational corporations in Mexico and Canada.  Every dollar spent was intended to continue this exploitation.

Then came Trump.

In terms of investment size and scale of manufacturing, the auto-sector is perhaps the primary industry attempting to position themselves to avoid any reversal of the NAFTA scheme; and it is a self-interested economic scheme. In the short term there are billions at stake; in the longer term there are trillions within the equation.

(more…)

President Trump delivers remarks on drug price initiatives from the Rose Garden.

UPDATE: Video Added

(more…)

NAFTA is at a critical stage.  Mexico has committed themselves to a full-court press this week in an effort to retain the investment influx from multinational corporations.  To retain their advantage, Mexico needs to keep the NAFTA loophole allowing Asia and EU to use Mexico and Canada as back-doors to the U.S. market.

Additionally, AM-LO, a self-described soft-Marxist (similar to Hugo Chavez) is likely to win the July 1st Mexican election.   Yesterday, Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Videgaray travels down the street to the State Department for a meeting with Secretary Pompeo. From the U.S. perspective, anything from Secretary Videgaray is essentially moot at this point; the Mexican government is moving toward a more socialistic economic model.

[Transcript] SECRETARY POMPEO: Good afternoon. Today it is my pleasure and a great honor to welcome the Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Videgaray to the State Department. Welcome.

We had a great discussion and we had so because Mexico is one of the United States’ closest partners. Together we are working to build a more secure, prosperous, and democratic hemisphere. We are neighbors, allies, and friends.

(more…)

Generally speaking the corporate media have yet to have an honest outline about the fatal flaw within NAFTA that allows China, ASEAN nations and the EU to exploit previous investments in Canada and Mexico as a back-door to the U.S. market.

In a generalized aspect, the recent visit of top U.S. trade and economic policymakers to China was part of Trump’s exploration into the larger dynamic of bi-lateral trade between the U.S. and China knowing full well the NAFTA flaw remains unaddressed.  Without addressing the loop-hole (aka ‘fatal flaw’) any modernized NAFTA deal is moot; and by extension the foundation for any future trade deal between the U.S. and China is too byzantine to manage.

It is in China and the EU’s interests to continue exploiting the NAFTA access.  It is in Canada and Mexico’s interests to retain the subsequent investment influx.

It is in multinational corporate and Wall Street interests to continue the scheme. However, it is also entirely against U.S. Main Street interests.  Hence, NAFTA loggerheads reigns supreme; and in my opinion, we are soon to see President Trump cut the Gordian knot.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Senior Canadian, U.S. and Mexican officials trying to rescue slow-moving talks to update the NAFTA trade pact met on Monday in a new bid to resolve key issues before regional elections complicate the process.

With time fast running out to strike some kind of deal on the North American Free Trade Agreement, the three member nations are still far apart on major points.

(more…)

Ambassador Lighthizer comments on NAFTA prior to departing for China.  In the auto sector, Mexico and Canada are still arguing for more Asian/Chinese parts for U.S. automobiles.  The U.S. position is for higher North American content. Loggerheads.

I still find it stunning how many people cannot see the ridiculous side of the Mexican and Canadian position; and how that showcases the insanity of NAFTA. Can/Mex are not arguing for more Canada and Mexico content, they are holding out for more Asian content.  Their economic models are nothing more than brokering the assembly of cheap Asian goods through their NAFTA access to the U.S. market.  Ridiculous.

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Tuesday that if a deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement cannot be reached with Canada and Mexico in about three weeks, its approval by the U.S. Congress could be in jeopardy.

Lighthizer said at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event that a deal to update NAFTA was needed quickly because of the lengthy notification process for congressional approval of trade deals.

(more…)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses the ongoing trade initiatives with China ahead of the U.S. delegation departing later tonight.  Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative/Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow and White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro are all heading to Beijing to meet with their Chinese counterparts.

Secretary Ross is like the Babe Ruth of trade-baseball. Wilburine has a way of taking complex issues pitched to him, and knocking them out of the ballpark with an extremely fast common sense bat.  He makes it look effortless.  Watch:

.

Two quick thoughts. First, I think this is the first time every member of Team America (Ross, Mnuchin, Lighthizer, Kudlow, Navarro) has unified into one specific set of trade negotiations. That helps understand the scale of importance of the China trade relationship.

Second, there’s no traveling parallel contingent consisting of outside government members/advisers from of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. This is a significant change from the past 30 years of Wall Street policy manipulation by the CoC. Many people may not be aware but until President Trump the U.S. government didn’t actually write the trade agreements.

For all prior administrations the actual negotiations and agreements were willingly sub-contracted out to U.S. Chamber of Commerce delegations. This is how the multinationals took control of trade policy and eventually the U.S. economy. CoC President Tom Donohue must be apoplectic now that he is facing an administration actually writing the trade agreements.

(more…)

President Trump’s MAGAnomic team have announced a 30-day extension for the Steel (25%) and Aluminum (10%) tariffs for the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

Also, after a prior agreement with South-Korea, the “KORUS” deal, team U.S.A. has also reached an agreement in principle with Australia, Argentina and Brazil which will be finalized in next 30 days.

Via Wall Street Journal – President Donald Trump has decided to postpone decisions about imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union and other U.S. allies until June 1, a senior administration official said.

In addition to announcing the delay, the White House is expected to say Monday evening that it has finalized a deal to exempt South Korea from the tariffs, mirroring details that have been previously released by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.

(more…)

There is a geopolitical strategy happening this week that is essentially under the radar.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, USTR Robert Lighthizer, Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow, and the U.S. trade team are heading to China.

The outcome of their discussions connects the initiatives behind North Korea, China and NAFTA.  The steel and aluminum tariffs are part of the toolbox.  Only one media personality, our favorite suspicious cat, appears to understand the larger economic play and how it is being deployed.

From the U.S. perspective, NAFTA has a fatal flaw. Mexico and Canada admitted the flaw for the first time a few weeks ago. The flaw is Mexico and Canada’s exploitation of NAFTA as a backdoor into the U.S. market for Asian, mostly Chinese, manufactured products. Multinational corporations who have invested in Canada and Mexico are determined to retain the flaw.

President Trump understands that as long as Canada and Mexico can unilaterally make trade agreements with the EU and ASEAN nations, any NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is moot. The NAFTA talks are paused.

The U.S. Team now heads to China. There’s no doubt part of the objective is to begin a structural discussion that must happen for the U.S. trade team to approach closing the fatal NAFTA flaw from the source of origin. [*note* on the EU side of this issue, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is leading a similar discussion. Mnuchin and Lighthizer are focused on Asia, Ross has responsibility for Europe]

(more…)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), who track GDP  -and-  U.S. Labor Department (DoL) Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), who track wage growth, have released the initial sets of analysis for Quarter 1 of this year (Jan-March).   The first quarter growth in GDP comes in at 2.3%.  [Most estimates initially expected 2.0% or slightly less.]

CBS – […] It’s common for economic growth to slow in the first quarter and then accelerate later in the year. Still, the January-March increase was better than expected: Economists had foreseen a 2 percent annualized rate. In the current quarter, economists expect growth to surpass 3 percent.

The 2.3% first quarter result puts 2018 on track to achieve President Trump’s targeted growth rate: over three percent combined growth for the full year.   Due to seasonal fluctuations the first quarter is historically the weakest for GDP growth.  The second quarter will likely rebound well above 3.5% as the historic Q1 -vs- Q2 trend shows above.

(more…)