President Trump held an impromptu presser prior to departing JBA for Alabama.  This is one of those mini-pressers that reveals important aspects to the *direction* of the U.S-China trade discussion from the POTUS perspective.  The financial pundits always miss these little tell-tale remarks.  President Trump is managing the trade and economic program at a granular level; this is his priority… every little part of it, he is directing.
President Trump notes the value of the tariff strategy, and infers (not so subtle) that no deal is preferred within his ongoing plan: “you’ll see what I’m going to be doing.”  This is what the financial pundits ignore. President Trump has gamed this out, he’s stringing the process slowly to keep boosting the stock market…. but his goal does not include a deal.
[Video and Transcript below]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: I look forward to seeing a lot of things. But on Monday, in particular, our stock market has just broken another record, as you see. Our economy is doing phenomenally well. Our jobs numbers just broke yet another record. They’re higher than ever before. Our country is doing better than it’s ever done. Our military is rebuilt. It was a mess when I took over.

And a lot of good things are happening, and now I’m going to watch Alabama-LSU, and that’ll be a lot of fun. So, we look forward to it.

Do you have a question? Go ahead.

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As we warned yesterday, about taking the propaganda of the Beijing panda mask…
Well, today President Trump pummels that narrative when he was asked about it during an impromptu press conference at the White House:

Q On China, can you tell me whether a tariff rollback will be part of the phase-one China deal?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, they’d like to have a rollback. I haven’t agreed to anything. China would like to get somewhat of a rollback — not a complete rollback, because they know I won’t do it.

But we’re getting along very well with China. They want to make a deal. Frankly, they want to make a deal a lot more than I do. I’m very happy right now. We’re taking in billions of dollars. I’m very happy. China would like to make a deal much more than I would. (link)

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a statement out today that underlines why so many global forces are against President Trump: “there are trillions at stake”.

(Reuters) – An interim U.S.-China trade deal that rolls back some tariffs has the potential to improve the International Monetary Fund’s baseline economic forecasts, which show the two countries’ trade war slowing global growth significantly this year, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. (read more)

The baseline for the position of the IMF is the open secret amid global economic that few will ever discuss openly.  The U.S. economy generates approximately $21 trillion in total activity; roughly 20 percent of total global economic activity.
When the U.S. maintains a $500 billion per year trade deficit with China, essentially we are sending China trade dollars Beijing then uses to purchase industrial products from the EU an other nations.  Any reduction in the U.S-China deficit means China has less dollars to distribute; as an outcome the global economies have access to less U.S. wealth.
The process to retain U.S. dollars inside our own economy, President Trump’s “America First” economic agenda, is the heart of what most call the global economic slowdown.  As a result the position of the IMF is better when the U.S. maintains a deficit, and the position of the IMF is weakened by any process that stops that exfiltration of wealth.
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There is a lot of banter amid the punditry class of trade and finance watchers surrounding a statement from Chinese Commerce spokesman Gao Feng claiming that U.S. and China negotiators were discussing a ‘phased’ roll-back of U.S. tariffs as part of a trade deal. However, a note of very strong caution should be applied.

On its face the Beijing-central claim is essentially an accurate portrayal of a dynamic long discussed.  The tariffs were initially imposed to reset the outlook of China.  In any negotiation with China a concession of current status is a non-starter.  By natural disposition Beijing refuses to cede already won ground. This is their historic approach.
Therefore when engaging in any negotiations with China it is necessary to reset the baseline.  China has to naturally feel losses; the economic landscape must be changed around them without their participation; in order for for them to consider negotiation.
The punishing U.S. tariffs accomplished this objective; the Beijing baseline status has been changed.  The bamboo forest is significantly less than it was two years ago, and now China wants to recapture lost position. Their current status indicates exactly that dynamic.
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Unemployment claims dropped by 8,000 last week showcasing a very strong job market for all sectors of employment.  The U.S. Dept of Labor Report shows continued strong jobs growth surprising most economic pundits.

(DOL Report – pdf page 4)

(Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with strong labor market conditions and continued job growth.

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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appears on Fox Business to discuss the latest excellent jobs report and the overall strength of the U.S. economy.
Additional points of interest discussed are the U.S-China trade negotiations, the status of the internal Beijing communist control over their economy and the ongoing issues with the EU.  Lots of good MAGAnomic news.

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Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, the October jobs report has blown away all expectations in every possible metric.  It’s not just the top-line job gains, the two month revisions are huge.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for October shows 128,000 job gains; and that number includes absorption for negative impacts due to -20,000 census workers coming off federal payrolls, and -42,000 striking auto-workers.  Far better employment numbers than all projections and estimations.
Additionally, the prior two months had massive upward revisions. August was revised up by 51,000 (from +168,000 to +219,000), and the change for September was revised up by 44,000 (from +136,000 to +180,000). With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 95,000 more than previously reported (BLS Link).

“The October jobs report is unambiguously positive for the US economic outlook,” said Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst. “Above-consensus hiring in October, together with upward revisions to prior months, is consistent with our view that job growth will maintain a pace of 130-150K per month. Wage growth remaining at 3.0% should further support incomes and consumption-led growth.”  (link)

The strong employment results are so strong the results now have all of the financial pundits reassessing their prior perspectives on the state of the U.S. economy.
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Wait,… what? Who cancelled the recession?

Remember when the financial media and democrats were assuring everyone the U.S. economy was g.u.a.r.a.n.t.e.e.d to enter a recessionary phase? Well, apparently MAGA Trump cancelled it… with the help of millions of U.S. middle-class workers who are spending their wage increases, bigly.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the third quarter (Q3) GDP growth estimate today, and the overall Q3 GDP growth is +1.9 percent. However, behind the economic growth stats the scale of U.S. Main Street strength is the real story.

[BEA pdf link – table 3]

Main Street consumer spending was up $64 billion on goods and $36 billion on services. As those who follow MAGAnomics closely will remember, the Main Street economy is founded upon middle-class spending. Strong jobs, wage growth, low taxes, low inflation, and low energy costs, means more disposable income.  Disposable income grew 4.5% in the third quarter.
The U.S. economy is strong because approximately 80% of everything produced inside our economy is consumed inside our economy. As long as the underlying jobs market stays strong, consumer spending leads to self-fulfilling economic expansion. Main Street is doing very well.
The weakness is Wall Street investment into expanded production of goods in the U.S.
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White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox Business to discuss the purpose and intent of the USMCA and the ongoing China trade discussions.
What Navarro skims upon is the heart of the economic purpose behind the USMCA as requested by President Trump and constructed by USTR Lighthizer. The USMCA establishes an internal North American manufacturing system; this provides the alternative for Asian manufacturing of goods for the U.S. market.
This manufacturing system is why Mexico is “all-in” to support the USMCA. Additionally, the economic benefits within the system as constructed is exactly why Mexican President Lopez-Obrador is willing to pressure House democrats to ratify and also back-up President Trump on other geopolitical issues (immigration controls etc).

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On the Stock Market dynamic. Currently there is a great deal of investment capital waiting to see where the money should be placed. Investment in China has dropped dramatically; investment in Southeast Asia shifted, but new investment is pending this outcome. Multinationals are calculating the TCP (Total Cost of Production), and if the new USMCA is passed there will be a triggering effect of North American investment because the uncertainty will be eliminated.
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White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro discusses the lack of action from Speaker Pelosi on ratification of the USMCA.
As CTH has outlined since the July 2019 alliance meeting between Pelosi and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the strongest likelihood is the House will table the ratification vote until after the 2020 election. It is a strategic political decision.

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