Housing starts (and permits) have been a long-term key performance indicator for the economic stability and strength of Main Street USA for generations. Across all key metrics, the economics of middle-class America is defined by confidence in housing. A strong housing market reflects worker/purchaser confidence in their economic position.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports today that U.S. housing starts and permits has reached a 12-year-high. [data here] This is a key point because it cuts to the heart of the difference between a thriving Main Street economy and the disconnect surrounding issues with Wall Street (multinational) financial markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August as both single- and multi-family housing construction accelerated, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

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This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.
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The recession-hoping pundits took more blows to their remaining credibility today when both the Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) deliver excellent economic results from August that continue to exceed MSM expectations.
The Commerce Dept. announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlights retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results come on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

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The European Central Bank (ECB) announced Thursday an indefinite supply of fresh asset purchases and deeper cuts to interest rates, into negative territory, as it tries to prop up the ailing euro zone economy.  These are EU financial counter-measures to the geopolitical trade realignment triggered by U.S. President Trump.
The EU is driving down the value of their currency in an effort to help prop-up the French and German economies that are dependent on exports.  In essence, the financial and economic positions of the EU and China are connected.  The more pressure the U.S. (Trump administration) puts on China, the less China can purchase from the EU.
With that as the backdrop, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds an impromptu press conference outside the White House on China trade, Huawei and the bond market.

 

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White House Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Peter Navarro appears on Fox News to discuss the current status of the U.S-China trade discussions and the USMCA.
Ms. Bartiromo points out how U.S. multinationals are holding back further investment in Asia due to ongoing President Trump tariffs.  Mr. Navarro points out there is no uncertainty if U.S. companies would invest in Main Street USA.
However, the Wall Street multinationals do not want to give up on their Asian investments and bring U.S. manufacturing jobs back to North America.  Hence the conflict between Wall Street/The Big Club and Main Street/President Trump.

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As Navarro noted, the narrative about October talks between the U.S. and China are driven by the collaborative financial interests of Beijing and Wall Street multinationals in an effort to create the image of something that doesn’t exist.  Prepare accordingly.
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Democrat president candidate Elizabeth Warren has made a campaign promise that is quite remarkable:

The consequences of such policy are not esoteric; they are very real and very serious.  Who would immediately benefit from Warren’s policy: Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela. Who would suffer, Americans.  Here’s how…
Within the first 24 hours of Elizabeth Warren’s presidency she is promising to dramatically raise the price of Oil and Natural Gas.  This will:

• Immediately hand Vladimir Putin hundreds of billions worth of enhanced Russian energy exports.  A windfall of economic growth that will mean Russian policy expansion globally.
• Support the regime of Venezuelan dictator Maduro who relies on oil production and pricing to keep his socialist government in place.
• Expand the influence of China; and increase the value of Beijing’s investments in Russian energy and 49% state in PDVSA (Venezuela).
• Immediately help the Iranian economy; enhance the stranglehold of power by the Mullah’s over the Iranian people; help fund terrorist actions globally, and specifically create terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya and Israel.
• Return U.S. policy and strategy back to a position of dependence on OPEC nations; so we can expect more U.S. military involvement in the middle-east (as above).

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The Gordian Knot of Brexit is based on a Parliamentary ruling class within the U.K. government who will not accept Great Britain leaving the European Union.
The elitist Members of Parliament (MP) have passed a law requiring Prime Minister Boris Johnson to forever stay in the EU until an agreement for terms of exit are reached.  However, the EU doesn’t want the U.K. to exit; so the consequence of the MP law is to ‘remain’ in the EU forever.  This elitist scheme has created the knot; and the majority of the British people -those who voted to ‘leave’- are insufferably bound within it.

In one approach to cutting the knot Prime Minister Boris Johnson has requested a national vote for government leadership on October 15th.  With a scheduled round of talks with the EU set for October 17th, a Boris Johnson election victory would create the needed momentum toward a hard-brexit (no deal) on October 31st.  Britain would, finally, be free.
However, the MP ruling class, those who say they know better than the people they are supposed to serve, know such a popular vote would upend their schemes – and likely lead to many of their alliance being removed from office.  So the elites will not support a national election that would lead to their own defeat. [More knot building].
A second knot-cutting tactic implied by the Prime Minister, is to ignore the insufferable law –recently passed and pending signature– and proceed toward a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on October 31st.
This approach could lead to the British Parliament being forced to vote against the Prime Minister (no confidence); and would set up a replacement election, which Boris Johnson wants anyway.  Actually, no-one is quite sure what will happen on this second knot-cutting avenue… no map available.
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As if, on cue:

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CTH readers are well versed in the dynamics of the Panda mask -vs- Dragon motives of China.  Therefore we are able to discuss events without the MSM financial filter; which is narrated specifically to the benefit of multinational interests.  Always keep that in mind.

Everything needed to understand the latest panda narrative from Beijing is identified in this simple paragraph:

(Beijing) […] The talks were supposed to have resumed this month but China’s commerce ministry said Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing’s pointman on trade, agreed to October in a phone call with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. (more)

First, anything from Vice Premier Liu He is panda-speak; he is a tool in the process of Chinese narrative engineering.  All former trade negotiation authority held by Liu He was stripped by Chairman Xi Jinping.  Commerce Minister Zhong Shan is the real voice of Xi and the Beijing authority.
Second, what exactly is Beijing selling?  An “October phone call”…. and that manipulates markets for the multinationals on Wall Street.  A friggin’ announcement of a phone call?
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After benefiting from ridiculous preferential treatment by the World Trade Organization under “emerging nation” status for the past two decades, Beijing now turns to the WTO and files a complaint against the U.S. over recent tariffs and countervailing duties.

The substance to Beijing’s complaint is silly.  China claims there was a “leadership agreement” during the Osaka G20 summit not to apply additional tariffs.  However, the latest round of U.S. tariffs on China were in response to Chinese tariffs applied after Osaka.  Bottom line, Beijing is playing political games.
China, once again playing the wounded panda routine, is trying to set up a narrative that President Trump has broken his word.  That’s the cornerstone of their position, and they know such a complaint won’t go anywhere at the WTO; the complaint is really for the use, exploitation, and consumption by President Trump’s political opposition, domestic and international.  (emphasis mine)

HONG KONG/GENEVA (Reuters) – China has lodged a complaint against the United States at the World Trade Organization over U.S. import duties, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Monday.

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