According to ADP payroll processing U.S. private employers are estimated to have added 263,000 jobs in March.  This is likely more than the number employers hired in February and well above economists’ expectations.  This is the largest anticipated job growth in the past two years.

The earlier forecast by ADP National Employment Report estimated growth of 187,000 jobs, with median-range economic estimates spanning 110,000 to 225,000.  The current report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

The U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report comes out on Friday and will include both public and private-sector employment.  Economists polled by Reuters were looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 175,000 jobs in March, less than the 227,000 in February – so the 263,000 estimate has caught them off guard.  The ADP results are much stronger (100,000 more) than anticipated.

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Secretary Rex Tillerson delivered very important remarks today in Palm Beach Florida ahead of ongoing discussions with the Chinese delegation and President Xi Jinping meeting with President Donald Trump.

Following the segment by T-Rex outlining the parameters for the meetings today and tomorrow, Tillerson communicated a position of the Trump administration that Syrian leader Bashir Assad should step down from power.

“With the acts that he has taken, it would seem that there would be no rule for [Assad] to govern the Syrian people.

The process by which Assad would leave is something that I think requires and international community effort, both to first defeat ISIS within Syria, to stabilize the Syrian country to avoid further civil war, and then to work collectively with our partners around the world through a political process that would lead to Assad leaving.”

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Neither Secretary Tillserson or President Trump are proposing military action to remove Assad.  However, the remarks by Secretary Tillerson about Syria and Bashir Assad are a shift in approach, and were almost simultaneously communicated by President Trump (albeit with nuance) aboard Air-Force One en route to Palm Beach.   See below: (more…)

This morning President Trump and Vice-President Pence hosted a town hall on American Business.  The town hall consisted of CEOs and business leaders gathered to discuss infrastructure and the need to reduce regulations in order to help alleviate the restrictions that have plagued businesses.

[TRANSCRIPT] 10:41 A.M. EDT – THE VICE PRESIDENT:  It’s a great privilege to be able to welcome you to the White House.  Thank you so much.  I want to thank everyone involved in the Partnership for New York City — Michael Corbat, Stephen Schwarzman.

It’s an honor to have the leaders that are gathered in the room here with us today.  I know the President is on his way over, and it’s my great privilege this morning to share a few thoughts, in the midst of this important conversation on the topics that you’re covering before I introduce my friend and the 45th President of the United States.

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Oh man, THIS is epic. 

This is what happens when you take an intellectual gnat carrying nothing but ‘talking points’ (Tapper), and have them interview a Subject Matter Expert (Ross).

Secretary Wilburine hilariously flicks off the stuttering gnat with an immediate ‘Triple Farkas‘.

• Tapper: Muh “Chinese currency manipulation”?
• Wilburine: ‘I’m the Secretary of Commerce not Treasury’.

• Tapper: Muh “Well, Builder Trump used Chinese steel to build”?
• Wilburine: ‘Builders hire contractors, they purchase materials’.

• Tapper: Muh “But, but… Trump signed XO in different room”?
• Wilburine: ‘Where President Trump signs orders is not of particular concern’.

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Important note: Notice how not a single question of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was related in any way to commerce or trade.

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President Trump met earlier today with the National Association of Manufacturers to discuss a survey of 14,000 manufacturer members which reflects intense optimism and a stunning 93% positive outlook for growth.

The Manufacturing Association has been conducting the business review for twenty years and this is the highest ever recorded level of optimism for manufacturing jobs in two decades.  [Keep a close eye on wage rates, they are about to jump – Bigly.. /SD]

[TRANSCRIPT] 12:09 P.M. EDT –  THE PRESIDENT:  We have some really good news today that’s really fantastic — these numbers.  Today I’m delighted to welcome the National Association of Manufacturers to the White House.  It’s a great group of people.  I know many of them well.

And I want to thank your president and CEO, Jay Timmons, for being here with us today.  Great job.

MR. TIMMONS:  Thank you.

THE PRESIDENT:  Great job, Jay.

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In the final hours prior to the healthcare debacle, the billionaire Koch Brothers sent a warning to the House Freedom Caucus that they’d better hold the line and kill the ObamaCare repeal or replacement bill, or else.

…”The advocacy groups helmed by Charles and David Koch have unveiled a new pool of money for advertisements, field programs and mailings that would exclude those who vote for the health care bill they oppose on Thursday. The effort, which they described as worth millions of dollars, is an explicit warning to on-the-fence Republicans from one of the most influential players in electoral politics not to cross them”… (more).

