First rule in geopolitics, it’s always about the economics.  Second rule in geopolitics: refer to rule #1.    Understanding this basic truism is the key to understand how President Trump is able to be so effective.  There are trillions at stake, and infinite interests.

“Economic security is national security.” ~President Trump

All politics circles back to the underlying economics; whether it is an individual financial self-interest for a specific politician, or whether it is a larger financial interest for a group or even a nation.  Everything is always about the money, and that essential truth is why Donald Trump is so uniquely qualified, influential and stunningly effective. Today:

(VIA CBC) The United States would “enthusiastically” support a no-deal Brexit if that is what the British government decided to do, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told reporters on Monday.
[…]  As the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, its biggest geopolitical shift since the Second World War, many diplomats expect London to become increasingly reliant on the United States.
“If that’s the decision of the British government we will support it enthusiastically, and that’s what I’m trying to convey. We’re with you, we’re with you,” said Bolton, in London for two days of talks with British officials. The U.S. administration is seeking an improved U.S.-British relationship with Prime Minister Boris Johnson after sometimes tense ties between Donald Trump and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May.

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After reviewing the unexpected resignation of Canadian Ambassador to the United States, David MacNaughton, several aspects of the U.S-Canada economic relationship; and the larger political ideological relationship between the far-left in both countries; begins to take a sharper focus.
Justin from Canada has acquiesced to the influence of democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and agreed to postpone any USMCA ratification vote in Parliament until Pelosi gives Justin her approval.  For political purposes, Speaker Pelosi is attempting to stall the USMCA vote in congress, which directly supports China, as long as possible.

When we first reviewed this political quid-pro-quo, we wondered if Justin from Canada was actually willing to hurt his own economy just to assist the political efforts of U.S. democrats.  Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding yes.

OTTAWA—Canada’s unemployment rate rose in July as the economy unexpectedly shed jobs for a second straight month, fueling speculation over a possible Bank of Canada rate cut later this year.
The Canadian economy lost a net 24,200 jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Friday. Market expectations were for a net job increase of 12,500.

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White House Manufacturing and Trade Policy Advisor Peter Navarro appears on CNBC to discuss the turbulent week on Wall Street and the current status of the U.S. trade position with China.  Pundits are starting to accept that bigger tariffs are on the horizon.  Team Trump is not backing down; and our U.S. position is much stronger.
On one hand, Wall Street loves cheap money (low fed rates). However, on the other hand 51% of all Chinese manufacturing is done by U.S. owned multinationals; and those corporations don’t want to see the retention efforts of China undermined with a lower dollar value (lower fed rate). As a consequence Wall Street is schizophrenic.

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On the issue of manufacturers leaving China, Forbes has this outlook: “American businesses now have a month to prepare their supply chains for the impending tariff changes. Companies that do well will be the ones who have taken Trump at his word, rather than to doubt the Disruptor-in-Chief’s position on China. Further disruptions are coming to the U.S. supplier network, impacting how equity analysts view companies, recommend their stocks, and — in a broader sense — impacting the business cycle, already long in the tooth.” (link)
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It is hard to believe but it’s been three years since we first outlined what would happen if candidate Donald Trump’s “America First” policy was implemented.  Specifically how the Federal Reserve would essentially become disconnected and functionally obsolescent for a few years.  As a result of the evidence visible, we are in a unique position to explain.
Staying in the big picture, a disconnected Fed was very predictable.  In the past 35 years the Wall Street multinationals gained as cheap money flowed overseas to start global manufacturing operations; Main Street USA suffered.  When you reverse this process by punishing the multinationals (tariffs), shifting the global supply chain, and changing the best location for investment dollars, Main Street USA benefits.  President Trump August 7th tweets statement:

Notice the “we are competing against other countries” part of the statement.  This is key to understanding what is in the future.  The Wall Street ‘multinationals’, corporations making and selling goods, are invested in production within other countries.
On one hand, Wall Street loves cheap money (low fed rates). However, on the other hand Wall Street multinationals are invested in overseas manufacturing; and those corporations don’t want to see the retention efforts of China and the EU undermined with a lower dollar value (lower fed rate).  So Wall Street is schizophrenic (check the stock market).
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CTH writes a great deal about President Trump’s economic policies, and how those policies are reversing the decades-long erosion of the middle-class.  Factually, substantively and empirically the workers of America are gaining ground. Bigger and better than before, and far beyond what anyone else could have delivered.

This is not a theoretical exercise.  The execution of a broad-based economic and global trade reset is underway. Today’s economic results, the growing strength of our U.S. economy, is a testament to the success of MAGAnomic policy being delivered. These results, when fully realized, will secure our economic future and last for generations.
All of that said, there is something we don’t emphasize enough: The team of Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, USTR Lighthizer, Trade and Manufacturing advisor Navarro and NEC Director Larry Kudlow, face a scale of opposition almost unfathomable in modern political terms.  There are trillions at stake; hundreds of the most powerful financial interests in the world are against them; and yet this team is succeeding.
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National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow, appears on CNBC to discuss the U.S-China trade conflict that led to yesterday’s stock market drop. Additionally, Kudlow notes the strong key performance indicators that highlight the strength of the U.S. Main Street economy.

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Larry Kudlow also held a press conference.
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White House trade and manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro, appears with Lou Dobbs to discuss the current status of the U.S.-China trade conflict.
Within the interview Navarro discusses the impact of China devaluing their currency as a strategy to avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.  WATCH:

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Beijing has once again used their proxy province of North Korea to launch small two short-range ballistic missiles as leverage in the U.S. and China trade confrontation.

WASHINGTON – For the fourth time in less than two weeks, North Korea has fired projectiles into the Sea of Japan, a U.S. official said.
The two projectiles, fired on Tuesday morning local time, were assessed to be similar to the short-range ballistic missiles tested by North Korea last week, the official said. (read more)

Moments later President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin fired a counter-missile directly into the heart of Beijing’s trade currency manipulation:
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China needs to buy dollars to backstop their own currency (¥uan). When China trades with the U.S. they hold the return dollars as a peg against their weak currency.  Remove the flow of dollars (lessen exports) and they start to run out of strong pegged currency.
What is happening today is not as much direct devaluation by China; rather they are intentionally allowing their currency to drop in value, in an effort to lower export prices and off-set any tariffs from the U.S.   Simultaneously, Beijing is spending internally, burning cash, to keep their economy from weakening.  Their Yuan burn rate is greater than the influx of higher valued dollars needed to hold their position.
They cannot keep this position indefinitely.
First, here’s a solid interview with former CEO Gerald Storch on how the currency devaluation leads to lower prices for U.S. consumers.  Again, emphasizing the point that U.S. consumers are not paying for the tariffs against China.  Watch:

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With President Trump announcing an additional ten percent tariff on $300 billion of Chinese products, the Chamber of Commerce worm, Tom Donohue, comes out to oppose.
An interesting juxtaposition between two interviews.  The first with National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, and the counter point by CoC President Dohohue:

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In the next interview Donohue surfaces… he has no choice.  Tom Donohue is paid tens of millions by the Wall Street multinationals to retain the current exploitative system of global trade.  Donohue has no influence over President Trump.
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