The Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has released the first estimate of the third quarter GDP growth for June, July and August 2018 (full pdf below).  The rate of economic growth in Q3 is estimated at 3.5%, exceeding most forecasts of slightly more than three percent.  The second quarter growth was 4.2%.

“Defying ‘conventional wisdom’ once again, 3.5 percent growth is the latest sign that the Trump economy continues to surge,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The President’s actions from deregulation to tax reform have supercharged the American economy, driving it to new heights.”

Overall the 3.5% growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.
Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.
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Biggest U.S. Trade Win in the History of all U.S. Trade Constructs !

I’m still going through the USMCA text (even speed reading, it will likely take a while); here’s the link to the AGREEMENT DETAILS.  However, many people have asked about how the NAFTA loophole was being closed.
Well, the answer is exactly what it had to be – there was really no option.  The U.S. now has veto authority over any trade deal made by Canada and/or Mexico with third parties.  This is what Ambassador Lighthizer described as the “Third pillar”.
Last year, despite the inevitability of it, we didn’t think Canada and Mexico would agree to it.  The NAFTA loophole was/is a zero-sum issue: Either Can/Mex agree to give veto authority to the U.S. –OR– President Trump had no option to exit NAFTA completely.
Well, Canada and Mexico have agreed to the former, so there’s no need for the latter.

(LINK to Article 32 pdf)

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Earlier today President Trump delivered remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House announcing the USMCA (U.S-Mexico-Canada-Agreement) trade construct. The agreement covers $1.2 trillion in annual trade.
Joining President Trump is: U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow, Ambassador Kelly Craft, White House Advisor Jared Kushner, Trade Council Peter Navarro and Chris Liddell, with Deputy U.S. Trade Representative CJ Mahoney.
Make sure to hear the remarks from Ambassador Lighthizer @25:41

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FACT SHEETS from USTR Offices:

• Overview Fact Sheet – SEE HERE
• Agriculture Fact Sheet (Dairy Sector) SEE HERE
• Agriculture Fact Sheet (Overall) SEE HERE
• Manufacturing Fact Sheet SEE HERE

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National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses administration’s new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. Chairman Kudlow also discussed the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross gives an interview to Fox Business Maria Bartiromo and discusses the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).  Secretary Ross notes the gains in e-commerce and the dairy industry.   Also worth noting, the Steel and Aluminum tariffs remain in place.

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10:30pm EST – The U.S. and Canada have agreed on a trade deal that would save the North American Free Trade Agreement as a trilateral bloc, according to three people familiar with the matter.
President Donald Trump has approved the developments and the expectation is that an agreement will be announced on Sunday night, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Canadian officials are working on the final touches.  (more)

All day various media have been reporting on desperate, intense, and generally fast-moving last minute negotiations as a midnight deadline looms for Canada to join the U.S-Mexico trade agreement.   Expect the critical details to be framed around “Side Letters”.  Carve-outs within an agreement which remove the contentious aspects.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland abandoned a U.N. speech to rush back to Canada on Friday night.  Tonight Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau went to Ottawa to join the Canadian negotiating team in a series of back-and-forth conference calls between the U.S. and Canadian government.  USTR Robert Lighthizer and trade envoy Jared Kushner have been briefing President Trump throughout the day.

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a late-night Cabinet meeting for Sunday amid signs that Canada and the United States were on the verge of sealing a deal to update NAFTA after frantic talks.
Negotiators from both sides spent two days talking by phone as they tried to settle a range of difficult issues such as access to Canada’s dairy market and U.S. tariffs.

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Someone tipped-off Trudeau.  An emergency series of last-minute phone calls surrounding the U.S-Mexico trade agreement has temporarily postponed releasing key details of the Mexico-U.S. trade agreement.  Within the granules of this most important economic negotiation, we’ll likely find out exactly why POTUS was highly preoccupied Friday.
According to Reuters reporting Justin from Canada called Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Thursday and asked him to use his influence to call the U.S. government requesting a delay so the Canadians could put a last-minute proposal into the mix.

Apparently someone finally informed Justin from Canada a bilateral trade strategy was hours away from being deployed.  Important Note: Justin did not call current Mexican President Peña Niéto, the call was made to President-Elect Lopez Obrador.

(Via Reuters) […] Lopez Obrador told reporters in Mexico City that Trudeau asked him during a Thursday phone call “to intervene and call on the U.S. government to reach an agreement” with Canada. “We agreed to that.”
He said that regardless of the outcome with Canada the language of the agreement between Washington and Mexico City was now final. “We are not going to re-open the negotiation. That you can be sure of,” Lopez Obrador said. (read more)

As with all financial media reporting on trade you have to read “through” the pro-globalist, pro-Wall Street, spin to see the more important background picture.  Wall Street, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the multinationals -together with Justin- are going bananas trying to retain maximum pressure against the White House in this U.S-Mexico deal.
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Every quarter, CNBC surveys its Global CFO Council to gain insight into the status of the current global economy.  The CFO council is comprised of Chief Financial Officers of the world’s largest 113 companies that combined are worth nearly $5 trillion.  Interestingly the council is comprised almost exclusively of multinational corporations who are generally opposed to President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade reset.
However, in the third quarter survey the CFO’s note that only one economy in the world is currently improving, the United States.

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During a U.N. press conference President Trump was asked if he rejected a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  President Trump affirmed he did reject a meeting over the ongoing conflict within the U.S-Canada trade issues.  CTH Readers will likely remember when President Trump was going to announce the U.S-Mexico trade deal, Trump attempted to call Trudeau in advance. Justin from Canada rejected the phone call.

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Justin and Chrystia from Canada have made a political decision to reject any trade negotiations in favor of using conflict with President Trump to aide their domestic political agenda. Justin and Chrystia are counting on U.S. political opposition to block POTUS Trump from ending the tri-lateral NAFTA deal.
However, what Justin and Chrystia have not considered (nor anyone else), was U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and President Trump anticipated a political approach several months ago. No-one dissects the details within a contract better than Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. He is legendary in the business world for this specific skill-set.
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There has been a great deal of background activity in the past 72 hours surrounding the U.S. and Canada trade negotiations.  However, some of that activity has become more brutally obvious; a deal is not likely to happen.
Against growing visibility the Canadian team of Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland were intent on using opposition to Trump for maximum domestic gain, President Trump declined a bilateral meeting with Justin from Canada at the U.N. General Assembly; and today U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told a group an agreement was unlikely.
Additionally, in a video taken today during the U.N. luncheon it is clear President Trump has no time for the political schemes of Justin Trudeau. The moment happens at 02:45 of the video below:

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It is difficult to see from the video above, however in the camera angles below it is much more transparent.
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