One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.  Within obscure data, raw and unfiltered up-stream activity, it is entirely possible to see over the horizon.

But newly engaged people also think I’m nuts; so therefore it is also fun conversation at parties to stand above the esoteric academic fray, smile and outline actual forecasts –very specific forecasts– that most would never consider possible from a linear perspective.

People pay a boat-load of money for proprietary ownership of very accurate forecasts.  However, CTH would rather do it open source and break the historic grip of the financial control class.

If you’ll permit me a little Funday indulgence; the other reason to share predictable consequences is so patriotic readers can take a pro-active and empowering position in their own decision-making.  That motive was one of the reasons for previously sharing:

[…]  Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

• Regional areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on state finances, and the retail and high-end service industry will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas/middle-class areas, with affordable housing and reasonable infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  However, those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it. (link)

Now check out this headline from AP today discussing Connecticut:

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Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney appears on Disgrace the Nation to discuss the ongoing ObamaCare reform efforts against the House passage of the repeal and replace legislation.

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Health and Human Service Secretary Tom Price appears on very fake news CNN with Jake Tapper to discuss ongoing ObamaCare legislative reform and replacement efforts.

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Are people beginning to catch on? Are people beginning to identify the long-ball strategy of a non-traditional approach toward geo-political alliances?

Apparently, some are – because North Korea is not happy with the heavy pressure coming from Big Panda, China.  As identified within this radio interview between Dr. Gorka and Brian Kilmeade…

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I don’t want to say, I told you so… but:

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to be cowering to the demands of British Columbia Provincial Premier Christy Clark who asked for retaliatory trade action against Oregon and the Pacific Northwest after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced a tariff on Canadian soft-wood imports.

Yesterday (Friday) Prime Weasel Trudeau threatened to ban shipments of U.S. thermal coal from Pacific ports and suggesting sanctions against additional trade products from Oregon due to the support for the soft-wood tariff by Democrat Senator Ron Wyden.

ENERGY ECON […] Trudeau said Ottawa would study whether to stop U.S. firms from shipping thermal coal via the Pacific province of British Columbia. Provincial Premier Christy Clark asked for the ban in response to the U.S. tariffs.

Canada is also considering duties on exports from Oregon such as wine, flooring and plywood, said a source close to the matter, citing Oregon Democratic Senator Ron Wyden’s prominent role in pressing for the lumber tariffs.

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Earlier today President Donald Trump signed HR244 into law.  The provisional spending bill that funds government through September 30th, the end of fiscal year 2017.

There has been a great deal of anxiety amid punditry about the spending outline itself, and the spending priorities as determined by both houses of congress.  Some of the criticism is warranted, most is not.

The basic principle the entire professional political class seem to overlook is the reasoning for the CR itself.  Congress has been unable to fulfill its budgetary obligation since 2007.

In fact, the last federal budget (fiscal year ’08) was signed into law in September of 2007.  By the conclusion of this CR it will have been an entire decade without a federal budget.

Perspective: ♦ Over half of all elected federal politicians have never held elected office in any year with a federal budget in place.  ♦ Almost two-thirds of Republicans in congress have never known a federal budget for a single day in office.

THAT FACT should be the target of the ire from all Americans, particularly conservatives.  However, hypocritically, it is not.

For some reason ankle-biters, antagonists, and crony constitutional punditry amid the various CONservative outlets, choose instead to focus their criticism toward the first president in our lifetime to actually deliver on conservative policy, conservative values and expressed policy objectives/outcomes that benefit all common sense Americans.

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[Transcript] My fellow Americans,

Since Day One, my administration has been hard at work, tearing down the barriers to job creation and economic growth. We have removed one job-killing regulation after another – they’re not pretty and they’re going. And believe me, we are just getting started on regulations. They’re gone.

On Thursday, the House voted to repeal one of the worst job-killing laws of all. It’s called ObamaCare, perhaps you’ve heard of it. Everywhere we look, ObamaCare is collapsing. The House Bill is a plan that will save Americans from this disaster, and replace it with more choices, and more freedom for American families. Most importantly, it will be great healthcare, and your premiums will come down, and your deductibles will come down. So you’ll have better healthcare at a lower cost. And now, I’m calling on the Senate to take action. Repealing and replacing ObamaCare will be a big, big win for the American People.

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During a ceremony today at the State Department, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson delivered remarks of remembrance and honored fallen foreign service workers.

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The media gnats, and some doofus conservative punditry, quip about President Trump talking to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, seemingly oblivious to the fact that Duterte is also the rotational President of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).  Meanwhile, President Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson remain keenly focused on the BIGGER PICTURE in Asia and how ASEAN policy relates to N-Korea.

Thankfully the grow-ups are in charge.

STATE DEPT – Secretary of State Tillerson hosted the Foreign Ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for a special U.S.-ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting, reinforcing the Strategic Partnership between the United States and ASEAN and commemorating the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations.

Secretary Tillerson underscored that the Asia-Pacific region is a top priority for the Trump Administration and that ASEAN is an essential partner. ASEAN Ministers welcomed the continued commitment by the United States to ASEAN, including the Association’s community-building and regional integration efforts.

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The federal April jobs report shows a gain of 211,000 new jobs amid a 2.5% year-over-year growth in wages, bringing the latest national unemployment rate to 4.4% or what the federal economists call the ‘cusp’ of full employment.  They are, well, ‘positioning’ an advanced narrative.

DATA – •Construction payrolls rose by 5,000; •manufacturing payrolls increased by 6,000; •leisure and hospitality payrolls jumped by 55,000; •professional and business services payrolls rose by 39,000; •healthcare and social assistance employment increased by 36,800; •retail payrolls gained 6,300.

That’s the official interpretation of what the jobs gains mean.  However, to reconcile the “slacking” the quantifying economists are now halving the customary growth figure used for inbound newly economically matriculated workers.

Historically it takes 150k new monthly jobs to retain employment rates as static; therefore any job growth beyond 150k must lower the unemployment rate. The fed is now using 70-100k as the new labor market number to retain stasis.

Bloomberg – […] Removed from the weather-related distortions of the previous three months, the April figures indicate solid trends in employment, while measures of those left behind in the recovery — favored by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and President Donald Trump alike — are at or near pre-recession levels.

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