Weeks earlier the Billionaire authors (special interests) behind the ObamaCare repeal and replacement, Tom Donohue U.S. CoC et al., warned Speaker Ryan they expected the boundaries established years earlier to be retained.
Two sets of billionaire interests representing: ‘who-pays-the-insurance-premium‘ within the Healthcare issue.
It’s Paul Ryan’s fault, “remove him” some say.  No, it’s the House Freedom Caucus. “Grab the tar and feathers”, others say….
Odd, no?
Odd, because in the aftermath of the fiasco all of the blame-centric attention is focused on Speaker Paul Ryan and/or the House Freedom Caucus – meanwhile the billionaires garner nary a critical side-eye?
Perhaps it’s just too disconcerting of a paradigm shift for the average voter to ask?

Why are two billionaires Charles and David Koch allowed to threaten standing members of congress who are collectively at least supposed to represent the interests of approximately 28 million voters?

Why is Tom Donohue (U.S. Chamber of Commerce, President) allowed to threaten the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and author legislation affecting 300+ million?

No-one seems to ask those questions.
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A series of recent headline articles about traditional economic analysts, government and private, perplexed by financial and consumer trends – highlights the disconnect inherent amid those who cannot reset their frame of economic reference.
For 30+ years U.S. economic political policy has been driven by Wall Street interests. STOP. Main Street, the middle-class and the American worker have suffered. STOP. The successful election of Donald Trump, and the execution of his “main street” economic policy agenda, has sledgehammered the prior economic machine into a full seizure an halt. FULL STOP.

(WSJ Article Link)

It was Albert Einstein who aptly stated:

“The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them.”

The same basic principle applies to those who are trying to understand and evaluate current economic activity yet failing to disengage themselves from their historic economic frames of reference. (more…)

President Trump’s U.S. trade policy of “America First”, free but FAIR trade, came to the forefront in Germany as Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin subtly yet firmly pushed back against language that affirmed globalism and multilateral trade.
According to the Washington Post German officials urged Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to agree to their customary modern free trade language in the G20’s joint statement.
However, the U.S. Treasury Secretary refused their request and instead urged adoption of more general wording allowing each nation to make their own determinations of what constitutes “free and fair trade” with their own best interests in mind.
This approach is the basis for one-on-one bilateral trade.  It is also the starting point toward negotiating exceptional trade deals by providing leverage which allows President Trump, Secretary Ross and Trade Rep Lighthizer to frame proposals (by competing nations) against each other.  By holding firm to the basic trade outlook Secretary Mnuchin is setting the table for the U.S. trade team to renegotiate everything.
The disconnect from the traditional economic group-think of the G20 finance ministers is a direct break from the past two decades.  This central approach reflects the baseline change in ongoing U.S. trade policy.  It would appear President Trump and his economic team are more concerned about the interests of American workers than foreign nationals. Go figure.
Secretary Mnuchin suggested adding more general language committing to “strengthen the contribution of trade.”   A version of that sentence was included in the statement, despite criticisms from some G20 finance ministers that it was pointless.
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OMB Director Mick Mulvaney attends the daily White House press briefing and fields questions about the President Trump ‘America-First’ budget.
Director Mulvaney does an exceptional job explaining the larger budgetary issues, priorities and squashing some of the more ridiculous media narratives du jour.

Trump Economics – […] As the wage rate increases, and as the economy expands, the governmental dependency model is reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improve.
More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare programs has a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar. That is how the SSI and safety net programs are saved under President Trump.
When you elevate your economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional.
As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so too does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create. (link)

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It’s really interesting to read the financial presentation of Reuters in their article outlining the Fed, Chair Janet Yellen, decision to raise interest rates a quarter point (.25).  Keep in mind that Reuters traditionally slants left (globally) on all economic presentations.
Those Treepers who have followed our economic analysis will note the disparity between Yellen’s justification and the inconsequential impact therein.   The Stock Market never even flinched today.  Part of the reason is the disconnected (traditional) view of economics within the current Yellen justifications.  It ain’t just us who sees this “new dimension“.

Emphasis in citations are all mine.

(Reuters) The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months, a move spurred by steady economic growth, strong job gains and confidence that inflation is rising to the central bank’s target.
The decision to lift the target overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent marked one of the Fed’s most convincing steps yet in the effort to return monetary policy to a more normal footing.

{define “normal”}
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